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Sorry Reg,
I didn't realise you had cornered the market on 'idiot'........narcissist
"They could have chosen any other Greek letter why an anagram of Moronic. They are taking the Michael keeping us where they want us for the sake of big Pharma. If if it means more LFT sales......carry on destroying our lives."
Oh great... *another* Covidiot infesting the board.
They could have chosen any other Greek letter why an anagram of Moronic. They are taking the Michael keeping us where they want us for the sake of big Pharma. If if it means more LFT sales......carry on destroying our lives.
atanasoff - great post. i for one wish i had listened more to those "derampers/trolls/multiple characters/ paid for boiler room boys". i would not have lost so much money
i still hung onto the gov contract dream - even though in hindsight the signs were all there.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59457268
10:27 comment on ability for LFTs to pick up omicron
"Yup, I'm here hopeful the SP will go UP !!"
Blind hope, in this car crash, whilst Donkey is still in charge
Love him or hate him twatcher is right.
One thing to note - he uses things called facts and maths rather than hope and unicorns. This is why so many have gone here. Got carried away on expectation. Some of you are still doing it - calling into question a very clear board statement that perhaps it is a ruse and that in fact the government are just about to press the button.
Finally, omega isn’t a tech start up. It is a pretty straight forward business. As such it does need to make a profit at some point. I need to study the figures and I havent had time but if you want to do some proper research rather than the shredz variety I suggest you look at costs, cash burn rates etc. the fundamentals - a word many of you laughingly misuse.
Sweetcornhorse 20th Nov
"We are about to witness Omega Diagnostics go from strength to strength.... And we are part of it. "
Sweetcornhorse 25th Nov
"5p-10p SP ?"
See what Capt just quoted.
Given they resized capacity upwards x20 (100k->2M a week) mostly because of the covid opportunity in general and the gov contracts in particular, it's clear they are re-sizing downwards to reduce costs as the covid opportunities are not what they thought. We also know they have around 650K weekly capacity from their own equipment and 1.3M from gov equipment.
The chart on the presentation told us that the 6 months ending Sept 2021 they sold a grand total of £30K of antigen LFTs, and £400K of antibody RTC
Pick a figure per test as you like, but at even just £1 a test, that's 430K tests combined. I said, somewhat tongue in cheek many many months ago, when the usual suspects were talking about NDAs, producing at capacity week after week, and warehouses jammed full of tests, that I'd be surprised if ODX had made 2M covid LFT tests in total, nevermind 2M a week. And of course I got hounded for it with the "don't be silly, you think those 250 employees are twiddling their thumbs, and they keep on taking on more people"
Give than we know they sold 250K RTC tests in Sept 2020 to March 2021 (and not much other covid LFTs), adding that to a really generous 430K tests for the 6 months to Sept, you'll see that ODX hasn't even made less than 700K covid LFT tests in total in over a year.
I pointed out the consistent dodging of questions regarding, weekly production, total production and stockpiling in the last Q&A. We can see why they were not divulging them, it was all non-existent compared to many investors expectations.
The point of the above is with the gov contract currently dead, it wipes out a massive amount of the reasoning for having 2M a week capacity.
wad - - in the rns
"Given the outlook on COVID manufacture for the UK Government is uncertain, it is prudent for us to re-size this aspect of our LFT manufacturing capacity to meet current and future demand. Accordingly, we would expect to have a lower cost base in the second half of the year"
@TWatcher : Where did they say they were reducing capacity ? They said they were "resizing' and "ramping up" CD4 capacity.
All the covid stock are up except this Sh*t
unsurprising really after the feck up by the board of directors. why would you invest here with these muppets "running" the company !!
we are stuck here, so basically have to make do until a new CEO arrives.
bigbangs
"they could hardly reduce their actual capacity as they have been producing virtually nothing."
You are confusing capacity with production. They increased their capacity from 100/200K to 2M without producing much. They have now indicated they will reduce their capacity
"But there has been no definitive statement from ODX that any
chance of manufacturing for the govt. is now dead in the water..it's not"
If you listened to Colin in his presentation he made it pretty clear the deal is dead . I don't see why you are trying to read something between the lines . unless you have an agenda? not an issue if you do but just be honest as this is something which you have constantly thrown at others on here
CD4 is desperate talk . yes there may be more profit per unit but again it depends on sales - and they were talking about 2023. so that will not underpin current mcap at this time. we also all know that odx weakness is sales - so when they talk about possible income in x years it is hardly a banker.
at this moment in time covid tests are the driver. we still need more approvals and more contracts before the light will shine at the end of the tunnel. the problem is when will this come - we are 4 weeks from xmas so may not be until next year
TWatcher. You are stating that the DHSC contract is dead..it certainly appears that way.But there has been no definitive statement from ODX that any
chance of manufacturing for the govt. is now dead in the water..it's not. From the RNS :
re DHSC.."ongoing uncertainty about their future utilisation of our manufacturing capacity"..a phrase used twice in the RNS.
Also.."To date ( i repeat - TO DATE) we have not had confirmation from the DHSC regarding which test they require us to manufacture"
And.." Given the outlook on Covid manufacture for the UK government is uncertain.."
Yes,the former DHSC contract has now lapsed,but it's still clear that ODX have not been instructed by DHSC that there will be no further need for their services."Uncertainty" and "To date" do not equal "It's over".
Also..in light of the lapsed DHsC contract ,the RNS stated that they were going to "re-size this aspect of LFT manufacture to meet current and future demand".They also stated they were "ramping up" capacity for the "rapidly growing" CD4 market.So it seems they're re-attributing some LFT capacity towards that for CD4. Isn't this really a positive as,from memory,we make alot more money on the CD4 tests ? Re-sizing does not equal reducing,it's moving a part of total capacity to production of another ,more profitable test imo.
Half year revenues for CD4 grew from £12k to £163k..and for next half we already have £800k firm orders up to end of October.We're also moving production to new,larger premises in Ely in early '22. Sounds like a company that is going places to me. The doom and gloom is way overdone,as is the downward attack on the SP. As many have said this weekend,any approvals and we are off.This is bargain territory..for real this time.
.
.
Hi TWatcher yes I read it and I interpreted that as we will no longer be sitting ready to move on the government contract with all the ancillary staffing costs that this requires but will be mailing levels commiserate with a reduced capacity expectation - they could hardly reduce their actual capacity as they have been producing virtually nothing.
BigBang, did you read the bit in the RNS that they said they are reducing their LFT capacity ? This is not just a "we have to formally tell the market", they are now acting in line with the contract being dead, as they have no visibility that gets them to requiring 2M LFTs a week.
CaptainSwag:
"I suspect Colin is also not used to his every word being scrutinised "
I would very much agree with this.
When listening back to the Oct 2020 presentation about the capacity, he stated that most of the Oct/Nov capacity (200-300K) was "already committed". At best, that's poorly worded as many would take that to mean that orders were in place for that weekly capacity, which was far from accurate.
BigBangs:
"I always read your posts carefully TWatcher as whatever else you are well researched but I am struggling a little to get your point. I don’t think you are suggesting that with this single new variant LFT’s are now worthless but you might be suggesting that some are more worthy than others in which case who is to say that the Chinese test are now even less effective than our own home grown test and what we actually have now is a major opportunity"
Bigbang, I frankly have no idea, I am just going on the public information that on immediately hearing that this new variant was on the move, they immediately scrapped LFT's being used for returning travellers. I *assume* it's because this is really fresh news and actually no one knows, so their first reaction is to go back to the more reliable (but severely capacity limited) test. Clearly it isn't a situation that can survive, and so they'll have to nominate / select LFTs that they determine will detect. And maybe in the scheme of things in a week or two, it'll be deemed that all PD passed tests will work and indeed all CTDA passed tests.
It's a "lets improve the odds" thing, until they have further information....in my opinion.
From the Scottish Herald article tweeted by ODX:-
“In advance of today’s results, we took some legal advice and have confirmed that the contract has in effect expired,” Mr King said.
In effect expired is very far from we have received confirmation from the DHSC that they do not intend to utilise the contact and that we should consider the agreement to have lapsed. In view of the effect on the SP I would have expected a definitive position.
He did not say it had been confirmed expired? I do not remember him saying that. They just said expired and
mumbled about long stops
Bigbangs - I feel that is exactly what happened.
I can accept Colin is frustrated that after all the effort put in preparing for the contract that as yet has not been called upon - we all are but that is very different from formal confirmation from the DHSC that they do not intend to call on us and we can consider the contract as lapsed. As you or Computer agreed he is inexperienced and does not realise the implications of every word he makes during a presentation. In his heart he may believe the contract will produce nothing and we should concentrate on commercial opportunities but before he states that in a formal setting he should have been 100% sure of his facts and I don’t believe he is.
I suspect the date of any extension to the long stop date would be key..but odx are not giving that out.
I think Colin could have said contract has expired but we are in dialogue with gov over the implications. If he said it was over and the price crashed and then he reverses ..I think he would be in a lot of trouble.
I suspect the giving up of the contract was not taken likely...as I said before it is a bit of a moot point if the contract is dead or not as it looks like Colin has accepted it won't be used...they can't produce OG and don't have their own test approved.