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Owls, years agowhen I first started trading I was using the newspaper lists from the previous closing and I made a little headway and then I discovered CEEFAX, wow that was great, if rather slow to use and of course 15m behind real time, but I made more progress then but only really looked at it a few times a day and most days, not at all. I had a full time job and was sometimes abroad as well. I guess it was the advent of the internet and then google early finance data, charts and lists that I really liked, I think they are not so useful now. Point I suppose I am trying to make is that to make decisions on only the open and closing prices is OK for long term holds but a quick series of rises followed by a fall is not seen in the closing price. Yes, it takes time often boring to be watching prices all the time and I used to use LIMITs a lot and study the charts in the evening and set LIMITs up for the next day. I still do this when I want time off.
Ha! Having said all that, a few of my long term holdings I couldn't even tell you the price today or the price I bought at!
Hi O - I know I'm not the type of person to suggest anything that would be detrimental to an individual (well not deliberately or out of spite), but I appreciate that I'm only a name on a chat board so I could be talking a lot of nonsense for all anybody else knows - what do they call it? - talking your own book or some such nonsense.
As I keep saying, everyone has their own strategies, needs, wants, objectives so it's up to each individual to make their choices of how they want to trade/invest if that makes sense.
Like anyone, I have made some humungous errors in my "investing life" - one of which was "having my eggs in one basket" in that, being a member of staff of one of the high street banks that ended up getting bailed out, I had accumulated a lot of shares through various schemes over many years - I did have the sense to sell enough shares each tax year to release two lots of CGT, which enabled me to do other things like invest in property, and because of that I consider myself fortunate in some respects in that I had some benefit from my years of saving unlike some of my former colleagues who had millions invested in the shares, so when they dropped to 10p, the gut wrenching feeling I had will never leave me, and for that reason I have every sympathy for the person over at Tullow.
I was saying earlier about how emotion can affect your decision making when you're trading/investing, and sometimes something that you've done that seems to have been totally rational at the time that you made that decision, with the benefit of hindsight, has proven to be the absolute worse thing that you can do, but if your head is not in the right place, you can't see it for looking if that makes sense. From my point of view, I don't judge what someone else has done, but try and give any help/support that I can - whether that information is taken on board is another matter. If however someone was abusive to me then I would have no reason in the future to converse with that person so you've probably taken the right approach.
I've mentioned before that when I found this site, I naively thought it was set up for the mutual benefit of like minded people to share hints/tips/best advice about a particular share/company and soon found out that this was not the case most of the time. You are right about here though in that so far the conversations that are being held are aimed at being for the mutual benefit of those involved with no other agenda.
T, I agree that making suggestions is a good thing and I hope you can prove your system does work, I might then have a dabble myself. It does seem very hard work though. Personally I spend a couple of hours at the end of each month updating my momentum spreadsheets, I then put 1/12th of my portfolio in to whatever is top of my list and leave it there for 12 months. Works for me but maybe not for others.
With regards to TLW I am not as sympathetic as you to one particular individual who put all his money in there and lost a small fortune. I remember the abuse I got from him a few months earlier when I had the audacity to sell my PMO shares. Notwithstanding this abuse it is very risky to have all your money in one share, especially one that has fallen dramatically, they often continue to fall. Momentum works in both directions.
It is good that we can make comments on this BB without the abuse that often appears on other BBS.
Yes I appreciate what you're saying Owls - as you can see, I have been far from perfect this week in what I've been doing. I gave you details of "perfect" trades last week with the caveat that nobody can consistently pick the tops and bottoms, but taking a longer term view, sometimes its better to "trade a share" rather than sit back and wait for it to increase in value - the example you give with Ocado in November is good in that you could still be waiting for it to go back to the £13.90 odd it was back in November if you were buying at the peak.
As I have always been saying, its up to each individual to make their own decisions - nothing about trading is easy, and if we can hear from other people about what they've found works/doesn't work for them, whether we choose to try/adopt/adapt any suggestions surely has to be a good thing?
T, I think you need to prove that this strategy makes money before people are convinced by it. So far you have quoted lots of theoretical examples but I don't think you've made any profit yet.
90% of day traders lose money so G and others are right to be cautious. There is always the risk you can be left with a share that plummets, FEVR is a recent example but there have been many others in the recent past. Even Ocado has had big losing days in the past. It still hasn't recovered from the 21% drop over a few days in November.
Yes exactly - I've used an extreme example there on a cumulative basis just to emphasise the point, and as you know, I've not bought anything for a few days because I've been waiting for things to drop a lot more.
If you look at what I've said about my day, I've asked S to explain his alerts so I can get a bit of a better handle on things because nobody is perfect but as point 8 of my cheat sheet says - don't panic because tomorrow is another day but I do need to address my reluctance to buy and just go with the flow.
Isn't it a bit like me asking you why you didn't trade Ocado yesterday....because you are human and might have been unsure of the outcome?
I'm kind of not shocked by this but I think you will be G.
Based on the scenario you've set, and my saying sell on the spike, buy on the shake, and with a share price variation of 6p per day, based on a 40 week working year, you would end up on a cumulative basis with 1,071,454 shares at £2.40 which equates to £2,571,489 - or you could just sit and wait for the share price to recover back to the £7 - I know which one I prefer.