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Luckylurker, the contracts that permitted “maximum part time” are long over. A perk for senior doctors.
Anyway, my investment in NWG has been made, settlement occurred yesterday and I doubt I will make further comment on this board
Doctors then go on to work for the NHS & also a private practice & earn very handsome salaries whilst creaming the NHS this clearly needs to be addressed. But yep topped up my ISA with NWG .
Junior doctors are paid appallingly badly in the UK and the sooner that this is addressed the better. That aside, I have added to my holding in NWG yesterday and will continue to drip cash in by way of my regular svings. FWIW, cash thrown off as dividends is being kept as dry ammunition once the downside risks are outweighed by the upside ones.
Case really of sweating things out for change in sentiment. The YTD has wiped out all the gainsfrom 2021 and hlf the gains from 2020. And dispiritng as it seems on a superficial level, my decision to buy T44 (albeit too early) is proving wise.
Number of places at medical schools have been held back, plus doctors are retireing in their fifties on sizeable pensions.
Pub take on sp drop. Inflation is bonds worst enemy, and banks need to hold certain level of bonds. Inflation up, interest rates up, bond yields rise and bond prices fall. Banks then need to buy bonds to make up shortfall, result being less cash available to distribute. Bank sp drops. Time for another pint. Cheers everyone.
Hi MikeS02 - firstly, I appreciate your own input on this bb helpfully pointing many posters in the right direction etc. with their queries.
As you say, Powell's point is an interesting one albeit its also over simplistic (in my view) as so many of the vacancies within the UK (can't speak for the US), are highly skilled which limits 'transferability' somewhat for those living their jobs. The retraining times are also likely to have a significant impact.
It's also a relatively new feature of many Western economies that there seems to be increasing numbers/types of key jobs that despite being well paid, are just not being filled eg doctors and do not appear to be sensitive to salary levels . This situation also pre dates Brexit for example.
My main concern however is that Central Banks ratchet up Interest rates too much and too quickly. Certainly the Fed Reserve have 'previous' for this sort of behaviour.
If this does happen, it will not necessarily sort out inflation but could well take a sledgehammer to an economy still coming off the ropes of Covid only to face rising costs across the board at the same time consumers cutback on their own spending.
Given the unique issues which most of the world has felt over the past 2-3 years, I think will lead to Banks seeing the adverse impact of such monetary tightening much quicker this time around than has been the case in past downturns.
Rgds
B
Safe bets are banking share with tra final banks and having diversified portfolio. This is going to go up no matter how inflationary pressure is in the economy. New loans disbursement we ill be challenging but banks having existing good portfolio of loans should generally benefit. Sadly one would need to wait this quarter to see improvement and test the pudding
Broomfielder, Many thanks for your thoughts, which as always, are interesting to read and food for thought. Not sure if you watched Powell yesterday during the press conference after their announcement, but he did raise ONE very interesting point and as follows: BOTH in the US and here, we have a demand shortage in the fact that businesses can't get enough people to work for them and meet their demand needs. In both countries we have MANY more vacancies than people looking to work/unemployed and so Powell made the point that even as the economy started to contract, which is likely with rising interest rates, then the fact of the above may well mean that even as people start to lose their jobs, then of course with the vast numbers of vacancies on offer, that unemployment will NOT rise and therefore bank balance sheets (not that he quoted that exactly of course, but just filling in the blanks so to speak) should be protected to that degree! Just found this a really interesting point, which made total sense to me, but as always the proofs in the 'eating' - hope it helps
With the Fed Reserve increasing US rates by 0.5%, it looks more and more of a stick-on BoE will lift our rates by a further 0.25% tomorrow.
However, as its geo-political risks that are driving world wide, supply driven inflation, you have to wonder what sort of impact even coordinated Central Banks' intervention will have.
Such circumstances, certainly limit the options open to Central Banks but you can't help thinking a further increase in consumer/business costs at this time (on top of all the rest happening and in the pipeline), could have a fairly dramatic effect on the UK and others economies as they take a similar approach.
And it won't necessarily halt inflation.
So, we are heading for increasingly choppy waters and whilst NWG is well capitalised etc increased levels of impairments are expected as we move forward. Its more a question about just how high these get.
So whereas there was the briefest acknowledgement to rapidly changing trading conditions, the 'mistress of understatement' might have to revisit her somewhat sanguine sentiments expressed in the Q1 Results.
Yes, that light at the end of the tunnel really is an express train coming toward us, so Banks generally are bound to get buffeted in the storm.