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Not going to disagree with sentiments re CF. However, we would not be at this level is it was not for the ex Hvivo Dir selling millions. Also looking at the trades, I get the feeling there is some low level shorting in play. Very easy with low volumes to keep a lid on things
Investor fatigue has definitely kicked in here and that has manifested in questioning CF. I totally get that. But everything yoh look for in a good investment is here.
But we can surely see the SP defies logic, and is sentiment driven. So long as core OO continues to generate the money that it does, everything is fine. I can only see that going one way TBH. The current context tells you everything you need to know on that front.
Without a doubt, things need to start moving with the spin outs. The current rate is too slow and factor in a lock in period too, the current delays make this an extremely frustrating hold for most PIs, and probably explains why new entrants to the market have failed to outweigh the sellers. It’s a contrarian view but one I’ve long held, the baggage waiting to be spun out is hurting Orph because there’s no timeline for it to be gone. Time is money after all and so long as it sits there, the lean mean CRO we all envisage is still a way off. That’s where the effort needs to be. Poolbeg then radio silence has really not been received well by the market.
I don’t buy the theory the spin outs will devalue orph, I think quite the opposite for the reasons outlined above. But one thing is for sure it needs to happen sooner rather than later.
Anyone calling for CF’s head needs to write to investor relations, voice their concerns through the proper channels, and wait for a response. Moaning on here is futile.
Either way my strategy is the same, nothing sold til all 4 in specie divis sit in my account, and even then we see where we are.
I think that Cathal has learnt a great deal of lessons, highlighted by the fact he was doing 1+ presentation a week for a significant period of time but all it has done is land him in trouble with the PI.
My only real problem is that he is very happy to hype up something good but silent when it doesn't come to fruition or gets delayed and it allows people to begin to think he is just lying. People need to trust him and that involves also speaking out when things don't go perfectly and allow us to understand why. "I was expecting covid characterisation to finish this week, hence my comments about transformational news, but the government has requested an extension. The work will still finish but will be delayed slightly" would be a lot better than "transformational news in the week ahead" followed by "......." Is disheartening. We just need greater transparency to reinvigorate trust in the main man.
I totally appreciate it is a thin line to tread in that he also knows that private investors are often fickle and very often stupid and he doesn't want comments to crash the share price but it's a line I think he could read a lot better than he has done, and to his credit I think he is already doing that.
I will defend his nasdaq comments though as a merger or buyout are alternative ways to be listed there and it makes total sense
Unfortunately Mozi I agree with you. You can feel the disillusionment with CF just by reading some of the posts on here. It’s a shame because CF has many good points but his credibility has been hit by massively missed deadlines and the blarney.
Leo Toole’s recent interview was more reassuring and measured. I will hold for the time being but December is a going to be a very important month.
it’s AIM investment, not an exact science. Fact remains Orph has a highly relevant and unique Immunology platform at a time when every single news bulletin in the world is full of discussion of variants and vaccines. In a sector worth hundreds of billions, you have to work out for yourself whether or not that IP and expertise is worth something more than the current MCAP. The rest remains noise.
I keep reading that the 'fundamentals haven't changed'. Well sorry but one major fundamental has changed. CF has now been wrong so many times that people are doubting anything that he has to say. Obviously not everyone is having these doubts but those numbers are growing. Having faith in the management is pretty fundemental to any company/investor relationship if you ask me.
There have been too many promises over the last 12 to 18 months that were just unrealistic. How many "pleasant surprises" have we been promised and how many "blow the doors off" comments have led to nothing but disappointment? 3 spin offs AND a cash dividend by Christmas anyone?
Now we have "a better share price by the new year" and a NASDAQ listing in the offing too. Well... the share price has done nothing but tank since he said those words and any fool can look at the NASDAQ listing rules and see that Orph doesn't come near to their requirements.
CF is the fundamental that has changed for Orph. Take away his 'blarney' and what you're left with is company that, despite a pandemic and all the billions swirling around in the pharma sector, appears to be struggling to attract institutional investors and seems to be going nowhere quite fast after rising in value based solely on the overblown promises and predictions of the man himself.
If you still have faith in what CF says then good for you and I hope it pays off for you in the long term but there are obviously more and more people around that have lost (or are rapidly losing) that faith. Myself? I'm giving him one last throw of the dice. If the share price isn't at least 25p by the new year then I'll consider that my cue to sell.
CF is sitting in the middle of a pharma 'gold rush' with a shop left full of picks and shovels.
I think us LTH holders are getting frustrated because we know this share should be higher and we have had no bad news to bring it down apart from timing delays , fundamentals remain the same , looking at the trades I can see today back to 11am we had more buys than sells if we can believe what is put there and the sp drops that will alter because if demand is greater they have to raise the price its how this share job works isn't it?