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@Harvey. Have you added the 100k ODX you own? You were bullish last week. What was your price target again?
CK doesn’t think he needs to inform the investors or market ,just sits in the office drinking his tea & biscuits , all paid for by the mugs who have listened to his hype ,you can’t write how poor as a CEO he has been , how is he still in a job ! 20 months = nothing .
"they'd need to have a deal with a distributor/resellers lined up"
Nothing from ODX, doesn't even look like Screen4 are lined up to take the Visitect Antigen Test, and we know Colin has their number !
We wait, and wait but what on earth is going on in CK's world we all wonder ?
flowflex seems to be the in-vogue one at the moment.
£5+vat for a single test, collect in store for no cost, or pay a whopping £4.75 for RM delivery.
https://mediworld.co.uk/covid-19-rapid-antigen-test-kit/
BigBangs...very good.
I see https://www.simplytestme.co.uk/ have decided in the last couple of days that "<£9" can't be done, now saying the test will be £10.
Nothing from ODX as to whether they are heading into the uk market at this time to take advantage of the government stated shortage of supply. With ordering available from this friday, they'd need to have a deal with a distributor/resellers lined up, as those looking to make money from this will have their test source secured.
He has let himself go a little during Covid and quite frankly is a bit of a mess, I should have known better than to try and lift him and I have certainly learnt my lesson.
how heavy was mike ?
Ah, blew it at the end, mic drop!
Guys, it should be obvious to all that my figures give a fair share of the pie to all and includes £5 plus VAT for the validation meaning my guesstimate comes out at £13.50 against the £9 figure you maintain, which was of course prior to the new validation process, (I could easily trim a little off my other figures) but really as Okehurst correctly points out my argument was that selling At £3.75 gives us £1.75 per unit or £175m per annum - that will do. Mike drop.
Fully agree
Bill Gates must have been privy to the full data on the Mologic test during due diligence
FIND/ Welcome trust /RADx. - the latter contributing $11M
to Mologic - the first two had the Mologic test as one of the best in the world following peer review trials, it’s all in Mologics favour.
I would hope Mologic make the cut. GAD have been set up by Gates/Soros as a philanthropic foundation, they must be sure of their product. Can you imagine if they don’t make cut for UK use but sending them to the undeveloped world is fine, that’s not a good look.
I think their test will be approved for global use, it has to be for any credibility.
TW
Think Bigbangs is saying, assume £1.75 gross per LFT it’s
£175M gross, that’s at say £3.75p net to Government offering £serious contracts.
Think we can assume it’s higher to distributors but take the lower figure as above its still very good - £175M gross p/a
There is of course a worldwide shortage LFT’s we can guess
manufacturer’s will price to the market.
Ignore it.
Bigbangs,
What you haven’t addressed is why a family of 4 would pay £78 for tests instead of £36.
The retail price has to be competitive in the marketplace you are trying to address.
good posts, thanks Big Bangs
TWatcher again I think I have shown that the ultimate retails price bears little relevance to the manufactures cost and profit, personally ODX selling the test at £3.5 ($4) gives us a very acceptable profit of £1.75 per test = assuming my maths holds up this time, that is £175,000,000 per annum. Whatever the retails price, determined by the market, our margin is safe and in my view, very acceptable.
Sorry I note that basic maths let me down in my earlier post, it should read:- 3.5+2+1+5+5=£16.5 x 20%=£19.80
"ODX will not be retailing it. The distributor will. The margins are their business, not ours."
Absolutely, but when you are competing with full validated test at £9, and who knows what other tests will come in cheaper, you can margin away to your hearts content, but you won't sell a test for £15, or £12, if someone is selling them for £9.
The salient point being, all the chat of the last year from many here that said they weren't that worried about the gov contract because the private sector is were the big bucks was, citing ODX making many times per test what they would get from HMG, might be wishing for that single multi-million non-competing customer of HMG afterall, compared to a open unvalidated marketplace where the test is competing within a £9 delivered retail sector, and where the end customer can simply pick the cheapest valid product.
Some people will spend their time trying to beat the system, most of us will not. I don’t really understand your point TWatcher, you have already agreed with me in a previous debate that PCR testing is incapable of dealing with mass testing so what PCR can or cannot provide is now irrelevant it is incapable of providing a service at the numbers that will be required. I have more faith in the second generation of LFT’s as represented by Visitech and Mologic so please let’s stop bleating about PCR which were themselves floured and instead spend our time dealing with the new reality that is LFT’s.
oke,
I'm see on loads of holiday specific forums and a lot of general discussion forums, people have worked out that you can use a previously generated code, so for example when you go to fill in the form there is a entry for the code, which your browser will pre-populate with anything you previously entered. These things arent' checked. No one confirms you actually took a test, or even bought one.
People being as people are, and given theres unfortunately a significant % of the population that are either fatigued with all things covid, or think the rules dont apply to them, using lft for travel and allowing the private sector to do it with no follow-up is a massive step down from PCR in terms of covid testing.
At the risk of out staying my welcome this morning I would suggest another possibility. Would it be unreasonable for HMG to include a ‘green’ charge within the sale price say £2 to cover the addition recycling charges and contribute to fuel offset as the tests will be purchased by those intending to travel? Maybe to esoteric for a share chat room but personally I think it would be a great idea.
Individual people are generally good, law abiding and not uncaring, society is made up of individuals and we have proven ourselves, when the chips are down, to be willing to obey the rules. We will not, however, be taken for mugs, as the PCR test system took hold we knew we were being exploited. Providers would advertise a cheap price but that item would be sold out and the alternatives would be much more expensive. The PCR system collapsed before virtually unrestricted travel was a possibility. Millions of us have a pent up desire for sunnier climes and so once again demand, this time for LFT, will quickly outstrip supply. HMG have already told us that before travel you will have to complete a passenger locator form including a test booking number supplied by an approved testing provider. Details are still sparse about how we will subsequently upload photographic evidence of the test result, of course this will have a cost, will it be included within the price of the original test or as a separate additional charge? The market will determine the overall cost and we can but hope that validated test are UK produced (I am not very confident that this will be the case) but we know that Mologic can successfully produce a product for sale in third world countries at $2 (1.75) a go, there is no reason to believe that we could not do the same but as a commercial operation our trade price would be at least $4 (£3.50) and at 100million tests per annum that is a very significant profit and results in a SP of several £ easily. To guess at a retail price 3.5+2 (picking &distribution)+1(wholesaler)+5(retailer)+£5(validation)=£14.50 presumably plus 20% vat (2.9)= £17.4 and giving each party to the process a reasonable profit for the number involved. This could be a few £ more to cover costs I have not envisaged or additional profit, most of these costs would be post manufacture so even if the Chinese do come try and dump inferior products on us then they would only be marginally cheaper. I think next week we will finally be happy with our investment decisions, like NCYT the SP may, having risen linger before jumping up and will not steady, assuming we are paid on time, until we have a better idea about just how long LFT’s will be required but a P/E is 3 or 5 is, in my view, increasingly likely. ATB
“ On reflection - taking into account the above - we will have to see how the market prices the auditing of the test results but we can surmise there will be heavy penalties for any selfish people who fraudulently abuse this new system.”
A good penalty would be to cancel their passports for two or so years.
ODX will not be retailing it. The distributor will. The margins are their business, not ours.
Without an approved list or policy Twatcher is heaping on the negativity. I don't mind poeple trading as this share offer plenty of opportunity but why all the amdran!!