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Rooster, are you saying there more bad news to come?
If so, I agree, it's better to get it out if the way...
Not so fast Dr. P. - let's give them until 01 Aug. Seems like a good idea to throw out the trash news whilst the shares are in no man's land anyway.
Does anyone at this point have knowledge of what the expected IMMUNOInsights revenue for the full year is predicted to be?
Unaudited corrected results out. They are just a formality but someone sold on the 2pm RNS. Only a small sell 50k ish shares but knocked price down near 9% lol!
Then 15p gets snapped up by some imo savvy buyers!
Point is this could move rapidly back up if the next TU is positive. Freenome sales are in bag + regular pharma contracts and debt now significantly reduced. I don’t think it will take much, just some outlook positivity or director buys from new BoD could have a very positive impact!
Usual caveats
Trek
Rooster, thanks!
I think we can look forward now, a new start if you like!
Hopefully, we will see the number of samples going up steadily this year (straight to the bottom line)
This share has really been beaten down; kind of deserved but overdone. ,Underlying IP is unique + potential is huge! With the new team and more focus on sales, it should work out!!
Hey Dr.Patience,
here is an extract from the Annual results /trading update Nov 2021.
" The revenue reported is lower than the headline £5.6M indicated in the unaudited full-year trading update issued on 8 June, due largely to revenue recognition relating to an invoice for £1.7M to an historic EarlyCDT Lung distributor. The Group is unable to recognise this revenue in the year ended 31 May 2021 as the revenue recognition requirements of IFRS 15 have not been met at this time".
They left 1.7mio on the table. This is why many investors are/were up in arms. Significant blow to the revenue for that year.
Trek, I agree, this is great news. The financial comms have been on several occasions been a bit fluffy and sometimes misleading, so good with a change.
Ref: "The NED also had to go especially after the 1m bill outstanding", did I miss something?
Well said Trek, I echo this. The old guard has now been replaced by a commercially focused team of executives/ director. I feel relieved to see that a new BoD is coming together to take this new business model to where it needs to be. The AI story will surely unfold over the coming 6 months. Spring is back. Really excited about this news.
Proactive…
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1020462/oncimmune-appoints-new-ceo-and-finance-director-1020462.html
Trek
What amazing news and I like this….
“… Martin has over 25 years of experience in the life science sector, including senior commercial roles at a major CRO and most recently as Global Senior Vice President at Owkin Inc., an AI biotech company.”
Martin will undoubtably be steering us in the AI direction…! Something I think is pretty obvious!
Also as many here have opined a new CFO is critical and looks like Martin has had a say in who he gets.
The NED also had to go especially after the 1m bill outstanding! Most certainly put the ‘non’ in executive!
“……. we are excited to see the impact of a more focussed and commercially orientated leadership team on the business." Ouch!
I do feel sorry for Adam I think he was a great scientist but was let down by those around him. He spent more time defending them rather than being more demanding. He will undoubtedly learn from that though. It’s thanks to Adam that we have Alister and he is now making a difference!
For sure it will take a few more months yet but change will come at pace and ONC has the most amazing foundations in terms of clients, revenue opportunities and a unique data set that is in demand. It’s amazing they actually messed it up before!
I am glad we got this RNS before the next TU as now the market should be looking at the funds and opportunities with this new team!
It looks like those significant stakeholder’s have also had a say so it will be onwards from here with opportunities ahead for both traders and investors!
After adding recently I just need 19p now to be blue!
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, as much as I hope you are right, I think trading may only significantly improve during the second half of the year. Biotech/ pharma companies have been holding back with their investments, but it should pick up.
I would have expected a lot more director buys, but in reality I don't think they actually care too much about the current share price (still a wrong attitude in my view; a low SP is never good), as the end game is a sale of the whole company. This will be the large investors' game and selling for say £50million would be seen as a huge failure.
For the patient investor, it will pay off.
Meant to say we are due a trading update. Should be next week.
Hopefully results in a change in sentiment as it will also be one year since Alister joined us!
Usual caveats
Trek
From GS on email just now….
“ The global pharmaceutical sector has around $700 billion at its disposal to acquire other companies and invest in research and development, according to Goldman Sachs Research. That war chest will be important as patents expire for some of the industry's blockbuster drugs.
“The pharmaceutical industry will need growth, and at this time they are sitting on a tremendous amount of cash,” says Asad Haider, head of the healthcare business unit in Goldman Sachs Research. “The baseline expectation is that there is going to be continued M&A.”
In addition, he says there's progress in the development of new treatments, and there are signs that surgical procedure volumes are on the rise. Meanwhile, MedTech is expected to be the industry's best performing subsector in the second half of the year, according to a midyear investor survey conducted in conjunction with Goldman Sachs' 44th annual Global Healthcare Conference.”
Like I said ONC can bolt on to pretty much any R&D. I had LID & HZD as takeovers, same sector and weeks apart! ONC will make it 3 I think.
Usual caveats
Trek
Hi DrPatience,
Everything has its price. Those same shareholders agreed to EarlyCDT lung sale for 13m! I doubt that’s even getting our money back on what was one of the biggest phase 3 trials ever!
The antigen databank has a huge value especially now with AI technology. The base data that ONC hold is probably the best in the world. It needs someone to introduce a predictive element to it in tandem with quantitative & qualitative responses.
50m would be a snip for ONC and that may see some investors willing to sell.
You are right that there is no relationship between the mcap and company value here. London is useless, it’s based purely on buying v selling algorithms which are ‘easily’ manipulated. There is nothing in the price for a hold. SP’s move wildly on a small % of trades in relation to mcap. The market gets paid for trading not investors holding. But it can move both ways!
Hence it takes a bid to accelerate value and ONC is a company that can be bought, bolted on and used to drive a big pharma forward whilst paying for itself with its services.
It’ll most likely be snapped up and rapidly brought into the new AI world!
I intend to keep adding as well as I can free up funds and really should stay quiet as like you say just a few buys could send this to 30’s in a blink!
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek, I guess you meant to post the below here??
I agree with you all round, except wrt take over. The large shareholders (as you can see on the ONC website) are serious, patient investors and will not agree to a sale when they all paid almost 10 times the current price. I simply cannot see it happening.
Positive trading and a jump may only be seen 6-12 months from now, but given the IP they have this is now a bargain where any additional top line revenue pretty much goes to the bottom line. I'm drip adding whenever I can to lower my average. It may well be the bottom: if you try large buy orders, the price firms very quickly. Suggesting only really small holders willing to sell.
"Started buying a few. It looks like the bottom is in now. Has revenues, just sold assets to complete financial restructure. Could climb to 40p once market sees revenues for high margin immunodiagnostics business. 80% returns, 7 top 10 Pharma’s as clients for its huge databank, probably the biggest antigen databank in world! It looks for responses saving pharma loads of money and time on clinical trials.
If it doesn’t bounce imo it’ll be taken over as an easy bolt on for an R&D biotech.
Debt was a problem but sale of its lung cancer screening business has addressed the balance sheet but it hasn’t recovered yet as the market isn’t sure of the cash flow. So it’s a high risk play but that gives it a good chance of a hard bounce if the sales pipeline is there.
I don’t think it will take much to move it but punt money only!
Usual caveats
Trek"
I have started buying here. Only small numbers. Using my free ii trading allowance in my TXP ‘yolo’ account. That way I only add a few each month! Picked some more up earlier this week.
I see a climb to 40p on next news as easily achievable which is a good rise from this basement once the market sees the revenues.
Usual caveats
Trek
Hardly any volume these days. I have picked a few more over the past week, but I guess most people who wanted to run for the door have disappeared. Many hloyal olders will sit on huge paper losses including the main, anchor shareholders, who clearly are riding this out with the eye on the end game. So much for loyalty...but with patience this will come good.
I personally would prefer more updates from the company. I was wondering if anybody went to any company meetings (e.g. AGM) and/or have been in direct discussions with the management? It seems to be their communication - both quality and frequency - needs to be improved.
Probably using Grail and others. Baffled by who long it takes to get a foot in the door with NHS and getting things approved for use. This is not only the NHS though but the rest of the core target group for EarlyCDT. In that sense we should see much faster times to revenue and a more streamlined sales process for ImmunoInsights.
But the cancer screening market is growing and quite sizeable with plenty of room for revenue growth. Shame its sold but again for the best. Agree with Doc. P. around high value, high margin moving forward. Trying to get average down to so will top up as soon as I can free some funds myself.
Ingy, that must have been a shock no doubt, not least the current share price!
However, the more I think about it, the more I think this was for the best. Doing frontline testing requires a huge operation and will end up becoming a high volume, low margin business (perfectly OK but very different high funding reqs.). ImmunoInsights is a much more specialised, unique business with high margins. So hoping for the best. This can become an incredibly profitable business.
I have topped up again to get my average down...
The announcement today that thousands of people will be screened for lung cancer by NHs made me rush to check my shares here. Only to find it seems that they’ll use a different system than Onc’s
Ah well. How long to wait until I get my investment back, if ever?
The strategic messaging has lacked clarity and numbers have been fluffy. Share price has tumbled and clearly major investors have stepped in together with the board to force change. I think it is good news, but whether it's totally fair or not is a different discussion. As I have said before, they can do around 35k samples in the German lab, pretty much at no increased cost and with margins 75% plus.
This business has a unique, value adding IP and this is now ONLY about selling, selling and selling, The future is bright and this is a rock bottom valuation. It could go lower, but eventually it will bounce as the sample numbers go up + top line will pretty much go straight to the bottom line. I am just drip adding, with no idea where the bottom is, but I know whatever I do helps getting my average down and will be a good deal in due course.
what's your deal c_schmitt. your reactions resemble a spasm.....
it's obvious you are frustrated. if you can't see anything good about onc, then sell your shares or be smart and don't act like a pre-puberty teenager. i am not that old but you seem a bit immature.
i dread to know what you were like in 2007/08 or during the covid crunch time..... absolutely no resilience. i would assume that my steak here is way heavier and my losses way bigger than yours.
yea i want people to see the value of onc, don't you? if anyone is playing a dirty game it might be you.
the board is making decisions and they are replacing the ceo with immediate effect. this is a result of the recent performance mot likely. but if you think adam had no impact on the success of onc, establishing a service offering that is ready to make money and laying foundations to realise growth moving forward, you are wrong. i am excited for what is to come. let this flower grow man. stop ****ting all over it.
'Thank you, Adam for your service to ONC over the last 5 years.' LOL
'Speaking as an outsider' LOL
Thank you, Adam for your service to ONC over the last 5 years. Speaking as an outsider, I am cautious to make judgements but the macro-environment has been challenging and at times also provided tailwinds. Regardless, I could see the hard work and struggle to get ONC to where we are now, irrespective of SP. Not everything worked out, clearly. But it seems the company after the restructure and asset sale is now at a new Ground 0. A fresh start...let's just imagine it's all beginning now.
Glad to read Alistair's comments around new and focused growth strategy for FY24 - keen to learn what that may be in detail. Expanding US Commercial team further and promising realisatuon of shareholder value and enhancing dialogue/ in my interpretation being kore Shareholder focused. A more business minded approach is much needed here.
Back to basics. We have a company here with high calibre medical experts, proven business executives and high value commercial teams and not to forget the scientists delivering the work!
Let's try and be more financially responsible moving forward. Feel slightly better now although it was indicated that this financial year is tough. So I guess we are in for a shocker when the next results are out summing up the first year in the new fiscal cycle. If it dips further as a result I take any scraps I have left to put down here. I mean, it doesn't take much right now to lower my average significantly at these values.
Immunoinsights is supposed to be the 'Jewel in the crown'.
As Rathgar noted CDT Lung sold for £13M cash yet the current mcap is now around £12M.
I asked Adam moons ago if he thought the 'expensive' US sales guys wages could be justified and he said he had no concerns they would earn their money.
Something is not looking good.
I think Adam needs to setup an interview with Paul Hill (V O X) and give a more detailed view of how he sees things going with what is left of the Business.