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*given the likely cost of the test most of the public will want to know if they and their family members have had it so it will sell!
Anitbody tests are vital for the epidemiology of the disease tracking its progress and presence, the market is global 6 billion people there is no way they will not sell every single one of these tests they produce (once approved).
This is not a cure .. maybe thates what hte market thought it was however there will be no cure or even confirmation of the disease natural expiration without antibody testing
Fair point. Even if antibodies are ineffective for the most part given the likely cost of the test if day most will want to if they had it so it will sell!
I like ODX and particularly CD4 and wish it well. Under 40p seems crazy too!
Best of luck all and here’s hoping others like SNG, AVCT launch successful tests and therapies. The world needs as much help as pos!
Retireby40
I didnt disagree with you pal, not at all
I wrote 2 conclusions, one is with vaccine
and the second its at the discretion of the gov and ill add on individual too in this post whether they value antibodies.
You cant say that they are useless if people want to take these tests or the government wants to do a census to check who doesnt and who does have antibodies.
So in my mind, if the vaccine works it compliments the antibody test or vice versa.
If it doesnt, its up in the air how they decide to use these tests.
I think you are worrying too much about finding reasons to use antibody tests. Even if we directed all our lateral flow capacity to anitbody tests for 2 years we can only make 104m. With a global population of 7.8bn it is only scratching the surface with repeat testing making the market significantly larger. It will not be a problem to find buyers for 104m tests whether its to test for the need for a vaccine, research, curiosity, immunity passports or any other reason.
Moderna trials are scheduled to finish in October 2022. I posted that last night.
Regarding the MHRA specifications.
'Antibody specification target audience. Desired: people who want to know if they have had the SARS Cov2 virus.'
Who is that then? It's pretty much everyone isn't it? If you've had a cold and a headache and maybe but not necessarily, a cough. If you can imagine getting one at some point. You are going to get some of those tests in aren't you?
Let’s agree to disagree, Saffy. Antibodies only give limited immunity so it’s finger in the air as to whether one with them can contract the virus and pass it on again.
Bit of C&P from the Government link posted earlier.
TPP COVID-19 Serology (antibody) self-test
Scope
Intended use
Desired: to determine if an individual is immune to SARS-CoV-2
Acceptable: to determine if an individual has previously been exposed to SARS-CoV-2
Evidence for each intended use must include that which supports the specificity of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 (acceptable feature) and if claim is of immunity (desired feature), that the antibodies detected are protective.
Target population
Desired: people who need to know that they are immune to SARS CoV-2
Acceptable: people who may have recovered from suspected or confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection or may have previously developed an asymptomatic infection
Target user
A layperson with no knowledge of self-testing technology
My take on this is that the Government are going to use antibody test's not to find out who is immune to the virus but more like a census in finding out who has had it. Different communities react in different way's. It's all about stats. More information we have the better chance we have of reducing risk. Antibody test's will go into production. The Government have to be seen to be doing all it can.
Retireby40
Great post, i had not thought of that.
So basically it looks like the Antibody tests work better with a vaccine than without a vaccine, and they may well need some tinkering along the way to measure the antibodies that the vaccine provides.
And if there is no vaccine then Antibody tests may be useful but its at the discretion of how the gov's value immunity passports.
The point is a vaccine looks likely to be ineffective as many with antibodies can still contract the virus which is why many think antibody tests ineffective.
Swooped,
Perhaps i didnt make it clear in my OP. The question to ask yourself is.
What value does an antibody test provide with no vaccine? You have to do the test within 3 months of an infection to pick up antibodies, and then what? go out, and do one again in a few months? at your personal cost.
With a vaccine the antibody tests are required more is my train of thought, because you would need to do one first pre vaccine, another one towards the end of the 7 months, other at risk groups more, another if at 7 months you still have antibodies. This is my eyes is guaranteed work, guaranteed tests because its part of the vaccine strategy. And maybe even another test post vaccine to show antibodies are there.
Swooped. Agree. Many will not take a vaccine even if offered.
Vaccine wont be accessible to the global population from day dot.
Antibody test before vaccination. Like the polio jab.
Good post Safy. I have a background in biological science and everything about Covid suggests it isn't going to go away. As is typical with these Virus' I fully expect a second wave in winter. For all of the reasons you state antibody testing will very important and lab based tests will never have the capacity for what will be required. Whatever the capacity of ODX there will be a massive market and can envisage a scenario where they would be selling 5 x the current target capacity easily next year.
Safy i'll add one other HUGE issue to the pot and certainly one that I will consider, would you take the vaccine?
How many people will be worried about taking a vaccine that has been rushed through development and testing, never forget the disastrous consequences of drugs that go wrong. We will never forget the notorious drug thalidomide and so many others that even in more modern times of testing have been shown to later have disastrous effects. Let alone one that has bee rushed through to support a pandemic!
If you think modern times are a guide to safer drugs you are mistaken (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_withdrawn_drugs) personally, before I take any vaccine, I would have a test first to see if I am at risk.
Simon,
I think you have missed the point of my article, and in keeping with the debate....
I actually think the antibody test is more valuable with a vaccine, please see my scenarios and answers.
I guess my thoughts on vaccines are:
1. Vaccines normally take 2 years to test and then get accepted - a Covid vaccine would be fast-tracked - I am not a tin foil hat person, but I would have misgivings about a drug given to me and my kids that maybe has been fast-tracked and thus, not tested fully with long terms effects not known
2. A vaccine like the tests would need to be manufactured - there are >7bn people in the world - even producing 1/4 of that will be a herculeam task (flu for example, companies make @250m per annum)
3. Vaccine will be expensive - if people may have natural antibodies, I figure it would make sense to check first with a test that costs maybe 10% of the vaccine
4. The vaccines will be in strong demand and likely, the countries that they are manufactured in will attempt to keep them in that country - UK has no suitable manufacturing in volume - one is being built as we speak but that is months off
Personally, I can't see vaccine being made and rolled out for sometime so testing will have to remain..........
I try not to invest in temporary phases, but it is clear to me following Covid some factors will remain permanent. I sense ODX will have a good future as testing will no doubt be in demand, not just for Covid, but am very disappointed in past management decisions, PR and posted losses. Every investor loves big and fast profits, but I doubt ODX will be as quick or as high as some hope. Good article though.
This is NOT an endorsement to buy into ODX. Please DYOR. These stocks are volatile and sentiment is the main driver behind +/- , they are high risk in my eyes.
I found this article today and i wanted to run it past you folks on here for your open and honest views, yes even the derampers are invited. Please keep it civil and respect each others views.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/no-guarantee-coronavirus-vaccine-will-last-lifetime-antibodies/
I've found myself wondering about my covid investments when/if a vaccine arrives. What it means for the SP etc etc.
So here are my thoughts. At this point im assuming you have read the article above, if not please read it first before you post.
If scientists and the vaccine developers are saying that they dont know how long the antibodies will last post vaccine, and yes the Oxford people also said that, and so did the Astra Zeneca CEO, they felt best case 7-12 months.
Im guessing 'at this point' its beyond any reasonable doubt that antibodies will not last forever as things stand. So what does this mean for us?
1) With vaccines in short supply when they roll out, if we have antibodies from a past infection, and as the article suggests, those who had got it bad will have more antibodies than what the vaccine could give them, why would they want to vaccinate you in those circumstances and how can they check? My answer Antibody test
2) If they provide us with a vaccine passport, how would we know when our antibodies are running out and we need a new booster? My answer Antibody test
3) At risk people who 'may' lose their antibodies quicker than most (maybe BAME or ill people) how would they know if they need of a booster? My answer Antibody test
4) If somebody goes to the doctor with Covid like symptoms, how can they rule out its not Covid?
My answer Covid test, remember its not going to be eradicated with a vaccine, or possibly a combination of both Covid and Antibody test. If you have antibodies, you cant have Covid.
5) With some countries now requesting a Covid test 3 days prior to travel to minimise the risk, could the same be the case for antibodies, if you have them you show a test result or vaccine passport.
6) Once the vaccine has rolled out, would that mean that once we approach the 7 month limit based on Oxford / Asz feedback that automatically we would need an antibody test? My answer is yes, maybe even 2 tests closer to the 7-12 month window. Especially if they dont want to vaccinate you when you have antibodies.
These are just some scenarios ive picked out, and i see it two ways. Pre vaccine and to a larger extent even a year or so post vaccine, testing for covid is there and will be needed for everyone. Once the vaccine is in full flow, antibody testing will remain with us. But not in the guise we see them now, i would expect we would see 2nd gen tests which show how many antibodies you have in your system.
Can we open a constructive dialogue please and someone share why we wouldnt need antibody tests going forwards? I am trying to learn and please lets not try to make this ab