We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well at least it was brief
FO earache. Stop filling this bb up with your relentless, tedious, verbose crap. No-one's interested.
Majority here are LTH with positions already so not seeing the usual rise prior to results. Maybe tomorrow?
double digit % growth net year
45-50 & double digit growth stated by CFO will do me nicely
CFO said 45m to 50m CF is
expecting more
Did Cathal not say that he is looking at 50 million in revenue?
I think he should know best.
Ryan, you make some good points, however, don't confuse any upfront payments with revenue recognition as the timing of the two can be very different.
As part IFRS revenue can only be recognised at the point of delivery. So whilst the final study results will be key here earlier payments are allowed e.g. maybe 20% when agreed number of volunteers are finalised prior to the beginning of the study etc.
Similar view as others, if we see 40-something for full year outlook it’s compelling (to me), H1 equivalent to full FY20. Broker reports suggest £46/47m and that’s after the known Gov challenge study delays.
Two key drivers for me re Core business growth, given close to capacity, (and first one feels a bit closer than the second, hoping that might be confirmed next week) 1) Any news on SGS tie up, and 2) Gov sign off. First one, gives Orph access to incremental £30-£40mn p/a if 24 beds available, and similar, if not higher at Royal Free, assuming COVID contracts > £10mn. If pipeline isn’t an issue, which CF has suggested it isn’t in the media rounds after the Asthma RNS, 14 or so deals in the pipeline (non-COVID), any additional capacity should be mopped up quickly. That creates a really strong growth story for revenue beyond FY21 and gives investors confidence there is scope to continue growing.
Anything EBIT +ve for FY21 outlook would be great - I know brokers are calling it higher - but slightly hesitant here given investment in COVID CHIM, A.Wildfire et al, additional Flu Camp screening centres…Some infrastructure going in where revenue will lag e.g. Gov contracts, but guess we’ll know for sure in 3 days.
Beyond that, would really help if we hear news on Imutex or DiM.
A lot of news due, and given low trading volumes at the moment, need some momentum back and only see that coming off 3-4 RNSs in quick succession.
Ones we are aware of:
- SGS Capacity
- Challenge study sign off / Trial confirmation.
- Codagenix - feels that it will drop once Gov sign off complete.
- Things have been mooted re a Benelux link - unclear on details
- Imutex - next steps
- First Malaria CHIM study
- Anti-Viral task force - not sure how much Hvivo vs Oxford, but CF has mentioned anti-virals.
- DiM - think laying foundations Q4 but assume a couple of months to complete.
- PrepB - as above
- Number of country collaborations possible - US, EU, Vietnam etc…?
- China
- Pneumococcus CHIM agent
Just my views - appreciate others might see things differently…
They have mentioned c. 6 months lead time and then 2 months to complete, so 8 months-ish to recognise all the revenue. There will be milestones as to when each stage complete and also accounting rules (IFRS) that dictate when you can recognise the contract in your revenue.
Is the odd contract e.g. Ampligen which they have looked to complete quicker I.e. squeeze into this FY.
It is normal for new contracts to not have all of their value recognised immediately and so some revenue from recent contract wins will not be realised until H2 (or beyond) dependant on their completion dates.
Quite, the point is you've made fairly assumptions on the £12.5m gov apportionment, and you've assumed contract value / date won = amount paid in H1 - this is not the case. SOME of those fees will have been realised in H1, not the total contract values as most here have noted. Again, I would LOVE to hit your estimates - but to expect them is to put it mildly bold. I remain upbeat at a more modest level then your own expectations.
No doubt that yours is an honest opinion Ryan, but aren't you assuming that all that unaccounted-for-revenue will be recognised? It may be that the unaccounted-for part grows rather than disappears. And revenue is only half the story, of course, the real issue is whether CF has got the ballooning costs under control yet or not, imo.
Hi Ryan,
I'm not sure all of the more recent contract win revenue will be realised in H1.
immutex is 49% owned so we can only go at the pace of the Seek, regardless of what CF says/hopes.
DIM is 100% owned, so no excuses there IMHO
"Cathal insinuated that there was news pending weeks ago."
Now where have I heard that before!
I was under the impression Imutex was going to be the next big news.
Cathal insinuated that there was news pending weeks ago.
Cap - i think 2 brokers have revs for 2021 at c£46m so i'd go with that - although CF has said he wants £50m, let's be conservative.
I would be surprised if H1 is more than £25m rev, although partly depends on how much of the UK govt contract is applied to this period.
It's the EBITDA positive that's the key for me. I'm hoping for say £3m EBITDA and maybe £1m overall loss as i think there are c£4m one off costs in H1 to do with spin off costs and balance sheet reorganisation in preparation of a div etc.
What we need to avoid is say a small EBITDA profit of say £1m and an overall loss of nearer £5m.
Clear full year guidance is also a must as is clear timescales for DIM. The next few months is no longer acceptable (although accept for Immutex this may be unavoidable).
lol nice try guys haha - some serious deramping attempts here. Post a figure, then decry when that figure isn't met (because it was a ridiculous figure haha). To EXPECT 30-35 in H1 is ludicrous. If it happens - AMAZING, but that quite clearly isn't an honest and valid expectation. Anything above £20m would be a solid indication that we're on track for the full year profitability echoed by Cathal Friel. I'm anticipating 20-25, but hey if we hit your lofty 30-35 knowing H2 will be a bigger order book then thumbs up - just don't expect it and then come up with some nonsense in a weeks time that all is lost if it isn't met.
Get all that. Same is true for adv payments that flattered end of year cash postion. Point is can't see revenue being in 30s or even high 20s when forecast is 40-45M for year and it's H2 weighted.
Get all that. Same is true for adv payments that flattered end of year cash postion. Point is can't see revenue being in 30s or even high 20s when forecast is 40-45M for year and it's H2 weighted.
Trade and other receivables would be invoiced amounts not yet received at bs date i.e. 31st May. For sales you have to add amounts already received plus June invoices
The trade receivables is in the context of the assets at the stated point in time i.e. 31st May. That should be outstanding invoices at the 31st May, so £11.7mn billed for, payments to be received. It's not linked to the Income Statement in terms of when revenue is recognised.
You could assume if a say 60 day payment term, £11mn is due in which gives a feel for run rate of the business.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07514939/filing-history
The unaudited financial accounts to 31 May 2021 (posted on this BB a few months back) showed trade and other receivables of 11.7M for the first 5 months. Guidance was revenue and proftiability would be H2 weighted, with total revenue aiming to be in order of 40-45M for the year, so H1 likely to be EBITDA +ve (as per recent CF statements) and net profit -ve. If it was widely different to this, the SP would not be where it's at.