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No worries,
Yes their DD process is very comprehensive and their reputation is paramount to them being a family business so you can rest assured that the ongoing relationship with ORPH will be very supportive and very valued on both sides.
Thanks for that Ivyspivey. I’m assuming your company is more than happy with the relationship to date. Have a good weekend.
Yes was in last presentation
Yep got the exact same feeling from reading those posts
Has ORPH yet released they’ve done a deal with your company yet ivyspivey
Evening Demon G,
Absolutely correct there will continue to be a big demand for all kinds of tests Antigen and Antibody and point of care and lab based.The best ones in each category and offering a USP will be the real winners.
The big winners will have to be accurate in terms of specificity and sensitivity that is a given when there are lots of competitors but a lot depends on
availability.distribution,price,convenience,rapidity etc.
There is a place for most of them but there are so many folk who are invested in other shares who seek to make their particular offering as being the only one that matters.
However there is so much more to ORPH with Flu Vax and many others.
The client list is very impressive and these contacts and having the likes of CF involved are not to be underestimated.
My own Company signed an agreement with ORPH earlier this year and they would not do that unless they thought it was a very serious and credible outfit.
Anyway enjoy rest of w/ end
I think both Antigen and Antibody tests both have their market. For instance, if you’re boarding a flight I would say each individual will get the antigen test prior to flying, anyone found having Covid-19 will not be allowed to fly. This a one-off situation which will determine whether or not there’s an immediate danger. If you are an employer I would use an antibody test. You wouldn’t use an antigen test as it’s not practical to do so, for instance, first day back at work for a full workforce get an antigen test, all pass, there is no one in the workforce who has Covid-19 - superb! However, that night after work Joe Bloggs goes to the pub/ supermarket and gets in contact with someone who has Covid-19, suddenly he contracts it, he goes to work next day an£ suddenly the full workforce is subjected to a carrier. In order for it to work you would need to test every day - that is is just not feasible and would certainly be way too expensive for the vast majority of companies. Yes, there is a no scientific evidence to prove immunity but I know if I were a business leader which one I would be using for my employees.
so transparent from your first post
Hi barwickman, you are correct! Certainly not panicked, seems reasonably de-risked now (as much as it can be, without having a product). Also, orginally bought in at 40 so have a very low average, no doubt there's many who have been spiked though. It was a bloodbath last week.
This is my third largest holding at present, out of 11. We should all do well, but I'm not expecting to see any dramatic movement here for the time being. Very confident it will pay off in time, though.
Hants sounds like your all in in AVCT, and a small saver in ORPH, think your starting to panic now , GL.
It’s a great article and is an additional revenue stream that wasn’t even part of our planned 3 months ago. £100 a test, that’s £109.2M optimum per machine per year, if successful you can times that by 2. Our MCap is starting to look silly now with everything else in the pipeline too. Exciting times ahead. GLA
Like you said hants we're not in this solely for the covid play but even as the sun article showed, people could have already had the virus with no symptoms so there is a market for both.
I don't think the Government have handled much of this particularly well, so what they think doesn't really impact my opinion.
IMO the same principle of 'special treatment' applies with people getting back to work because:
1) The furlough scheme can't last forever
2) 80% of pay for some people is fine, but many live pay cheque to pay cheque won't be able to absorb that hit.
If large number of people want to get back to work because they need the money (and no doubt that's a sizeable % of the population), those people will actively seek to catch covid-19 (possibly seeing it as inevitable anyway, so let's just get on with it) - I don't see how that wouldn't create a massive spike in new cases thus sending us full circle back into lockdown?
Please don't think I've come on here just to cross promote. I deliberately didn't mention Avacta previously because that's exactly how it would be seen. This is just a discussion on anti-body testing, but there's no point hiding from the fact there's likely to be a signifcant change in the landscape very soon (assuming their 10min test actually works and is sensitive/specific enough - current uknown factors of course).
I'm not really sure that you should be promoting the type of antigen test Avacta do on this bulletin board hants. But to answer your specific points, firstly even the PM and Health Secretary have said the key to getting back to work is the antibody test.
To my knowledge, only one person (from South Korea I believe) was thought to have caught Covid-19 a second time, although it seems the first time was counted twice, so there does seem to be some immunity.
You may well have a point about the antibody passport, but I believe it would do more good than harm.
If 20% of the workforce could safely go back to work, as is suspected in parts of the country, it could mean the difference between companies surviving or folding. It would mean there could be some return to normality.
The antigen test only helps point out if you currently have Covid-19 of course, not if you've had it. There's a place for both, but the antibody test is far from being a tool to help with statistics, it's the test that will get the country working again.
Hi Rudey,
My apologies. I've come accross so many people who don't understand there's a difference or have them back to front.
Yes, but I'm talking about people being able to take an instant anti-gen test, without the need for a lab and a delay in getting a result. You've latched onto where I've said 'anti-gen' and ignored the '10 minute' part. The latter is the game changer, not the former. In addition there should soon be the ability to that on mass, globally.
I don't understand why you think anti-body tests will get people back to work then?
As said, immnunity isn't proven. It may well be in due course, however even if that happens the issue remains with giving people special treatment. If that where to happen, people who believe they're healthy and not at risk will go out trying to catch it in order to get a 'passport'. It would surely create a huge spike? I think that's massive hole in that proposed solution!
The Government are moving towards 'track and trace', which means finding people who have Covid-19 NOW and doing it on a massive scale. At this moment, currently that demand for anti-gen testing cannot be met at the necesarry scale and the results take too long anyway - meaning people are going about their business infected in the meantime. That looks set to change in the coming weeks.
Furthermore, in terms of getting people back to work - surely it's better to have the whole workforce back to work and just keep testing and isolating prompty and as required? Your proprosal would take months or even years?
Are you taking the Michael hants? I do know the difference.
CF suggested from the experts he's spoken to that there will be 3 years immunity approximately, although that of course hasn't been proven, perhaps longer if a vaccine is used.
Surely you know antigen tests have been around a lot longer than antibody tests. After all, you are invested in AVCT.
Hi Rudey
Anti-gen tells you if you CURRENTLY HAVE Covid-19
Anti-body tells you if you've HAD Covid-19
There's no evidence to show that if you've had Covid-19 you have immunity and if you do, to what extent and for how long.
It's really important to understand the difference between the two.
Agree I can’t stand rampers. We are lucky we don’t have many here... apart from a few idiots saying 30+ last week. 30+ will come but in late Q3 I imagine. Never been so confident in a share.
Strange, I thought Covid-19 antigen tests had been around a long time, and Covid-19 antibody tests had only just come to market. It's the antibody tests that will get the world back to work. You've got it the wrong way round hants.
Agreed the covid testing will dilute as more pharmas come up with other quicker tests but the good thing about OO is that antibody testing is just 1 string to their bow. Challenge studies for covid or non covid vaccines is another. Then theres anti virals and then the big boy! Immutex $$$$
Sogamla,
Yes I completely agree. OO is a great investment and I won't be selling any of my shares any time soon! I don't want anybody to think I'm knocking this share. My concern is with anti-body testing generally, not OO as an investment.
It just seems there's a few people who jumped on board here for the anti-body testing. I've seen the cross ramping on other boards too saying 'it's going to fly' and all the usual stuff. OO is a great medium to long term play. Anybody who's jumped in for the hope of a quick profit on the back of testing will be dissapointed IMO.
NST,
Yes fully appreciate that.
Anti-body testing is great for statistics and we've seen these tests come through faster than anti-gen because they're easier, making them more common at present.
I think the problem will be that once the public wise up to it, nobody will want an anti-body test. I don't think the Government can give any special treatment, a so called 'passport', even if immunity is proven for the reason stated below. It could cause chaos.
I think we are going to see massive changes in the testing landscape over the next few weeks. Once there is 10 minute anti-gen testing on the market, it will allow mass screening and I think that's going to be the direction this goes and will mark the beginning of the return to normality accross the globe. The appearance of that within the market will no doubt put a serious financial dent in many of the other Covid-19 testing stocks.
Hants I don’t think anyone believes this is what makes open orphan. We had no idea about until a few weeks ago. But it is a great string to our bow don’t you think? Could earn us millions.
Open Orphan is going to go from strength to strength. So many different revenue streams, in reality we are currently only valued on our pre-covid business, 30+ million on pre-covid business we should be worth 100 million when profitable (Q3).
You can judge how valuable CF thinks anything covid related is to the company by looking at the Open Orphan website.