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I think the 50k & 100k chunks are mainly the seller but yes I also think the 25k chunks could very easily be the seller. The 50k & 100k chunks tend to be sold around the same time everyday, which helps when tracking the trades. The last 2 days have been over 1m in chunks.. today the seller only sold around 500-600k, as far as I can see.. less volume so less opportunity potentially. Weighs out the average though. Still working on the week 24th - 28th of August for seller being out, will be delighted if they are out before, any later than the 31st of August and then I’ll be confused/concerned, only in the short term though.
Deepjoy mentioned that the potential US hedgefund selling the remaining 25m shares that were sold to them by Acacia have to report their holdings on the 15th? Will be interesting to see what comes of that, maybe they want to be out by then.
Also.. Just so you all know.. I look everyday at the after hours delayed trades that come through.. and in the whole time since the selling started back in June we’ve really had no delayed buys show up, however in the last 2-3 days we’ve seen reasonably big delayed buys show up after hours, I take this as a really big positive.. a sign of where we are at I would say! Maybe institutions Are getting in now that they know the selling is coming to an end, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve been informed by the broker involved in the selling or by Open Orphan directly when to expect the selling to end, I find it coincidental that my calculations have the selling coming to an end around the mid to end of August and Funnily enough in the last few days we’ve had big delayed buy’s.. something is going on! It’s all positive that’s for sure. :)
Andrew, maybe some of the recent repeat 25k sells too into lower volume?
Interesting that BBurg back on the bid at 13.5p.
Educated guess based on following the chunks sold daily (the seller tends to sell at pretty much the same time during the day each day) it’s normally always in chunks of 50k or 100k, occasionally they sell 70,75 or 80k chunks. I’ve worked it out to be on average around 650-750k a day. I think if it’s at the lower end they are out by the 31st of August.. if it’s around 700-750k they are out by the end of next week. If we still have selling going in to September I’ll be confused, and a little concerned. Long term I’m very optimistic though.
The bottom line here that we suspect we know who the seller is, we know their margins from 12.2p and the technical retrace position from when they became active. My strategy not buying at these levels and not selling either. It could end at any time but if it doesn't; well I've shoved a long limit buy order in at 12.8p. If it doesn't execute in the next two weeks I am not bothered but if it does I have got another real bargain. Eight months waiting wont be eight months ahead :)
Andrew, thanks for that. It’s the single reason why the SP is being dragged along, so short term it’s important. I’ve contacted OO a few times to get some background. Can I ask why you believe they are selling around 640-750k a day? Just a hunch, educated guess or more solid reason? Thanks in advance
As much as I’d love to say they are, they aren’t out yet, but there isn’t long left to go I’m certain of that.
I’ve posted before but I have it worked out to be that the seller will be around around the week starting the 24th of August.. I see the average daily selling to be around 650-750k. If we were to have 700k straight for the period of time it would take to sell all the shares being sold by the seller, we are looking at the 24th of August. I said a few weeks ago that as we get closer to the seller being out the share price will slowly rise as the brokers take us nearer to re-rate territory and clearing the seller. Good times are coming.. we ain’t got long to go now. (This is all my own opinion & research, I could be wrong, I am just sharing my thoughts. ????)
The key is watching Berenburg on the order book. Interesting today if they keep the bid at 13.8 or move back on the offer and push it down a tick.
I agree with you that the bottom has come up slightly and probably around the 13.5 mark for now. That’s my hope anyway as that’s what I’m looking for to top up again. I think we’ve left the 12-13 range we Held in for some time and with any developments we will leave the 13-14 range we’re in now. IMHO
I'd suggest that Acacia are out and Starboard are nearly but not quite out. Volume is lower so sells in smaller less frequent round figure tranches. Berenburg keeping the bid up and raising it gradually, the bottom is possibly around 13.5p now. IMO DYOR.
I’m not convinced. Same MM as has been for 2 months controlling the book. They just want 14 p instead of 13p last week and 12p the month before. Good news is it appears they are in the last throws.
If i was a betting man, which i am, i am willing to bet 50p that the seller is out. It has been a much different book the past few days. What do you folks think?