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Not sure what you are suggesting, I thought everyone on the board is using an alias? If not are you using your first name or surname?
Chuggley - Thanks for digging this up. It does take into account increases in capacity at different utilisation models.
As things stand i think my expected scenario should be underpinned pretty quickly, and then the completion of the Antigen tests can add substantial value on top. My hope is we can get over 2m plus and exceed the top end. This is just valuation based on earnings, we should see a premium on top for UK RTC IMO.
Is Novacyt a £1billion company? Looking forward to £5!
Serial bigamist! My best ever spellchecker mess up!
Blimey KahunaJim, Bantutrader, SamPullcox and another unrepeatable alias, you got a lorra, lorra names. For our benefit or are you a serial botanist or something?
I think 'normal' market valuations can be thrown of the window. We are not in normal times.
I remember in the dot.com boom selling shares in a media company a bit like ICON for 10.5p. (ICON is currently about 0.015p) Valuations were crazy for anything with the word 'media' in the title.
This is the hottest sector in town. All we need is a couple of boxes ticked and it will be off to the races.
You say that but
I'll bring in Merchant Bankers figures again - and i dont think these take into acc increass to 500k per week or the possible 1 million - not sure these fully acc for Mologic antigen either? So here you go.....
here's the maths:
So if everything goes to plan, all the tests come to market on time and capacity utilisation is 100%:
£3 average selling price x 2m tests per week x 52 weeks a year = £312m revenues
Add Food tolerance and CD4 = £350m revenues. Average margin of 55% = Gross profit of £192.5m
Lets say admin and selling costs double call it £12.5m = Net Profit £180m.
5 x Earnings would be £900 MCAP. £5.30 per share
Opposite end of the scale, assume the bare minimum happens from what is already promised:
Based On 200k RTC tests, 46k per day Elisa tests and 200k per day Mologic tests by end of Sep, £1.50 average selling price annualised earnings would be £106m revenues at 55% average margin £58.3m gross profit. Say admin and selling up 50% = £9m. Net profit = £49.3m.
At 5 x earnings valuation £246m. £1.44p per share
Low ball is nailed on by the end of Sep in my opinion, and i find it highly unlikely baring a miracle that capacity utilisation wont be nearer the top end rather than the 10% scenario above.
To get to the top end we need the Antigen Elisa tests up and running by Oct and the POC tests by Dec. I prefer to treat these as a bonus at the moment.
My expected scenario:
Assume we will use 80% capacity for Lateral flow antibody test and 50% capacity for Elisa antibody. = £141m revenues @ 55% margin = £77.55m gross profit = £68.55 net profit = £343m @ 5 x earnings. = £2 a share.
This is my minimum expectation by year end. With just antibody tests and no antigen tests. Just an announcement that the lateral flow antigen tests are good to go, then double my valuation in the above scenario.
What do we need for this to happen?
RTC test approval - highly likely given the process and people involved in design and the fact the whole consortium have already move forward with capacity expansion.
Lateral flow utilisation of 80%. Well RTC is 200k minimum. I'll be shocked if they do not want more. Mologic lateral flow tests will come on board shortly, with 75 countries available to distribute. Capacity should achieve 100% but im confident 80% is guaranteed.
50% Elisa tests - Mologic agreement of 46k per day is already 30%
Food tolerance - China self test approval - highly anticipated to come soon
CD4 WHO approval and continued orders - delayed from start of the year due to covid. Highly anticipated.
BTW 5 x earnings is conservative based on the unknown time of this virus and the fact i have ignored tax. A higher multiple is achievable it could be anything from 5 to 30.
£2 he will be gone. £5 values ODX at £1 billion, thats just ridiculous
500p dividend?
I would be over the moon with anything over £2
anyone bought at today prices and can hold for 500 has some nerves , hats off
Bantutrader is a spoof. I suspect we've seen him in a previous incarnation.
Ya - £5 is ridiculous - I reckon £4.98
£5 I be amazed if we get over £3.... Some do get carried away at times..
RegulatorUK, unfortunately that is my target. Selling at that price will help me with a new deposit for a house, new car (mine is 10 year old), loading the kids Junior ISA and Junior SIPP to the allowed max, releasing some financial pressure for my dad and siblings. And A little bit of cash on the side, as I do not think we will be going on holiday anytime sooner.
You'd sell out that cheap? ;-)
As I do every week, I am just here to post about the fact I am just waiting for 500p to sell. Thank you in advance.