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Say what you like about the Chinese, but they move fast when it comes to business, infrastructure and finance.
That is a big difference to how things re done in the west.
By the time the Americans or Europeans are mid way through meetings, dithering and not being decisive- the Chinese have sorted everything and bulldozer and rock trucks have been working on site.
So, if the Chinese have lined up the finance and are just waiting for JDA Nd The Sheikh's equity to be sorted. I fully expect them to be there reading the button for the Swift transfer!
It's happening and happening fast!
Have a read about China's green pledge .
Bought at 1.57 lol.
Good, Foook off Starduck.
Starbuck - all very sensible points with the exception of one thing. Funding should not be an issue given Chinese involvement. China is going hell for leather in doing joint projects in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, East Africa. Investing in foreign infrastructure is a key plank of their foreign strategy to build strategic strongholds.
If you ask me. I don't mind or care if there are fluctuations of 50-100% either way I will add on dips and slice on peaks and for peak is yet to arrive. Do I care about what people say here ? NO . Its my money and my decision. So for me drop is good and rise is very good.
On that note I'll say my goodbyes .
It s no reason people loss money .
I'll return at a point where I say I told you so.
Good luck and remember the name STARBUCK
Casper - we know the score here - dopey dreamers who want to buy back in aside .... Roll on Sunday and Monday .... next Week really looking forward to it ....
I sold yes at 1.65 p . As for me that was a point where the risk became more than the rewards.
I am pleased that this has risen from the ashes to a much more comfortable position. One that gives it a chance atleast.
However do I want to re enter at all before any funding details are given . That is what I am discussing. That is all. Until I see that if it goes higher I will definitely not be taking a position. So I wish you well. Not here to de ramp I am here to talk sense and put some taught into the share.
Like I said you have sold and want back in cheaper - one of the biggest pump and dumpers on lse - gl
No I want to discuss the share .
I really don't have an interest in getting any cheaper shares. I think there is ample time to acquire cheaper shares . Particularly after you and others have sold . There will be plenty of hot money here. So do I see a pump and sell off . Yes I do .
Funding will come much later if at all. As the passage of time as proven time and time again.
Yes there was a good story over the last few weeks. However it's got to a point where it needs more to push this to a higher market capitalisation. A point where other investors will be asking the same questions as me .
If I was to take a position here it wouldn't be now . It would be much later . Depending on the risk Vs rewards. I see value at 22m if the funding rns cane with the jda. Depending on current spot price , financials and opex and capex differentials. However it's not a great deal of upside. Fifty percent already priced in imo.
So time for rockets and booms have past.
Let's see how much hot money exits and see if they can actually deliver anything of fundamental important that they have struggled with in the past...
Starbuck911...
there is alot i can say....after reading your posts from your hostory.....but i am not going to...
GOOD LUCK!!!!....
as i say for me i have taken my position after assessing risks ve rewards in here...
we shall see who has the FINAL laugh....:))
Starbucks posts on friday were very positive - now have a derampy tone - obviously sold friday pm and now wants a cheaper re entry - lol
Well a fair post and a fair reply , I thank you for.
These BB s are for discussion. There are rewards and there are risks .
Firstly cash position is very low . So that needs to be addressed. Warrants to be issued with share holders approval at the EGM. The resulting situation will see Mr maktoom with 23 percent share holding in ORCP. This should bring working capital into the business. However it's dilution and any dilution is not good in regards to share holder value . This is necessary in this case .
The funding dilemma is interesting. I've seen other projects as well as this that have tried over the years to acquire the funds required to take their projects forward. However there never seems to be much appetite from the private sector to do such things.
It's interesting Mr Maktoom has taken a position. However as seen at recent ADME that it didn't end well.
So there is risk particularly on the funding side. With project funding and also timescales to any revenue. Which look to be a minimum of 5 years away. With capital requirements during any interim period.
So those shouting it's going to trot off to the moon might be a tad disappointed. So DYOR and only invest what you are prepared to lose was indeed an apt statement.
GL
Yes I do thought that was obvious lol
lol...when Jarv55.....says KHAN...she means...shahrukh khan...our ex-ceo...not the PRIME MINISTER of pakistan...IMRAN KHAN!!!!
Starbucks good question think Khan has been the problem massive drain taking salary from the company from what I have read. https://www.marketscreener.com/business-leaders/Naheed-Memon-0JJCDZ-E/biography/ this lady has invested 40k and seems passionate about Pakistan I think that is the change. https://www.facebook.com/WorldBankPakistan/videos/2043054192666265/?v=2043054192666265
Starbuck911...valid question and i have asked the same my self.....10 years have gone by...whats changed now... i am not going to take long.
1. CPEC hasnt been around for 10 years they have been their i think 4 years....our PROJECT is on the PRIORITY LIST.....why?..
2. i think POLITICS in pakistan havent been good....investors/foreigners stayed away...now with IMRAN KHAN on board CONFIDENCE has returned...lot of investment is coming in pakistans way....
3.Main reason why our ceo SK stepped down was because our project is in pakistan and he wasnt based there....as you know....for a project as big as this....one needs to be there ( in pakistan ) to see it through so it was decided in JAN 2019...that NAHEED MEMON takeover.......which i am glad she did.....SHE MEANS business...she gets things done.....biggest advantage we have with her is not only she is based in pakistan....but she is on board of SINDH government...she has connections...SHEIKH came about because of PAKISTAN relationship with DUBAI....governments of both countries have good working / friendly relationship ...i amsure she nust have crossed SHEIKH across one of these meetings..and mentioned ORCP....
Which one is more important in my virw????.....to be honest none....they all go hand in hand....they are all good as each other...with out imran khan this would not have been possible....with out cpec this would not have been possible.....withoit NAHEED i think we could have got there...but might have taken time.....
I am sure there are other good reasons why now....but i am too tired....need bot of sleep before night shift....:))
Its for the reasons you mention we are marked low on aim at the low....with our m/c being peanuts to where it should be....in comeing days/weeks/months that will change in my view....
is thete risk....yes.....but due to 3 reasons i gave you....that risk has minimised BIG TIME!!!!
Aim is about risk and reward....
I f one looks at the risks in here and compared them to the POTENTIAL REWARDS....i would say potential REWARD outweighs the risks by a mile....hence i am in....not for 10/20%...but for many MULTINAGGER!!!!!
My advice to newbies.....DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH please do not follow anyone...on these bb's including me....and always invest what you could afford to lose....:))
Great analysis Casper. I first bought in based on my analysis a time ago to do a quick trade. As the data and analysis unfolds, I have changed my strategy on ORCP to buy and hold. This will be a keeper in my retirement portfolio.
If all warrants are taken at 0.25p/0.50p.....there are 644M warrants out there....then we get...
£2.1M in CASH
Our m/c milestones will look like this....
2.4B shares in issue...
at 0.5p m/c £12m
at 0.75 m/c £18m
at 1p m/c £24m
at 1.25p m/c £30m
at 1.5p m/c £36m
at 1.75p m/c £42m
at 2p m/c £48m
at 2.25p m/c £54m
at 2.5p m/c £60m
at 2.75p m/c £66m
at 3p m/c £72m
at 3.25p m/c £78m
at 3.50p m/c £84m
at 3.75p m/c £90m
at 4p m/c £96m
at 4.25p m/c £102m
at 4.50p m/c £108m
at 4.75p m/c £114m
at 5p m/c £120m
I dont know about near term...but when the PROJECTS are up and running i can see our m/c being in the region of £500M+...bare bare minimum...this is when we are up and runnung on commercial basis....dont forget POWER PLANT 1 will be be up and unning by 2023...
You seem quite knowledge Casper .
I've looked back through the history of ORCP and there seem s to be a common dominator . That being around about one a year announcement of power plant development. All the rns s seem to have the same Chinese tie up plus development of said power plant.
All have come to nothingness. It's this that leads me to the direct correlation between JDA announcement and funding short comings.
In your oppion why is this any different from previous endeavour, which has returned zero share holder value addition in the last 10 years .
Power China seem to sign these JDA s but never have the intention of funding any of the projects themselves.
1.6billion I am sure you will agree is no drop in the ocean .
Looking at the opex and capex on the project. This is probably worth in the region of 10m per annum to orcp at said 12 percent. However each party will have to stump up 12 percent of the 1.6billion. So this leaves me to believe that any revenue generation for such big out lay is forlorn without heavy investment subsidy ...
Thanks for all your posts Casper.
Suspense and markets closed is killing me.normally I’m not. Bothered but this share is very exciting!!!
continues
I rather worry about raising something like $180M than $1.6B.. any day of the week..We have done a BRILLIANT job in getting these partners in FIRST PLACE ...people underestimate the likes of POWER CHINA....they are likes of EXXON on these sides
Now the question still exists...where will we get the remainder
1. parts of it will be historical costs
2. parts of it will be from oversea banks on interest rate basis
3. parts of it will be from within banks from pakistan ( no interest, as far as i know, its not allowed )
4. we could if we wanted to give more stake away
5. placing ( i believe this will be kept to minimum ) Memon will not want to dilute her own holdings..to some her £40K might be small..but for her as she is based in pakistan its like same as say £200k-£300k..it will be in her own interest to keep dilution to minimum..and it could be done in stages if needed..dont have to do it all in one go OR AT ALL.
6.WARRANTS..for me this is a given ..all of the warrants at 0.25/0.50p will be taken out which will give us £2.1m
7.SHEIKH might give us CHARITY as we gave him, when we let him IN at 0.25p for £1m ( including warrants )..so our stake of 12% ...he can give us back FREE..he gets something like 12% of orcp at next to nothing ( $500k )..so why cant he return the favour....and give us our 12% share in SHEIKH PROJECT for next to nothing
8.Another party coming in and paying our share or part of it..we can end up getting FREE CARRY
9. Why dont we just not go ahead..and let some one TAKE us OUT..TAKEOVER
There are plenty of options out there..most DIFFICULT one..we have already crossed that being sorting out 75%-80% of the funds already via big boys
Now the biggest hurdle left is the remainder..i have no doubt..we are in process of completing the package re-POWER PLANT any day now...we will know..where our funds will come from by year end..another way of looking at it is like this..ITS been confirmed that funding package will be announced by year end..how many days have we left only something like two weeks..at the agm....all the resolutions which they have set out..i dont think include any further scope for more dilution apart from whats already been announced placing shares / warrants
Dont forget..we raised in august i think and again few weeks back..we most probably have some thing like £800k+ after current placing and warrants ( £2.1m ) which equates to £3m..add to that historical costs..i think this is more than enough to put down as security for bank loans ( deposit )
KEY whatever needs to be done will be done before yearend ahead of that MAJOR rns
i see no placing as no authority and no time..i see WARRANTS kicking in straight after agm
WIN WIN!!!!
The likes of the SHEIKHS will not sell their warrants/shares for pennies they will want POUNDS and DIVIDENDS at some stage..FREE FLOAT will remain around the same.
Above my opinion only..could be wrong..ADYOR
POWER PLANT funding RNS is the one one everyone is waiting for....
MONDAYS possible SHIEKH PROJECT rrns...re-JDA in 2nd project is a BONUS......a MASSIVE bonus...this PROJECT will be run side by side with .......POWER PLANT/MINE PROJECT on one side and SHIEKH PROJECT on the other.....ONE BLOCK 2 income streams...:))....out of all the blocks in thar area we are the only ones to be given this PRIVILEGE ( 2 projects )..... this in essence means we could be BIGGER than ENGRO ...BLOCK 2...who have had ahead start on their POWER PLANT PROJECT.
SHIEKH PROJECT came out of no-where and surprised us all....all of us was EXPECTING.....POWER PLANT funding package rns to be announced then BAAANNNGGG!!!...out of no-where SHIEKH PROJECT pops up......MARKET got caught napping and to some extent still is napping ( low m/c cap ).....mini booom share goes up by 200% was the result. Again this on unexpected rns MAJOR but not the EXPLOSIVE rns we was waiting for ( which should be here by year end )...
Now maybe someone can COMPARE the two....and see WHICH has more VALUE..... SHEIKH PROJECT or POWER PLANT PROJECT....both over coming DECADES...will give us $BILLLIONS in revenue.....1.4BILLIONTONNES of coal can not be sniffed at....it will be used for four purposes.....1... ELECTRIC ...2...DIESEL 3....GAS 4..... FERTILIZER .
We have a MASSIVE asset BLOCK 2 with HUGE POTENTIAL...the thing is we are too small to develop these GIGANTIC projects by ourselves...hence MULTI BILLION $ companies have come in take part and REAP the rewards alongside us....POWER CHINA , CHINA COAL, and now in PERSON the SHEIKH, there is others aswell.
FUNDS??
WHY do you think we gave away high % in stake??? ans ... we had to...these projects are going to cost in access of $1.6B+..we simply couldnt do it by ourselves...we will have 12% stake in each PROJECT, most of burden on funding front will be on others not us....and they the $BILLION PARTIES will have to give us back our historical costs..so our share in the projects will be less than 12%.
I rather worry about raising something like $180M than $1.6B...we have done