The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Unvrkw- wise words indeed ! Please folks, be under no illusion that this virus is anything like beaten. We have the paradox of the hot Southern US States and Wintertime in South Africa, both with large spikes. In my small world, two friends have died and I heard today of another, an otherwise healthy lady in her 50s, who has now developed recurring post-Covid-19 problems with her heart and kidneys. This is a very ugly disease, never to be taken lightly.
The virus has brought the world economy to a near standstill. I understand some folk's scepticism about a rushed-through vaccine, but there are numerous vaccines in advanced states of preparation and even trials, the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine being one example. I believe that antibody testing should happen on a large scale globally wherever we get to with a vaccine. Remember that the uncertainty about the length of time a person can sustain immunity either from having been infected or post-vaccination will demand repeated testing. It is quite likely that vaccination may require booster re-vaccination, but we can only know this if antibody testing is repeated at certain intervals. Interesting to note that in the poorer parts of New York City, antibody testing demonstrated positives in over 50%, but is that immunity long-lasting ? Those folk will need to be retested at 6-monthly intervals if we are going to be at all rational about it, with or without a vaccine. Remember that about 50% of common-cold viruses are Coronaviruses and we know that neither B-Cell nor T-Cell-given immunity lasts very long for the common cold.
It is possible that certain very major political administrations may live or die depending on how they engage with mass testing for their beleaguered populations. Complacency/denial/obfuscation could be very costly indeed politically. We are just on the cusp of very high quality, rapid, convenient testing for both antibodies and antigen. Very soon, no government will have any excuse whatsoever. The cost is a tiny fraction of the economic collateral damage of the virus/lockdown. I just hope to God that governments gather some wisdom and seize the moment for everybody's sake. Please keep safe !
My original point is that it’s Impossible to say what happens next, history say a vaccine will take time however they’ve probably never thrown so much money and resource at it before.
Let’s not right a vaccine off but neither therefore good diagnostic companies, a future where they are integral in next steps to reduce lockdowns and bring a reasonable sense of normality. I think we have a while to go yet so suggestions of Odx being too late is pretty impossible to say. Gla
10 years for a vaccine to come to market you cannot fast track a vaccine the stringent testing it has to go through. You cannot just put one on market and say let's see how it goes and wonder what the side effects are. It could do more damage than good...
Thats not just a cost issue - its a medical ethics and law imperative - you dont expose someone to risk of vaccine side effects unless their is a clear clinical need for them to have a vaccine. You need a quality antibody test to prove that need
Even when there is a vaccine the demand for an antibody Test is still going to be massive.
Firstly the vaccine will be very expensive to the NHS so Doctors will have strict guidelines before administering.
They will have to check to see if you have recently
had the virus with an antibody test which is significantly cheaper.
The future is bright for ODX both before and after a vaccine is developed (if ever) and I think this time next year everyone here will be sitting pretty regardless of your entry £ price.
Something good is going to be announced on Wednesday for sure.
All IMHO of course.
I really hope a vaccine is delivered - but i for one and a fair number wont want to be first in line for a fast tracked vaccine - i'll be giving it 12 months to be a bit more certain. But one concern would be additional to safety is that viruses have a tendency to mutate which could result in a vaccine being less effective - i think all this makes antibody testing even more vital
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-know-about-mutation-and-covid-19#More-infectious
It’s the best thing for everyone. Even in the article it say IF the tests go well and also If the trial goes “really well”.
There is a need for updates on vaccine progress, history says it’s against developing timeframes suggested but you never know.
Next few months I think might be pretty hard for many, gla
If it works then first half of next year.
http://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-available-in-first-half-of-next-year-says-imperial-college-expert-12026917
And they won’t know if it’s a permanent fix, or how long antibodies last. Antibody tests will be crucial not only now but even more so when / if the vaccine rolls out. For starters they’ll need to check if some has developed antibodies post vaccine, and then regular checks to see they are still there.
That’s my opinion anyway and i May be wrong - DYOR
Talking to someone connected to big pharma and oxford in regards a vaccine the likelihood of something this year is very slim, success hard and it’s impossible to say at the moment it will happen, it’s mostly hype, the government have stumped up billions to develop and be number one in the queue .
Not to be negative but to demonstrate likewise with POC, lateral flow tests it takes time, not always possible and we have no clear idea of what happens next overall.
I don’t think any of us have a clear idea of what in the short, medium or long term will happen regarding corona.
A vaccine may or may not ever come, by winter the whole country could be locked down, solutions may be found but quite simply we don’t know.
So you invest in what you believe might happen, I hold and comfortably so. An m/cap covered by more guaranteed products with corona a wild card in every respect. Odx might churn out millions of POC for next ten years for corona in order to create a stable process for uk living in order to overcome severe lockdowns without a vaccine which is unlikely short term to be successful.
This has quite some time and depth to play out, the chances of early success reduce, negativity around missing the diagnostic boat doesn’t seem to be acknowledged as potential in the vaccine arena.
We are now chaotically working towards multiple, local planned lockdowns, an economic recovery where zombie businesses go to the wall first and a level of social distancing the norm. Government trying to badly manage both camps, knows total lockdown is unaffordable for all concerned so how can they manage all risks to an acceptable limit?
Don’t invest if you think this is done and dusted but as I repeat, unless you are way on the inside of vaccine development and know of success which bear in mind normally takes years to understand the future is very hard to predict. We are globally changing, we are going to have to manage viruses that can kill you on the first go around if you are vulnerable and not simply give you a week in bed and then back to normal.