The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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MB, please correct me if I'm wrong:
"If I make tests weekly as follows: Sep 200k Oct 200k Nov 200k Dec 500k Jan-Mar 2m April 2m"
FinnCap note 30/11/20:
If the FinnCap note is to be believed, and there has been so far no RNS to update on any of the contents of it, than there's a capacity (in 000's) by :
end of Oct 200/wk,
end Nov 300k/wk,
end Dec 500/wk,
end Jan 600/wk,
end Feb 800/wk,
end Mar 1.7m/ wk (projected and expected)
end Apr 2m/wk (projected and expected)
"Our forecasts assume c.0.7m LFDs produced in H2, which includes c.250k tests from the
1m test order placed by the UK Government on the UK-RTC"
They got the 250k bit right. Of the estimated 450k balance they say "The balance will be used to produce VISITECT CD4, VISITECT COVID-19 and other antibody and antigen tests"
Say best case Antigen test @ £2.50 profit per test (CD4 @ £2.20 profit per test/ Mologic Antibody test @ £1.60 profit per test)
(250k x 80p) plus (450k x £2.50) is £1,325000 profit on tests expected by April 2021.
At the moment we've only made £1.5m profit at best, whenever we sell them. This makes Pi's unhappy.
By April, currently, revenue from tests will be c.£2m. Your numbers appear to be over egged by about £42 million if we only consider currently available for production Covid Tests.
However, we expect TT and CE mark very soon, so at best we'll have Feb and March production maxed out. By the time we're producing 2m tests per week (or the expected £20m profit per month in April) we'll have produced (4x800k + 4x1.7m) or 10m tests at £25m profit. Add £1.5m and Aprils £20m profit gives £46.5m
(OK £44m profit).
But wait, there's more....
What about all the other weekly capacity? 500k by December, 600k by January, 800k by February, projected 1.7m by March and the magical 2m by April? We've no reason to expect that this expansion won't happen. The FinnCap note also says...
"Omega confirmed that it has received a number of purchase orders from some of the six countries with whom the CHAI programme is currently working, with further countries expected to participate in the coming months. Omega has indicated that these orders will be supplied in H2 FY 2021. Coupled with WHO Prequalification, which was received in August, Omega remains confident that the CHAI initiative will seed the future demand that will be supported by longer-term donor programmes such as MSF and UN agencies (eg. UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF)"
These orders will be supplied in H2, but maybe produced in H1?
Or something like 16mil. tests able to be made by end March regardless of TT and CE mark for the Mologic Antigen test.
Try his link:
https://www.clintonhealthaccess.org/closing-the-gap-a-year-of-progress-amidst-the-global-pandemic/
for the Clinton Health Access initiative and click on the "same day CD4 testing" link if you want to be cheered up even more.
GLA and DYOR
https://twitter.com/MerchantBanke18/status/1354520054210162690
With the aim being 2m a week by April.
How many do we think have been produced over the weeks / Months up to this point?
Must be a fair few.