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'Market is the boss...not anyone else'! Bottom line.
MT1- "Do you honestly beliveve that having Newmont Goldcorp, the world's largest gold miner, on board and funding Anza through to production is no big deal?"
Let me tell you, it took some well prepared 50 applications for CEO to approach various parties before clinch the deal with the NM as it is and imo for long term(after 4+ yrs it may work it wonders).
But, so far Market have clearly disregard it and the result is blatant and obvious for all to see. It was claimed as no-brainer since Oct 2018, 13p days by many and it has still remain a no-brainer by someone like you at 3p. No big deal.
NM bought 19.9% stake in CG in May 2017 at $4 and happily agreed to flog it at $5.3 to some Chinese firm. Not a great deal is it?
Many people have claimed- "If it is good for NM it is good for me", "NM must have done it DD before signing up", "Its a No-brainer"....Well, the truth is NM has flogged it despite of it all, that too a firm with proven resources and near production.
What it may mean for us.......is speculative. Would the dynamics change in our region, quite possibly, however we are still with the NM and when we look at the report from our Nomad SP Angels we appear to be far behind many of our peers which may mean- what's in store for us is...speculative.
ONE may hope having Newmont Goldcorp is big deal for any junior miners (and I'm sure many would give their arms and legs for it), however, look at the market reaction so far.........the low volume pretty much all year along.
Supply and demand...you must be kidding.
So far, poor PIs have absorbed the shock and our Ceo have exercised 500k options.
"What micro cap miner do you expect to out perform OMI next year?"
I don't know any, but I can tell imo it won't here. NM has to spend another $1m to earn in, which isn't exactly big amount in this industry unless they start drilling and find the resource of interest and go for it aggressively, which will take time for us to know...or would remain secret behind the closed doors for year 3-4.
Would it be 12p by Dec? I won't speculate it, as I've been proven wrong on many occasions here. We were 13p just on the news and we could have been lot higher even now...so that's your call and not mine.
All I know for sure, our Ceo is trying at regular intervals to convince NM to dig up, and NM for one reason or the other is not approving, may be its because of their tie up with Goldcorp, may be they have 100s to choose from, may be they're walking away from Columbia (as we've seen with the CG), only time will tell.
Just two of us attended the AGM this year(whilst we've the "largest gold miner on board with us" :) )
But, you're safe to have average of around 3p, odds may favour you. And, as I said- I don't see much happening till
year 3 and 4 as it stands and I'm glad we've 4 months of locked-in period till Apr7 otherwise we could plummet lot more from this low lowly levels on dilution supply..Wait and
Bhargav, more buys than sells? Ask yourself where the shares from these sells are going. Every trade has a buyer and a seller. The trades below the mid price, what PIs call sells, have done nothing to drop the price. The market is driven by supply and demand so there must be enough demand to keep this stable amid all these "sells"
Do you honestly beliveve that having Newmont Goldcorp, the world's largest gold miner, on board and funding Anza through to production is no big deal?
What micro cap miner do you expect to out perform OMI next year?
I know that with me being so positive on OMI, the Newmont deal, the Colombian economy and gold in general may make me look like a brainless rainbow chaser but believe me that couldn't be farther from the truth.
I reckon this is a no-brainer and will be at least 12p come next December. As you say time will tell.
MT1- Overall we see more sells than buys for many days now. Market has proved having NM on board is NO big deal or enough.
And it is truly "no brainer" since 13p days over a year ago. More like brainless...!!
2020 could offer some start, won't say as best performing micro cap miner (no way imo)...still LONG way to go... but 2021 may do little better than a year before and 2022 could be a conclusive one.
Time will tell.
Bhargav, definately more appetite to buy than sell OMI at these prices.
Not surprised. At these prices it really is a no brainer. I honestly reckon this could be the best performing micro cap miner in 2020. Just hope I can top up some more before it starts it's rise.
Today, I cannot purchase even £100 worth and can sell upto £4500 at market price. It seems people are sitting tight on their tickets. 3p is certainly in good control of by MMs here.
MT1- Overall I agree with you, NM is still on the board at this moment (until they decide to do something else which could be anything from picking up the drill, flog us off like they did in our neighbourhood or walk away for any reason).
3p is definitely better entry then 13p like last year, things have moved on a bit in positive perspective. OMI is now in better position to explore and prepare for more options whilst NM is still sitting idle on it. NM has 4 yrs to decide, 15 months is completed and only 2.75 yrs left (which is not a long time in this industry) and it is costing them $65k each month to keep the contract.
NM don't have any experience in Columbia, they like what they see so far and our contract offers a good entry point for them without risking much before they plunge in with 51% ownership, something they didn't had with the CG contract.
But in the midst of all, OMI has benefited to control what they can, reduce liability, focus on the project with the potential, quitting Uruguay on good note and reputation, they've submitted the grades since July and whilst NM is sitting
idle our Ceo is preparing the case for alternative options as he said he'll leave no stone unturned to deliver the plan.
And recent purchase of CG may change the dynamics in our region for better.
So, whether we have NM or not, we'll still have someone else to take us through and 3p in any case is a good
entry point for the ones who are prepare to stay put for year 3/4 as it stands for now.
For newbies, a multiple returns from this level is VERY likely and you've great average at 3.06. I've 7.75p I think
reduced from 11.25p.
I don't have liquid fund to purchase more, but I won't mind to do it at any level as and when I can, particularly once
we have any news on some sort of constructive action to take this forward. In the meantime, it would remain one hell of a waiting game.
It's all about entry points and the average price of your shares. I am lucky that I have an average of 3.06p so I am heavily leveraged to the potential massive rises here and deleveaged against the potential falls.
To me that is what is on offer to new investors at the current valuation. Massive upside with very little downside from here.
However no matter what your average price is IMHO this is going to many, many multiples of today's valuation and in the future you will look back and think I can't believe I thought about selling and thank God I didn't.
Yep, not prepared to sell for a loss. I'm just going to continue to hold.
I regret buying in at all too this locked in now, not selling for a massive lose and will have to avarage down when this drops lower.
Hope we see some movement soon. I regret buying in at a higher share price.
What you're talking about, we got mentioned in the 'Newmont Statutory Accounts', and a positive move is imminent which may catch many out on right news! :)
Slowly slowly spread is dropping, few sells and this will be under 3p no one is interested in this share anymore.
Hi 987, Ceo thinks we're already priced in at this level. I'm glad he managed to buy 4 months(till 7th April) lock-in period.
And in the meantime you may get (probably for the last time) opportunity to add more under 3p.
Nice posts bhargav. Agree completely with the comments about Newmont’s delays.
Looking forward to adding if there’s further weakness.
Yes...that's the pinch of salt we need to take it here (particularly control our expectations on daily basis), things won't move here with the speed we all thought it would do last year...year2 could set up some pace for year3/4...but not without tiring wait!
For long term, area seems to have some promise, CG's achievement (with so many years of effort) isn't exactly that attractive (for reward perspective)...and one way or the other, if not with Newmont I hope we would reach the milestone we hope to claim.
It is the way it is here!
"And I hope one day Vicjain's ongoing monotonous prophesy for months may turn true"....not really sure how to take that????. I bought in a long time ago with Newmont getting on board and now will stay the distance. It has been very frustrating buying into OMI and with hindsight i would have invested elsewhere. Never expected things to take as long as they have. That said i am invested and do believe things will come good in time so this is just a longer term hold for me now....if that is monotonous....then so be it.....
Good post bhargav.
Bottomline is, Newmont board is bit restricted after the merger with Goldcorp and Goldcorp's poor performance over the year. Newmont has no experience to work on their own in Columbia as yet. And given their international presence they would be cautious before any approval (6 people were killed on Buritica project- though things have improved since). Our Ceo have made several attempts for Newmont to pick up the drill and there isn't much he can do except wait and keep trying. The contract of Newmont with CG was bit different in which CG were proactive working on the grounds and calling the shots. With us, they have 4 yrs to decide if they want further ownership and JV the project. So far, the project isn't approved.
Year 1, progressed with bear minimum on ground, year 2 is likely to follow slow as it seems at this stage. Year 3/ 4 may bring some action we hope to see today.
It is great to have Newmont on board and we have good assets with some potential, however, Newmont bought 19.9% with CG at $4 and sold at $5.30 after nearly 3 yrs isn't effective result (for shareholders perspective), particularly when the Gold price has reason, NM was on board and they have proven asset in Buritica at near production vision by 2020.
Also, judging by other opportunities in recent articles within close proximity, we're not on top of the charts compare to a few of our peers. And for Newmont to happily agree with the CG and Chinese raises a few questions behind the closed doors.
As much as it sounds great we've Newmont and Chinese bought the neighbour.......I'm afraid it would remain a waiting
game for a few more months or more imo.
Would we see 2p?....I won't rule that out as we're in dull season now and our Ceo exercised 500k options(not the best signal in my books).
I hope things may change, particularly before the 4 months of locked in period for further dilution. And I hope one day Vicjain's ongoing monotonous prophesy for months may turn true.
Agree, Trying to buy in below 3p may be difficult. Makes no sense to sell any of the 10m shares whilst the sp is pretty much near it's lows. The sp is more likey to go up imo as things start coming together. The sp has been in the doldrums for way too long and things are coming together despite the slow pace. A positive move in the sp could come out of the blue, catching many out, and shoot up very quickly with the right news.
And according to our Ceo (at AGM) it is priced in at the the current level. Also, he said we've no news to release and now that we are in slow season (Xmas days-mid Jan) and things may not move for sometime as it is.
Good luck with your top up below 3p Webb's. You'll need to ready to pounce.
I've managed a couple of top ups below 3p but whilst they drop the bid readily dropping the ask ask below 3p is a much rarer occurance . I've got my funds freed up ready just incase I get the opportunity.
Regarding clearing the 10m shares. They are locked up for 4 months and beyond that I don't expect them to sold until the news flow, volume and and SP increase.
At this rate of buys it’s going to take ages for them to rid of 10 million of them.
I'm not looking forward to it. If too low, it would need to rise >100% for me to break even.
Looking forward for this dropping into the 2’s this week been waiting for ages now to top up.