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Mikelma,Becontrarian.I actually agree with most of what you guys say.
I know its a small management team and all this stuff takes .
Trust in management (or one particular person in this case)has to be factored in here as well.
Thanks BC. I think the reason the spin offs are zero value, and won't affect the MCap, is that they will be separate companies once spun off and will have have their own destiny, not linked to OO, unless OO retains a holding. It seems revenue is the driving factor for OO share price at the moment, unless the other factors I mentioned come into play.
Fair assessment mikelma. I’d say current SP is a very conservative reflection of the ‘sum of the parts’ but whilst it remains as such, this is where we will stay. Something I’ve mentioned before is the UK markets lack that ‘venture’ spirit and so potential here isn’t built into the SP. you only have to look at a firm like Tesla to see that culturally, the US market attributes a lot to potential whereas here is seems valued at 0 haha.
Yesterday there was a bit of discussion about spin outs impacting on SP. I think it would have a positive influence and I’ll tell you why. If the current SP doesn’t really take into account spin outs (which most agree it doesn’t), then that means with each spin out, core Orph moves closer to becoming a saleable, streamlined commodity. As I’ve also said, it removes uncertainty, which the market hates. At the moment there is too much uncertainty with OO, especially imutex. That one is driving me mad to be honest. I think the uncertainty is weighing heavy on the SP.
So three times revenue (approx) gives us the MCap we're at, and would appear to be stable unless we increase capacity and add more contracts, sign Covid contracts, or get revenue from elsewhere. Otherwise we'll sit here for a while. Being profitable is a big bonus, and more profitable contracts would certainly apply upward pressure to the share price. DIM, Prep and Imutex, are zero value at the moment (assuming 3 x revenue is driving the MCap), but are free dividends for those that hold OO shares when they go ex-divi, with potential to grow big as separate companies. Seems to make some sense. There could be an argument made for more than 3 x revenue, possibly up to 6 in a rose tinted world, if we are viewed as a high growth company, or NASDAQ is beckoning, or we become a target for takeover. Is that a fair summary?
Yes I think I touched a nerve with earache/Jim Beann as my last two posts removed. It’s funny how they like dishing out dirt on CF but when they get sounded out they get posts removed! Creepy trolls confirmed!
Agree re filter button. Have recently filtered several relentless happy clappers whom I no longer give any credence to. CF really needs to put up, and put up soon. I really genuinely hope he does. Slapping down people for pointing out some of the glaring disconnects between what he has promised and what he has failed to deliver *without him taking any time to explain why things have slipped* does not make you come across as a "loyal believer". It makes you look like a ramper with an agenda. I think a lot of PI's will be ditching here soon if there isn't substantial news within the next month or so but I really hope to be persuaded otherwise asap. Too many promises no longer making sense especially re imutex and spin out promises. As for that cash dividend, and "the share price doubling every 6 months"...
Yes Elrico the filter button is a godsend.
You I'll keep because you clearly see both sides of the story.
Ah, just spotted it. How mad is that!!
What filter? Are you confusing AD VFN with LSE? I wish LSE did have a filter, it would make reading some forums much easier.
Green,
"If we run with the assumption that DiM will get away at £75mn (£50mn plus £25mn raised), that £50mn is 7p a share…"
As we know from history, business strategy evolves and changes. All things being equal, CF has said future spinouts will not need to raise funds as POLB did, therefore more of the value shared with investors. However, the last time I spoke to CF, he agreed that keeping c20% of DIM on the ORPH books was a strategy worth value for future dividends to ORPH investors.
I am sure he also suggested, or should say, agreed with my hypothesis DIM could be worth equal to or 1.5 x POLB at IPO. POLB has already made a mockery of the sum-of-parts valuation, which I am sure DIM will repeat. However, CF was not committing to a value because the market would decide nearer the time. CF also said none of the big tech mentioned had walked away but would not comment further.
I understand CF has overpromised on specific projects, like the spinout timing or transformational news - very disappointing, but we are not privy to the strings being pulled. We need to accept that ORPH is not in control of sign-off in many cases, and perhaps CF allows his excitement to rule business sense.
A falling SP is uncomfortable, a rising SP offer comfort, the former can encourage emotional outbursts that can become self-fulfilling.
I'm not talking about the spinoff's Ivy I know they take time.
I'm talking about the wearable bull s
The Chinese Chims bs
The slots 3-10, 10 mil contracts bs
The let's aim for a billion market cap bs
The OO are taking the lead on getting Imutex to market bs
The analysts are saying 45 million for 21 revs but I think we'll do 50 mil bs
The cash dividend bs
There's more.. and I haven't even touched on the Poolbegs bull s
JB each to their own.
If you don’t want to hear anything the CEO of any Company says when you are heavily invested in then that is your affair but personally I want as much information as possible from whatever source positive and negative so that I can make a balanced judgement of whether my investment here is something I am comfortable with.
We all have to make our own judgements on the voracity of what is said and I do recognise that CF has been guilty of over enthusiasm with some of the timelines for spin offs etc.
However working in the industry I readily understand some of the pressures and challenges outside anyone’s direct control so I am prepared to give him more time to deliver as long as the fundamentals are improving which is pretty obvious from the results so far.
I am not seeking to influence anyone else as I consider we all make our own judgements however I always find it odd when certain posters repeatedly try and be very personally ultra negative/ positive on someone like CF or ORPH on the pretension of saving us from ourselves.
I can assure you I am very thoroughly researched here which given the level of my investment I see as a sensible course of action rather than switching off any opportunity to learn more about it’s progress.
In fact I would go as far to say it would be very unprofessional and a dereliction of my investment here if I sought to know as little as possible about ORPH.
Of course he cannot say anything material without releasing an RNS but if you lack the ability/ knowledge or experience to join the dots then please don’t pretend that others may possess the same outlook
Evening just checking in and Green a great post and underscores much of what is good here.
Will be good to get feedback from CF meeting next week and any news which is due on a number of fronts.
Still very confident here especially from these levels with the spin offs providing great reasons to maintain/ grow our holdings imo.
Once these are done the core business will be in a great position to be taken out by another CRO or merged with a US CRO for a dual Nasdaq listing.
ATB
I feel that nothing will happen with DIM until after the COVID challenge studies are complete. I would think that the COVID data will make DIM much more valuable. So rather rather than spinning out DIM with the promise of jam tomorrow(COVID data) spin it out with the jam.
hi earache, in fairness to CF, he never subscribed to the goldmans $1bn valuation. While he has always referred to it as the "golden lottery ticket" he was using a ball park figure of $300 to $500k.
Only my opinion but what happened with biondvax probably did us no favours on the potential sale of a phase 3 ready fluV product.
As to how it will eventually get to market, I guess it is a case of wait and see. If my memory serves me correctly, at the last Orph presentation CF alluded to some kind of update within a couple of weeks.
Maybe the guys at the event on 3rd November can ask the question.
Green - great summary as always.
so according to EA logic if you try and sell something at an inflated price and you have no buyers it is clearly worthless!!!
I thought you just reduce the price. There's a big gap between 0 and $1bn
If anyone is talking out of their derrière It’s Jim Beann. What’s the obsession with trashing CF? We’ve all been disappointed at some point with progress on what CF has said and occasionally passed comment on those matters, but you seem to have some ongoing personal crusade against CF. I do hope you say something that will come back to bite you on the derrière you self righteous ****.
Biggest disappointment for me is the Imutex situation. In mid 2020 this is what was being discussed as its value.
https://twitter.com/AiMMoves/status/1277229552880713728?s=20
And if Apple,Fitbit or Google were truly sniffing around DIM'S Data we'd have the likes of Goldman or Morgan Stanley sniffing at OO and taking positions.
Caposaka..If the management decided to open DIM for business late last year when CF 'ALLEGED' that Apple,Google,Fitbit were sniffing then it could have real value now.
The accounting excuse Friel used is bogus.I know if any of the 3 came a knocking on my door I'd bite their hand off.
So we can only assume Friel was talking out of his derriere,as per usual.
It the in house broker says its only worth 3p then they are probably on the button or over estimating it value.
It’s very easy to get bogged down in the mechanics and ignore the assets.
WG - quite true. It may not be necessarily the same. Still, mantra has been to repeat the POLB model. Let's see.
Russky - DIM is simply a punt at present - no contracts, no revenues, no valuation (tho some numbers are being banded around), simply not enough info to make an investment other than on speculative terms. It is priced as it is. You may br right that it's not priced properly yet. Question is, it worth qualifying for shares or waiting until the dust has settled, buying after and not being tied in for (possibly) 9 months. Months after POLB floated, SP is 10.5p vs 10p start. Not much of a return and what effect did it have on ORPH's SP after? I'm not rushing to sell or buy, just contemplating the issue as I don't know best course.
And u really believe DIM is already priced in ......... properly
I think any adjustment in share price is down to the price at the time - at 47p you can expect a reduction as people step back, at 20p very much doubt that will be the case (also expect price to rise leading into the spin out, from a 20p base).
If we run with the assumption that DiM will get away at £75mn (£50mn plus £25mn raised), that £50mn is 7p a share…
If Prep is worth £20mn - pretty much what they paid for it, you’ve got 2p ish there.
Imutex as mentioned before is difficult to value. Biondvax got to $600mn going through phase 3, with $20mn in cash, so mainly down to the asset.
If we ignore heady US valuations etc… and just assumed £100mn, that would be £49mn for Orph, so another 7p.
On assumptions discussed by others, that leaves the Core business at 4p…not going to happen…
Over the last four years, standard CROs have been valued at an average x3.4 of revenue (UK not US) - picked up from various credible reports e.g. Deloittes
While Mo Khan or Cathal can state it’s not a standard CRO (and justifiably), a 6-8x valuation is too bullish for me at the moment. Even taking the standard 3.4, a £40mn revenue this FY and let’s assume a modest £60mn next, puts the Core business in the £130mn-£200mn bracket, with it currently trading at the lower end of that range.
If we add the lower end 20p+2p+7p+7p, we are at 36p.
If we take the next year view of £60mn t/o, Core business would be 30p, add the others and we get to 46p which is in the range of broker forecasts.
Imutex sells for more / they beat guidance next FY / someone sees greater value than industry standard, upside on this…and naturally impact downwards if any of these aren’t delivered.
IMHO