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Lost so much here already, but it does now look very positive. Have topped up small.
Can't believe the drop, I understand the current revs but from the guidance earlier this year we should still see some good results year end (unless we under deliver there), and with a high margin too. SP doesn't deserve to be down circa 40% today, very unfair.
That being said, we are now considerably less than what we were in 2020. This company has so much promise and is used by so many pharma companies but investors aren't biting. With Alistair coming on board and his experience, I think we were all hoping for some momentum, but we've seen absolutely nothing here. Around the PR too Onc is non existent - minimal updates, zero comms, few events. Perhaps a change of mgmt is needed.
Not wanting to be negative but it's frustrasting. Anways, agree with all your points R00st3R and here's hoping!
The shares are also worth peanuts right now. Having followed here for 4 years+ I want to highlight that buying shares now means you get them for 1/4 the price of what they were 4 years ago. We have high interest rates, a suppressed Pharma market and certainly a lot of nervousity in the investment community. But one thing should not be underestimated. With the sale of assets the company has cash through a new loan facility. They repayd 65% or so of their debt obligations which is huge. Cash flow positive in near term and 80% profit margin. Business relationships (MSAs with 7+ of top 15 top pharmas) and several relationships with research institutions that will further expand the reach as publications are released and more awareness and marketing occurs. Sales teams in NA ramped up and a path to expand and diversify the incredible PI of IMM7NOinsights to cater for many more diseases.
Financially the business in the next report will be 10x better than they were 4 years ago with the foundations layer to grow at scale. If this all happens according to plan this SP can skyrocket from where it is . I will pick up my balls and put down some more here. Seems risky but man will that lower my average and hopefully pay off in the coming cycles. Long term hold - Strong strong by IMHO.
What do I know?!
"It remains my firm belief that this platform has the potential to offer significant value to our customers, and is primed to respond, at scale, in lockstep with the market as it inevitably rebounds. Post the sale of the Oncimmune Limited, our focus is the expansion of the ImmunoINSIGHTS services business with an intention to achieve a cash flow break even position in the near term." Adam H.
I can see great Business Development both on the Research and on the Pharma Services side. I also understand the strategy has been to focus singularly on the IMMUNOInsights business which allows all resource to flow there and to deliver value a d to expand and generate revenue at scale. Next financial report should reflect the proceeds from the asset sale and potentially wake more people up to the true opportunity here. As of right now though....the numbers are all a bit blurry. When cash flow positive, hopefully by 2024, I think this could take a real U turn.
I also firmly believe the company is at a turning point.
What can I say. 31% drop. I can only appeal to management to get this sorted and provide clear guidance, vision and set realistic expectations. I want to know what the 3 year pla/roadmap is after the sale. I also want to have a better revenue forecast. I understand that this business is young and needs some time and resource to find its feet. But maybe that's a sign that investing here was probably premature. In fact that seems highly likely. I am not sure what you are seeing @trek but I am agreeing more with Compounds view. Peanuts Sale of assets and unfortunately at the right time to cover debts but wrong time in the market for ONC. I also wonder whether the full year revenue will be equally disappointing as the interim result or whether we should just tag on to this impeccable management optimism and believe that business is picking up. Hard to say. I remain hopeful that the worst (surely) must be over....unless the rest of the business simply collapses.....
Trek
13 did seem low! But buyers clearly knew the deal was needed!
Trek
13 did seem low! But buyers clearly knew the deal was needed!
"Recognised revenue for the period was £1.12M" Peanuts... no wonder it is crashing. It's all well and good claiming 80% gross margin for Immunoinsights but if growth cannot be scaled then it's going to be difficult to get investor support.
In my opinion the selling of Oncimmune LTD for 13 million was a low ball offer. I just wonder how much R&D was spent and the amount of time (many years) to for the Early Detection of Cancer of the Lung Scotland (ECLS) study with 12,210 high-risk smokers. The ECLS study was the largest-ever randomized study for the detection of lung cancer using biomarkers. Share price reflecting disappointment and I hope they deliver before cash runs out. IMO, DYOR.
So the market looks back and not forward! Typical!
Usual caveats
Trek
Hi R00st3R,
I think todays interims answer your questions. All good at ONC. Well actually very good!
Should be a cracking day today!
Pity some of the revs got delayed but there is a line of sight and perhaps most importantly a change in sentiment.
Wish I could buy more at this price!
Usual caveats
Trek
So Trek, now the cards are on the table. AI would be great. Are you going to put down at this price (lower than 2019 SP when they made 170-180k revenue. I get the balance sheet got out of whack and they sold a number of assets to cover this but.....is it not the case that with a cash cow service and a close to all time low SP, this is a no brainer? Or do you think we will only know in 1 year. ..When we get the next clue
Partnering with an AI tech company to develop its immune related predictive responses from its vast database would be the next logical step now we have cash.
Usual caveats
Trek
Here a couple of lines from Paul Hill.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-hill-a5994116_onc-onc-immunoinsights-activity-7066322496001585153-NU5_?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
I am slightly disappointed and at the same time happy. Disappointed because I feel like the asset sale could have been avoided but it was not making money anyway. So hopefully as stated below, it allows for a sharper focus on the core service (IMMUNOInsights) and avoids inefficient overheads. Excited because I feel like we have a cash cow on our hands now. I am missing a forward view/ a vision. If IMMUNOInsights was sold off this year too I would be gutted. Waste of years and money. I had higher hopes for this one than a 1.5gbp tag.
I agree. Selling this business, clearly served a need and will bring strategic focus. In my view the rest is worth more than when they started out/IPOed...and shows the underlying strength. Really should jump back to 120+ once people wake up to this.
I just hope the rest is not sold too early! However, why would anchors investors allow that? So ground for lots of optimism!!
Looking at a cash machine now as immunodiagnostics reap 80% margins without the non core overheads. It’s a shame though as given time and funding this business had the potential to grow substantially. The rest will be sold soon imo as it’s a clean business.
Usual caveats
Trek
Thanks doc.
Well I wouldn't want anyone to get into trouble because I am asking questions ;)
I am also interested...but I think no-one knows apart from insiders who cannot divulge any info unless through RNS?!
I assume they are working hard behind closed doors to create further value for all. Looking fwd to next RNSs!!
Does anyone know any more about the potential asset divestments, funding structure, breach of IPF Partner covenant and possible waiver? An update would be welcome. Even just rough timeline for when updates could be expected. Also lets keep it positive ;) enough trouble in the world as is. We need more companies like Oncimmune and to give them a chance to grow. The seeds have been sown.
Seems to me like Oncimmune is confident they can weather this debt to equity shambles in the near future, given they are planning a mid-term replication of the Dortmund facility in the US. This would of course require additional and potentially significant investment.1. When will we learn more about the breach of covenant?2. Revenues for H1 FY23 already exceed the total revenue for 15 month period to Aug 22. What is the revenue guidance for FY23? Does anyone know?All I see is that pipeline should be around 16.5mio now.
There is no limit how high a stock can go. But when it crashes, it can't drop lower than 0.
First Covid, then war, then global banking collapse, then deep recession, then world war, then in 2028 a glimpse of hope?
Wake up Tro that’s last years!
Trek
I am spamming the board here but just wondered if anyone else noticed UBS and Barclays seem to have for the time being at least sold their share and we have a new set of shareholder incl. BNP, HSBC and Credit Suisse. Have those three always been in or is this more recent?