The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Earache, have a look through old hVivo RNS about Pathomics and you'll discover where a lot of the extra Poolbeg IP is coming from. I've posted about this previously. They have some genuinely innovative approaches that were only half developed under old management
Nope sold at the open yesterday before the second gap down..
Still have a 4 Model 3's worth..
I'm not sure that p/e is particularly helpful in this case, though you have based it on the projections provided.
It's useful to keep an eye on, but this company has really only been around for a few months, and is finding its feet, plus taking opportunistic advantage of the current situation, and launching and funding various spin outs.
Free cash is useful, though we won't know that until the interims. It's difficult to find useful metrics until then.
Demon G,
What can I say but ....cheers !
I think JW is Maurice Treacy.....
pint = point :-)
Justin Waite is JW. He first promoted Open Orphan when it was circa 6p, you'll find an analysis there. Also, Maurice Treacy did a presentation back in 2019 about the genomic database which you may find helpful. As investors have pointed out, circumstances change and as a business you need to be prepared to change, as opportunities present themselves but its always good to have a rounded pint of view when it comes to investing. Good luck.
Man up Bronxville - you made the classic mistake of selling at the bottom. That's always a bit sore.
Hi Jaxonsax
My misread, apols.
Hi Demon G,
Never say 'Never again' !
You've obv been an LTH, could you help me out with : .."JW did a good analysis of it on Youtube, if you want to search and look back.."
Who is JW, pls ? I'll take it from there.
Re contracts, I'd noted that 4 customers account for 83% of (2020) revenue.....and that this MAY not include HMG (there's no mention in Chairman's statement of the Royal Free when talking about bed capacity, I wonder whether that's been re-allocated during the 8 months since contract award/ ethics approval delay/prolonged characterisation study ?
So, lots of tyre-kicking still to do !
TIA
its a forward P/E based on the next years projected numbers so how can it be a 'lagging indicator' - a historic P/E id agree
.." forward P/E of 45x..for a company that has no track record of profitability that doesn't look especially cheap.."
In a turnaround, is PE - which is a 'lagging indicator' - the appropriate yardstick ?
Sales will show the trend sooner, AIUI, and if ORPH shows good cost control, operating leverage will prompt a higher multiple.
The lack of visibility re staff costs (£ 15m) and other expenses (no detail) £ 6m are a concern, I've asked the Company for more info.
good point. Looks like there may be tax losses of around £8m from reading the accounts so that may be true for a year or so but bear in mind the CT rate also increases to 25% from 2023
Never thought I'd say this but maybe a little rampy from Extrader ;) Hope you are well Ex. Although I'm not much under that figure. Certainly more value to the parts being split and spun than hiding in the closet. As for CF, he's not a life style CEO, he's a hard worker that puts his money where his mouth is, he has the gift of the gab and although he may over sell a little, It's damn good having someone selling your investment. He does deliver unlike some that sell and don't deliver. I know which I prefer. Looking forward to the future here. Lots of shareholder goodies.
Jaxon, I'm not sure that your tax figures are correct. There should be carried forward losses to negate most taxes for several years wouldn't you think?
Jax - I think they are looking to exceed expectations, also, there are enough cumulative losses to nullify any tax charges
Jimzi. If you are fully booked, you know much revenue you’ve got coming in - end of.
does not tie into the statements he has made previous and contradicts it.
Er - businesses are dynamic - a boss manages according to constant changing events.
This micro dissection of everything and trying to cross reference it to past comments is pointless - do you want him to manage or be King Canute?
if you take the market expectation mentioned by Leo last night of EBITDA £7-9m (so say mid point £8m)
Take off DA of £2.1m (as last year)
apply tax at 19%
you get post tax earnings of c£4.8m
Current market cap £220m
therefore forward P/E of 45x
for a company that has no track record of profitability that doesnt look especially cheap
I second that Demon..
And if it weren't for the space that Hvivo is in I'd probably be all out..
Extrader. Ok, this will be my last post on this (thank god I hear you scream,lol). In terms of valuation, I'm purely basing it on core business, the non core stuff does have value but they have zero value on the BS, and in terms of valuing these assets, its pure and utter guess work, what I do know is, they all need deep investment to get them valuable and over time they may well be worth 10/20p but your shares will be diluted somewhat. So, time and patience they "may" come good - no guarantee and highly speculative.
The one non core which could start tomorrow is DIM, its a gem and will not need huge investment to get it up and running. You can collect revenues pretty much straight away, so there's no cash impact. If you are an investor and you have a spare £1B in your back pocket, its the one I would buy tomorrow - no doubt. All your top wearable companies will be wanting our data, so this has the potential to be huge. The one caveat - if you look back in presentations from 2 years ago, they were saying the same about the genomic data, (JW did a good analysis of it on Youtube, if you want to search and look back). Never materialised, we were supposed to be getting revenue from this last year - still waiting.
All I'm saying is, be cautious, don't believe everything that a company tells you or wants you to believe, you let the figures do the talking.
Core business - last year during the height of the pandemic, CF stated we were pretty much fully booked (later on in the year, he conveyed we were fully booked to Y/E 21, so you would assume we were fully booked last year).He also stated that at full capacity we should see revenues of £40-£50M for QMB work. He also had slides showing revenue for Venn (at full capacity) between £15-£20M. He also launched the testing (which has obviously been an unmitigated disaster) showing revenue of £10-£20M. He also, stated that were in talks with 12 of the leading companies looking for Covid-19 CS's, of which he expected to get at least 8 or 9 (this subsequently fell to 6). Outside the govt contract, we have signed one. The Govt contract is fantastic, and it's also not using up our capacity as we have been given the Royal Free - amazing deal! But as for our own core business its a poor return (so far!).
His £50M estimate (which is just hearsay, as he's not actually committed to it in a forecast), does not tie into the statements he has made previous and contradicts it.
For FY21
Venn at full capacity should be bringing in £20M min.
QMB should be bringing in £50M min
Royal Free should be bringing in £20m min
Either we are fully booked or not, and if we are and contracts prices are rising then surely he can commit to a higher figure. The QMB does not bring in £40-£50M annually, if you look back in one previous presentation he let slip what it actually brings in and its about half this figure. All I'm saying is, don't believe everything he tells you. Wishing everyone the very best. Over and out
One thing is for certain, free shares in a company cannot lose you money (unless ORPH tanks short term following spin off)
We are all in for additional gains across our ORPH + associated spin offs, but its very difficult to ascertain how much.
I would love an equivalent value of £1 ORPH share within 12 months, whatever the micro breakdown is per equivalent holding.
My overall % return on my original ORPH investment will always need to factor in the value of the subsequent free spin offs. I see a pretty decent return as of today. The potential is massive
Hi Extra trader,
I think your valuations are reasonable based on available info and as you say could be too high or too low we simply can’t predict.
However what I love about here is the fact there is so little downside as compared to the upside so me and many others are prepared to put a big amount in here.
Some say there are better opportunities elsewhere and they may be right but I would say that is almost certainly to come with increased attendant risk so if you want to risk big money the potential downside is probably more important to me than the potential upside.
Many of the LTH Will already be in good profit but many have bought more and if CF buys a lot more as he has stated I will take that as an excellent vote of confidence
Hi Dingodog 1 - Doh ! great point.....
Let's see what others come up with, then maybe we'll get a consensus view aka 'the wisdom of the crowd'.
Agree it's probably finger in the air stuff. But the 10-20% (3-6p) is uncannily close to what happened when we went xr, isn't it ?
I had to start somewhere and appreciate your feedback.
How does EV (which includes debt) for spin-offs tie in with 'value to 'rumpcoORPH' shareholder' ? We base MCap on s/p only. Isn't that what CF's done ?