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@Boyo i sold my complete holding today, bought in the morning sold them and the other 4000 i already had, decided for now trading and not holding stock is the only way for me to recoup my loses at a quicker pace, i made 10p today and since that the price has dropped 20p, ile be back in tomorrow depending on free cash flow as i chucked the lot over on RMG for a bit, US SP500 picking up again after bad start, fingers crossed mks results are as expected ))
Good point Pokerchips.
That OCDO v AMZN comparison seems to cover today’s move back down, pretty much echoed by MKS too:
https://invst.ly/y798o
MKS Results and Trading comment on Wednesday 25 May...so market may well now wait for update on Ocado Retail partnership
There is never a perfect comparison , Chilting, just as Oil Majors don't slavishly follow Oil Price all the time, there are times to take note and there are times to ignore. I’ll keep an eye on AMZN v OCDO as I think it can give a useful indication of whether OCDO is slipping further within its rather niche sector. In terms of charts more generally, I think OCDO has followed most of the norms when it has broken trends and support levels. Any trading mis-steps I’ve made have been - as is usually the case - due to prematurely speculating on its next move rather than waiting for an adequate signal. I’m currently in a fairly even trading position: relaxed if it continues within the 700 - 830 price band but ready to double down if it plunges to 550 or less (subject to the relevant indications, context and prevailing market!). I think suggestions on this board of a 300p target are overly pessimistic but I’m not ruling out 500. Until significant and sustainable profits are generated, I think this remains relatively high risk and vulnerable to even minor shocks. GLA
The problem is that I don't think there is a comparison Boyobach - MKS is strictly retail and AMZN has diversified so much into computer services that it also isn't a good comparison.
There is no doubt that the pandemic pushed OCDO massively overbought and I think it has now swung into oversold territory but most of the valuation is based on sentiment, so I think sentiment will continue to drive the SP.
So in this case the answer probably doesn't lie in the charts - OCDO will simply follow the market and will probably continue to do so in an exaggerated way.
Yes indeed Chilting, AWS is a supplier of cloud based services - a description which totally understates the range of resources that they provide customers like OCDO. But I’m not sure what your point is? I don’t think OCDO is in that league - but I do think that the mix of on-line, retail, warehousing and technical IP is a closer match in terms of business profile than reflected in a broad retail index or my earlier comparison with MKS.
https://invst.ly/y6pkp
I’m essentially trying to identify whether OCDO has become oversold or whether, as Hedged and others have suggested, it is still overvalued, perhaps by as much as £3 or more (which would certainly fill the gap to 541 that troubles me whilst the price lingers near 700).
Boyobach
Don't forget that Amazon has Amazon Web Services - that made $18.5 billion in 2021.
Ocado is a customer.
Thanks for the date correction SFH. The big drop was indeed on the 12th May.
This exercise has got me interested in the performance of OCDO against AMZN, which is shown here, rebased to January 2019:
https://invst.ly/y6jws
This does illustrate a quite conservative comparison between the two - suggesting that OCDO should not have strayed much above 1900 and that more significant disappointment with OCDO only seems to have kicked in this year. Trying to establish a rational valuation is currently rather difficult - it's highly subjective as the range of posts here indicate. However, the chart does suggest that OCDO has been more heavily influenced by factors that are also driving the AMZN price.
Thursday 12th.
And here's that last chart, for May, with AMZN added:
https://invst.ly/y6icy
Interesting.
One of the difficulties of assessing OCDO is, of course, the dual nature of the company as both a Tech and a Retail Organisation although its tech wing is so closely dependent upon retail that the sp is heavily influenced by that market sector. So it seems worthwhile comparing OCDO’s sp performance to a retailer with which it is closely associated: MKS. Here’s a comparison chart of the two since late 2019:
https://invst.ly/y6hru
The main takeaways for me are that OCDO’s runaway sp during 20/21 had normalised by late 21, just as MKS was recovering post-covid. Both of them then suffered a very similar rate of decline from mid November through to the beginning of this month. However, whilst the fall in MKS arrested about four weeks ago, OCDO’s sp has suffered around £1.60 (17%) of additional decline, most of which occurred over just two trading days, the 5th and 6th May, and well before the big glitch on Thursday 13th :
https://invst.ly/y6i0b