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Snowking - yes i am talking about gross profit not revenue.
merchant bank , due you mean profit when you say revenue. the consortium test was expected to sell for £1.50 and 75p profit , until the rns said it woudl be slighly more . which i take to mean £1 profit on a sale of £1.75.
We need the icing on the cake mhra approval. Were running a business not a government puppet company .. stop holding us up to suit your lockdown narrative. Gla
Also although CKs voiceover talked about possiblity to extend to 2.5M per week, that idea wasn't strong enough for him to include in the chart, so I'm going with the charted 2M a week by April, and working on that capacity.
Guys, there are spectacular opportunities for ODX ahead, but lets not over-egg the already fantastic cake.
Slide 6 of the presentation says 4-6M CD4 tests per year, in 3-5 years time. In april, assuming ODX is close to full capacity, virtually none of that will be CD4, and it'll only creep up to 115K a week (i.e. 6M a year) in 5 years time, so even then it'll be a minor contributor.
I assume the majority the "mix" of ODX output will be RTC antibody and visitect antigen. But we have no idea how much we will get for the antigen test. Also, I assume there is an ongoing royalty to Mologic ?
The key thing for me is that ODX will have capacity builtup to 2M+ my April, that capacity will hopefully be being fully utilised and bringing in really good money. Meanwhile ODX can use those ongoing profits to work on other LFTs such that when Covid requirements reduce, they can use that capacity to sell those higher premimum LFT, making more profit with the same capacity.
In terms of food tolerance China was talked about as being 1M a year in 2023. so as per my previous posting I'd expert no more than say 250K in calendar 2020, at £8 profit (70% of $15), that's the 2M that I spoke about.
Huge potential here. in 6 months our share price will be x 3 or more likely x 5 of today’s share price in my opinion. Why?
• We are most likely going to have the first lateral flow antigen test in the UK
• We have multiple revenue opportunities with great margins
• £2 a test x 2.5m tests worth around £250m gross profit
• Nvct has shown that once potential revenue is factored in by the market the share price reacts accordingly. With what our ceo has had to say our revenue is going to leap exponentially and once the market takes this on board our share price will re-rate accordingly. Finncap states rivals in our sector trading at 9x earnings (& remember Finncaps new forecast should be out soon, which should create an additional re-rate in the share price)
• MHRA news due anytime
• 3rd party sales opportunities over and above UK Govt business
• 25% of all consortium contract business
All in all what’s not to like. It’s going to be a money making business from now on. Good luck, Brighty
I prefer to do my projections at a prudent level and then any upside is a bonus., I think yo can agree using £2 average the upside is substantial. If £2 happens to be more like £3 or £4 then amazing, but i'll use £2 until more concrete evidence.
I though we were getting a higher amount on the Visitect triple antibody, as the sale is general rather restricted to LMI countries?
Thanks MB
Okehurst - I assume the following:
UK RTC £1 per test (Slightly ahead of Finncap guidance) for UK Gov sales, + profit share for non gov sales.
Visitect Antibody - £1.60-£2.00.
Visitect antigen £2.50-£3.
CD4 £2.50-£3.00
Will likely have a favourable weighting to the Antigen tests.
‘2.5m tests is worth around £260m gross profit at £2 per test ‘
MB, thanks for your thoughts, much appreciated.
How do you see the break down of the £2 profit per test
Is that an average across all tests.
With only 75p profit per test for RTC will we be placing all our spare capacity towards Antigen- mologic or avacta
I know your not a ramper of the profit per test so your opinion matters.
2.5m tests is worth around £260m gross profit at £2 per test. Per Finncap report peers are trading at around 9x earnings. Call it £200m net profit and use a prudent 5x earnings you get £1bn. Covid will have a good few years traction in revs, and CK is already planning to use the capacity going forward. This is not just about Covid this is a industrial shift in the UK diagnostics industry.
Certainly don't disagree. If peeps do the maths, ODX has the the makings of a strong company and people maker. You have to just hold the right amount of shares and for the longer run. There are other infectious disease target areas such as TB etc. CK is playing a blinder here.
Grrrr. "does NOT"....wish this thing had an edit facility
The above does include profit from becoming an inhouse lab for the Elisa test.
The presentation gave us some decent clues allowing some rough estimations to be made for income and profit.
It has to be remembered that the LFT capacity going forward is being shared across a number of products
RTC antibody test
Visitext antibody test
Antigen test transferred from Mologic
CD4 test
Potentially acting as a sub-supplier for others (AVCTA ?)
So the potential profit from LFT is based on capacity plus the "mix", given that some have higher profit than others.
November 300K a month capacity is already in the bag. As capacity increases, some of it will go towards more profitable products. CD4 is £2 profit a test. We don't know what the profit will be on the LFT antigen test. Not sure if we heard a profit figure for the visitect antibody test, but can guess it's quite a bit more than the RTC test. Although there is an option at some stage to supply RTC test to non-uk (at higher profit), I get the feeling that they think all capacity in the near term for that test will be for UK.
So for the sake of argument, across all LFTs, I'd guess that in Nov profit £1 a test. So £300K profit. By Jan, that might be £1.50 per test. If the 2M a week is actually happening come April, you'd think that would be made up mostly of Antigen and RTC tests. So we might be back down to around £1.30 a test. But thats £2.6M profit a week by April. Eventually some of that capacity will transfer to CD4, which is £2 a test profit. If they can sustain 2M output a week, regardless of makeup, you are looking at £130-£150M profit on tests. Clearly that just sell price - cost of materials etc and there a LOT of other costs to taking into account, but even so.
I haven't even mentioned food intolerance. I think it was about £4M profit in 2020. If they can sell 250K tests in china in the next 12 months (they are talking about 1M by 2023), at £8 profit a test, thats another £2M profit. So say £6M over a year. Next to the potential from LFT, its not much, but they did indicate a lot of room to grow it.
Is any of the above badly wrong ?