Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
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If you got a bag on a plan for 12 quid you haven’t flown since 1992 .
"I'm sure O'Leary will be on to this."
That's too cheap for O'Leary!
United Airlines are charging $250 but with a cheap at home pre-flight for $80
Chug, the Yourgene test is a PCR two gene lab test, so that price includes a healthcare professional taking your sample, getting it to the lab and so on, commission for seller etc. It's expensive but very accurate and required for flights to some destinations I believe! Yourgene are running about 10k tests per month through their labs, but at around £42 each in terms of earnings to them. They're increasing capacity, and chasing some of the moonshot cash for the lab testing side of things, but not really a direct competitor with ODX.
I'm invested in Ygen and here, covering both bases!
Cant see that taking off (lol) for mass testing - the one thats being developed by Mologic - although ive seen no price but be surprised if its more than £10. But with huge numbers - this is a huge potential profit
Nope no connection.
But closer to home Mologic is a partner and theyve been trialing at Heathrow
https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-covid-19-testing-at-heathrow-airport/
Happened to see United Airlines are trialing this for some of their passengers.
Wondered if any connection with ODX
Its also worth seeing this that was written by one of our members (MerchantBanker) - capacity potential has increased since this was done and more is happening with antigen. But this will also show that there is more than Covid tests here
here's the maths:
So if everything goes to plan, all the tests come to market on time and capacity utilisation is 100%:
£3 average selling price x 2m tests per week x 52 weeks a year = £312m revenues
Add Food tolerance and CD4 = £350m revenues. Average margin of 55% = Gross profit of £192.5m
Lets say admin and selling costs double call it £12.5m = Net Profit £180m.
5 x Earnings would be £900 MCAP. £5.30 per share
Opposite end of the scale, assume the bare minimum happens from what is already promised:
Based On 200k RTC tests, 46k per day Elisa tests and 200k per day Mologic tests by end of Sep, £1.50 average selling price annualised earnings would be £106m revenues at 55% average margin £58.3m gross profit. Say admin and selling up 50% = £9m. Net profit = £49.3m.
At 5 x earnings valuation £246m. £1.44p per share
Low ball is nailed on by the end of Sep in my opinion, and i find it highly unlikely baring a miracle that capacity utilisation wont be nearer the top end rather than the 10% scenario above.
To get to the top end we need the Antigen Elisa tests up and running by Oct and the POC tests by Dec. I prefer to treat these as a bonus at the moment.
My expected scenario:
Assume we will use 80% capacity for Lateral flow antibody test and 50% capacity for Elisa antibody. = £141m revenues @ 55% margin = £77.55m gross profit = £68.55 net profit = £343m @ 5 x earnings. = £2 a share.
This is my minimum expectation by year end. With just antibody tests and no antigen tests. Just an announcement that the lateral flow antigen tests are good to go, then double my valuation in the above scenario.
What do we need for this to happen?
RTC test approval - highly likely given the process and people involved in design and the fact the whole consortium have already move forward with capacity expansion.
Lateral flow utilisation of 80%. Well RTC is 200k minimum. I'll be shocked if they do not want more. Mologic lateral flow tests will come on board shortly, with 75 countries available to distribute. Capacity should achieve 100% but im confident 80% is guaranteed.
50% Elisa tests - Mologic agreement of 46k per day is already 30%
Food tolerance - China self test approval - highly anticipated to come soon
CD4 WHO approval and continued orders - delayed from start of the year due to covid. Highly anticipated.
BTW 5 x earnings is conservative based on the unknown time of this virus and the fact i have ignored tax. A higher multiple is achievable it could be anything from 5 to 30.
Welcome - enjoy
Not alot - why?
I think most of us here are more interested in the potential products we are developing - Mologic saliva (no swab) lateral flow
And of course the UK-RTC Antigen lateral flow
Have been following closely.
Small holding at average 58.
Does anybody know anything about the 'Abbott ID NOW COVID-19 test, a nasal swab test that provides results in 15 minutes'