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Thanks for words of wisdom. I am not a trader but rebalance where I can. I am overweight in Avacta because I bought quite a lot over three years ago and have a large free carry. Not quite the same with SNG but I had some at the bottom so well up. In both cases I am a long term holder (if 3+years counts as LTH) and happy to see out both in next couple of years. ONC is third in my bio holdings and again I will hold for medium term. Have numerous others (too many) but my other favourite in sector is Destiny where I hope to get to 80k shortly. Rocky SP in 2021 but I have great hopes for P3s in 2022.
On mining I already have some CCZ and quite a few others including RBW, MKA, ARC, EEE, GLR and BMV. Spread is to replicate a portfolio without being too overweight in any one miner as very volatile. Also have HE1 where you post regularly, from 8p days. Again I don't want too much in one share but have quite a lot in the basket.
Interesting times on AIM in 2021 after a mega 2020 and although SP movements on small volumes are frustrating and hard to understand, it is very difficult to see which are the likely winners. My approach is to try and buy in at a low price so there is plenty of choice right now!
With u here and watching.
And with SNG!
My friend says (he knows stuff… I know nothing) that ONC will be £10 in two years!
That’s why I am watching ….
I’ve averaged down a bit at 161.92. Takes my ISA in to profit (just about) at 180, SIPP 4.7% underwater. Happy to be patient, looks like it’s just a matter of time. @Trek, not wanting to detract from ONC, have you looked at ETX at all? Griffiths bought £6m worth in the placing at 24p in June. Recently hit 19p odd, back up a bit now. I averaged down there too.
How about keeping your % as is. AVCT fair value needs a contract imo. SNG, over valued or undervalued take your pick! But the phase three readout = mega pounds or pennies!
ONC is a genuine growth story. The SP pull back is not representative of its value but that’s how it goes.
I have balanced my risk biotech investments as I posted previously below. You gotta decide.
If you really wanna spanner in the works check out CCZ or CHF ( I have decent positions) copper plays! Electrification bla bla! Lol!
It’s all a game!
AgentB also mentioned a similar paradox investing wise regarding AVCT.
I honestly can’t advise. All I can say is in the case of AVCT if they land a substantial LFT contract(s) it will be possible to value the company more appropriately. They have just listed AV6000 on the clinical trial site but it (obviously) has a 2023 end date.
I held AVCT from 30p sold at 200p bought a nearly new decent car, got lambasted on the website for saying AVCT was then over valued and needed cash and then bought back at sub 100p after their raise! For clarity though I did also add on the CE RNS recently at like 280 as I thought at last! But sold as they dropped below support and have recently bought back at a 130 average but far fewer shares. Their mcap now is more representative but it could explode on the right news!
As for SNG, it’s been an unbelievable ride!
I really don’t want to bore this excellent BB but I will just say it’s been a rare share that keeps on giving. I took over 5 bags out and am now buying again. Risk money, like a do or die drill, for H2 and I will derisk as the SP hopefully ascends. Then in the same space there is DDDD I took out 4 bags and no longer hold! I have others and my fair share of losers!
Anyways, I hope that shows you what sort of investor I am. I have nothing to hide. Peeps may say I am a trader. Well we all trade, it’s just the time between buying and selling that seems to differentiate a trader from an investor. What is that exact cut off? Lol! and of course frequency. Sorry I get bored by so many Warren Buffet quotes. He wouldn’t even invest here! Lol!
So ONC. Well, you will unlikely see fireworks here because the market does not understand it. We do not have a divi metric or even anything like approaching that. The normal ROCE, ROI, NPV or for that matter even EBITDA metrics can become obsolete in a blink because the growth is so rapid.
So the question is how do we value a company that the market cannot.
One can be harsh on oneself by saying I got it wrong because I bought some shares at 220 and 200p, You see after the 180 placing and subsequent climb I thought the pull back to 200 was it!
Anyways I bought so many more on the dip like IPhone that my average is also now up significantly to 181. So I don’t have the answers but what I do have from my investing experience and conviction is that IMVHO ONC is one of the most promising low risk, high growth, British biotechs out there with one of the best management teams you will find.
Growing. Doing deals. USP. Worldwide presence. Cash favourable. Experienced and capable BoD. Niche market, moat. Contracts with majors. Govt grants. Evidence based databank. Recurring revenues. In no particular order I could go on!
That gives me reason to invest at below my £4 conservative valuation in less than 2 years.
A new Paul Hill interview is set for couple of weeks time so we should get bit more info there.
I was away for a few days and you write an investment case for PIs!! Obviously ONC is heading steadily in one direction even if the SP doesn't always follow suit. I did buy a few k more but don't have spare cash without selling others and I don't wan to do that at present. I have bigger holdings in Avacta and SNG which if they regain some lost ground, I will rebalance here. Without some more II involvement the SP may continue to be volatile but this remains a medium to long term hold for me.
I still wonder about a bid from Roche or other major but may be wishful thinking. With more news by 31 August we should get comfortably over £2 again but will it be sustained?
That's a great non technical explanation for us mere mortals!
It took me quite while to try and understand today's RNS, but your explanation has made it crystal clear :-)
I think that's where the issue lies in attracting general PI investment; they read the RNS, but don't have a clue what's being said, or the implications, so just move on. But major pharma understands, hopefully II's will and come onboard.
Glad I rounded my holding up on Tuesday :-)
I must say i was not very happy to see us down to 155 having reached 250 not long ago. I have been adding to my ONC. The dma traders were clearly manipulating the share price to drop but they're no where to be seen now. I sold one of my shares and added a little again today.
More IIs will soon start to pile in and if those dma traders stay away, we should clime back up. Like trek said before, director options are at £2 and share price is at recent placing. Some PR should attract more PIs and IIs. Clearly a company going places.
“(Alliance News) - Immunodiagnostics group Oncimmune Holdings PLC on Friday said it has signed an autoantibody profiling contract with Dana-Farber Cancer Institute.
Shares in Nottingham, England-based Oncimmune were up 5.6% to 179.50 pence each in London on Friday afternoon.
Dana-Farber is a clinical affiliate and research institute of Harvard Medical School and a cancer research organisation.
Under the agreement, Oncimmune will be utilising its proprietary biomarker discovery engine, SeroTag, to identify autoantibodies that can be predictive of patient response or associated with resistance to checkpoint inhibitors and chemotherapy.
In addition, SeroTag will be used for identifying autoantibodies that can be predictive of immune-related adverse events in response to treatment.
The project is scheduled to complete by the end of 2021.
"SeroTag is a high-throughput, multiplex, discovery technology based on Oncimmune's in-house protein library, one of the largest in the world, with a unique, ever-growing repository of disease data for indications such as autoimmune and infectious diseases as well as cancer," the company said.
By Amrit Sahota; email@example.com
Copyright 2021 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.......”
I still don’t think the market gets this but many Pharma companies do.
Say you are going to run a trial with 1000 pts to target a new drug. Aside the usual age/sex/ethnicity/comorbidities etc how do you profile the pts that will likely have the correct immune response so that you can target therapies and save time on clinical trials?
That’s where SeroTag comes in. You compare the blood test to the databank and identify any adverse immune response in advance. So you can then streamline clinical trials deselecting known adverse responses which is better for patients and Pharma’s.
You can then use the databank to fine tune other permutations of this.
That’s about as simple as I can explain it. Each contract and possibly each test is revenue into ONC and it nets out saving Pharma’s lots of time and money.
With the biggest databank in the world which is ever growing and adding in covid now that’s why we have so many big Pharma’s on board. It would cost a fortune to replicate. Just outsource to the experts.
1100 clinical trials being run by Dana Farber. That is a massive vote of confidence to be let in on their books! More will follow.
Nice to see everyone starting to chill again!!
Fantastic work as always Trek.
ONC continue to deliver and there's a lot more to come from them.
by the way, no DMA trades today. L2 showing the usual market makers.
Newbies can buy at recent placing price and having been 250 recently, i can confidently say its a great entry price. I'm also looking to sell anther share to add more at this level.
Zeus part 2
“Today’s news is evidence that new ImmunoINSIGHTS contracts are being won.
Oncimmune’s March 2021 £9m (gross) fundraise facilitated the expansion of the ImmunoINSIGHTS franchise, and is supporting an increase in analytical capacity, from c10,000 to c40,000 samples by Q1 FY2023. Laboratory and commercial operations are being expanded in Dortmund and the US respectively. On a broader basis, the company also reported that going forward ImmunoINSIGHTS sales would benefit from new contracts with Roche, its subsidiary Genentech, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and an undisclosed leading US-based global pharmaceutical company. Oncimmune expects that new ImmunoINSIGHTS contracts over FY2021 and Q1 FY2022 will likely constitute 50% of FY2022 revenue. Sales growth is evidenced by today’s news. With over 90% of ImmunoINSIGHTS revenue likely to be US-based, the company is considering building a duplicate US laboratory and hiring a US business development team to support its efforts in this geography. “
Zeus... part 1
“New ImmunoINSIGHTS contract with Dana-Farber further validates offering and supports expected sales growth.
This morning Oncimmune announced a new contract with the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (Harvard Medical School affiliate based in Boston, US) whereby the latter will utilise Oncimmune’s proprietary SeroTagTM ‘biomarker discover engine’ to identify predictive patient responses to novel checkpoint inhibitor (CPI) based cancer therapies. As in the case of yesterday’s announcement (see our note Cutting edge COVID-19 research validates ImmunoINSIGHTS as a valuable research tool) this new deal further validates the commercial value of Oncimmune’s ImmunoINSIGHTS offering, although in this case the news is also indicative of additional revenue from a new deal. The news further supports our expectations of continuing revenue and earnings growth for the company. Our valuation and current forecasts are currently under review pending an update by a new analyst.
Dana-Farber is a world-leading centre of excellence in cancer research
The institute is an acclaimed global leader in pioneering cancer research, from preclinical investigations through to clinical trials. Employing nearly 5,000 staff it is ranked the number 3 cancer hospital in the world, oversees in excess of 1,100 clinical trials and enjoys extensive support in terms of Federal funding.
Checkpoint inhibitors are at the cutting edge of cancer therapy.
Therapies to be investigated include Merck’s Keytruda (pembrolizumab), Pfizer’s Opdivo (nivolumab), Roche/Genentech’s Tecentriq (atezolizumab) and Astrazeneca’s Imfinzi (durvalumab), which together generated combined 2021 sales of $26.6bn. The future commercial success of CPI sales will benefit greatly from better understanding of patient responses, and we hope that this work with Dana-Farber will facilitate further immune-oncology contracts with CPI companies, including those listed above. We note that Oncimmune already has a contract with an undisclosed US-based global pharmaceutical company working in this area.
“ImmunoINSIGHTS win; COVID yesterday, cancer today.
Oncimmune has announced an autoantibody profiling contract with the prestigious DanaFarber Cancer Institute. The contract opens up ImmunoINSIGHTS autoantibody profiling service to a number of Dana-Farber led oncology studies. We estimate the contract win to have minimal initial financial value, but importantly it brings influence and provides a framework for future use amongst pharmaceutical sponsors. Consequently, we make no changes to our estimates (projected 66% CAGR FY’21-23 in ImmunoINSIGHTS revenues). Nevertheless, we believe that today’s news alongside yesterday’s pre-publication of findings in COVID-19, indicates that the importance of autoantibodies as a key biomarker class across multiple disease areas is growing. Oncimmune is well-positioned with its best-in-class profiling service to benefit from this growing recognition amongst the scientific community. Our last published intrinsic value was 273p, materially above the current share price, and our confidence continues to build in this growth strategy.“
Not sure about minimal financial value. There will be a profitable contract, also a foot in the door. Agree with spin offs
Wow! The RNS says it all! That is a huge deal. THE Dana-Faber Cancer Institute!
This will undoubtedly lead to others deals. When asked by peers in the profession which discovery engine they are using for autoantibody profiling? Peer reviews are published on 100’s of clinical trials and ONC will be there, in lights!
It’s the data that they go to and look at how the output is validated. What is the baseline. How was the response measured. ONC’s name and capabilities will be in the highest echelons of US cancer diagnostics!
I expect we will get some interviews next week if Adam has time. The guy is proving to be genius deal maker and great CEO. Pretty much the same esteem as I hold CF at ORPH.
Next I hope we have some progress on a US lab and also the cell surface screening tech. It may be that they now have that capacity as part of the increased testing capacity.
A lot has clearly happened since the last updates. This is another major US contract. There are now around 16 pending contracts across the world totalling about £11m. I think the Dana-Fabre one will prove much richer than some of the others.
We should get some news on NHS earlyCDT lung and Biodesix US sales soon and perhaps an update on the increase in the Dortmund lab capacity/capability.
Ignore the SP, well you know what I mean, DYOR and look ahead.
There will undoubtedly be another placing probably towards the end of ONC’s next year because the pace of growth and contract delivery is so huge. They can easily sustain ops costs from existing turnover but that is not what this company is about. Use of cash is accretive and revenues build off the back of it.
Each new deal adds to the moat and puts a barrier between us and a cheap takeover.
Add to that and most importantly our investment here is making a difference to people’s lives with next generation cancer diagnostics.
Well done Adam and team!
Enjoy the ride even if a little bumpy atm!
Indeed, a great end to the week. I think I’ll be redirecting some of my AVCT money here today. (Just wish I had done it sooner!)
Great news this morning, just the pick me up the share price needs!