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Fragile, certainly. Today’s price moves sent slightly mixed messages - the ‘highs’ trend got nudged up and the ‘lows’ line got pushed down. So they are both now parallel (green), rather than converging. FWIW, the price is currently keeping in step with the NASDAQ 100 Tech Index (which seems an appropriate benchmark to me):
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_e04999beade795964642e4d2a8eb9a8f.png
So, despite the ‘down’ day, the overall trend of the last eight trading days remains upward, which is frankly as good as we’ve seen here for more than a month:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_8c6335fcb8945da34a0d752a511c4501.png
yes..fragile..good word.... the markets will climb slowly but can fall easily .....we are all dependent on the next set of data ...and how well it is all assessed and taken......pay your money, take your pick....
Yes, the picture is certainly improving but still fragile.
It would be good to see Jörn Rausing adding to his holding - that would certainly improve the momentum, give others confidence to buy and would probably encourage some of the shorts to close.
Its good to compare charts and to see how others do it, i like channels, trumpets and wedges, pin bars, inside bars, engulfing. The oscillators are good for backup but the main thing is to find those points of 'confluence' where all of these indicators come together.
Looking at the bigger picture on daily time frame and comparing previous bear moves and rallies, even without this being labelled as ‘the bottom’ its normal for a 50% or 61% rally on the fib retracement. As we know these shares oscillate in waves and even some simple maths can be used to see where it is likely to end up.
Ive shown on my chart a big move down that lasted a total of 29 bars, the retrace was 61% shown on the ABC pattern, take a look at the Stochastic and MACD indicators below. Now take a look at the current move on the RHS, the white line has already crossed the red on MACD and its pointing north with a fair bit of gap between, the volume is twice as big which means many more traders are in on this move, more volume = more momentum ( as we saw today with massive drops and rebounds)
A 50% bounce on the fib is 969 and 61% bounce is 1034, we have MACD deep wave, Stochastic going into positive, Huge volume’s which means more momentum, what the share needs now is a day consolidating, mm’s need some shares back to push for the next leg up and weak hands need to take profits.
We must not forget we have the main markets behind us right now and edging closer to this war being over or cease fire.
Someone is sorry and comes baring gifts.
https://ibb.co/37xZYF0
It's fascinating to watch, Newdealz. The ‘lows’ (green) signal a steady rise but the red has kept a lid on it, and then - today - squeezed it down to a level top:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_38e5bd881c4f6a1f42d39128d4a6fc71.png
Whilst there has been upward pressure, the price seems to be finding increasing resistance and hasn’t even made it to 830 yet. Something must pop and I guess it could be your party champers.
dont wait much longer to open that invite to the party or there will only be empty champs bottles and beers cans lolz ;-)
@Boyo depends what day we get boom time, im thinking myself this will be an 8-10 day run at least, this being the 3rd day, im expecting a red day or two in that as well.
Cheers Newdealz - I was a bit thrown 'cos you've been generally quite bullish (well more bullish than me) about OCDO. ATB!
yes you know what i meant ;-) i should at least have said a decent bounce back from that steep drop (off the cliff)
Are you sure you mean a 'pull back' Newdealz?
A pullback is a pause or moderate drop in a stock or commodities pricing chart from recent peaks that occur within a continuing uptrend. A pullback is very similar to retracement? or consolidation, and the terms are sometimes used interchangeably. (from Investopedia).
Meanwhile OCDO appears to be on track for a modest climb along the speculative dashed green path here, perhaps leading to the next challenge at around 910:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_783b59867d958ef908326386e40718fc.png
so many factors point to a major pull back, look at how much we have moved already and look at the momentum on MACD and Stochastic daily chart, its not even out of the oversold zone yet and the angle is steep upwards shift.
https://ibb.co/dL58DhK
As i see it we also have the main markets behind us, not to mention crytpo carange of last week, loads now looking to take new positions.
Chilting: The real question is did the market itself bottom out this past trading week?
That is a key question! I think it would be a brave/naive person who’d make that call right now.
Newdealz: another solid closing daily candle….with an auction close showing just a small amount of selling pressure...
One candle does not a candelabra make….
The day-trader’s view is, of course, different to that of the long-term holder. Here’s a reminder of the trend challenges for any LTH who can bear to look:
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c2acb994320f2f5a7c33882184cefc10.png
Hopefully the blue here has been overcome and the purple will be a technicality.
Whatever happens, there’ll undoubtedly be trading opportunities that LTH’s may choose to use in order to improve their position - which is currently dire for many - but keep an eye on the red.
@SFH dont beleive the hype, there is another bull run now coming, recession maybe end of year but will be quick and hard off the back of this rise.
Goverment 10 year bonds are at an all time high and heavily overbought, its already started dropping which will invertly cause the stock market to rise as they are polar opposites, we have already seen that start the end of last week, bull run will last as long as 10 years yields keep dropping.
Ive got my money on a new bull run for the S&P and FTSE, so much money sitting just outside the market waiting to come back in, crypto will also help with this new bullish momentum.
The real question is did the market itself bottom out this past trading week?
We can but hope.
I don't see the Ukraine war finishing anytime soon but it now seems much more likely to be restricted to the east of Ukraine, so it could become less relevant.
Also it looks like Hungry will block a ban on oil exports to the EU - they currently take 50% of Russian oil exports via a pipeline that they could sell on - so, if the markets see that sanctions are not effective the trade negatives from the war may be discounted. Especially if the grain exports continue from Russia and Ukraine.
@Boyo another solid closing daily candle stick there just off the top of the high with an auction close at 8.10, showing just a small amount of selling pressure, some lovely intra day swings to which you could easily make 20p on just the MACD.
My opinion is this drop has been war driven, its no coincidence the wider market started this down trend at the same time, any sign of a cease fire let alone the war being over for good i think the markets are going to recover fast. My view is its better to be in than out when it does, 75% has already been wiped off this share price, yesterday it was below what it was before covid started so i really do not see much downside from yesterdays bottom.
There are some signs this war maybe near end game, azovstal prisoner swap and Erdogan getting both sides back at the negotiaton table, at some point Putin is going to have to be happy with what hes already got and Zalensky is just going to have to concede some ground.
Have a good weekend all.
So how much of yesterday’s drama was market driven and how much was specific to OCDO? And, more to the point, is OCDO likely to continue to recover and did it, at last, find the bottom? I reckon a comparison with the NASDAQ Tech Index might provide some clues. Here it is over the last few days:
https://invst.ly/y4ub9
This is a 15 minute view and bear in mind the market hours are different, even though it’s a ‘global’ index - hence the straight horizontals.
And here is the ‘daily’ comparison over the last few months:
https://invst.ly/y4ubf
Off the bat we can see that OCDO tracked the index pretty closely this week - so yesterday’s drama, including the recovery from 700, was probably market driven for the most part. However, OCDO has been falling relative to the index over the longer term and the day didn’t do much to change that longer term picture, although OCDO may have finally escaped from the steep blue downward trend that has pushed it down over the last month. It does, meanwhile, still remain in the ‘red’ downward track and, if it simply moves sideways from here at around 800, we may not see it attempt to break out for another month.
Nice finish and my 717p add yesterday now looking very good indeed and extra g and t before dinner tonight for me and Mrs C is in order
Good weekend all
The sharp bounce off 700 will certainly encourage the view that the bottom has been found. However, OCDO was not massively different to some others in the price action from about 14.30 onwards yesterday. Having almost broken free from the month long blue ‘daily chart’ trend (see dashed line), it is now rather hesitant to progress beyond 800, which leaves an element of doubt about the direction from here, especially as 830 should be an easy target: https://invst.ly/y4rb0
The tension mounts!
Much better this morning - just keep everything crossed.
that candle stick is bullish signal (hammer) with long tail, pleased with the close of 774 just off the top, US pulling back again, lucky friday 13th tomorrow ))
A highly entertaining day, starting with a gap down and OCDO following the market then entirely bucking the trend from mid afternoon - filling the opening gap in the process. Was this a credible reversal? I suspect Hedged and Brattus will have something to say on that! But my own view is also probably not - although volumes were up and if it maintains this price or better tomorrow then I’ll have to think again: https://invst.ly/y4iw3
Note that the ‘blue’ breakout hasn’t happened and that the path beyond that is currently blocked by red: https://invst.ly/y4i-h