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It could all be ready for the last 12 months. They put fundraising on hold a year ago due to FCA.
When they mentioned it first time I think share was still in double digits, but who knows if the numbers are still the same.
I'll hold for a few weeks. Dust will settle soon and market will focus on the coming trading update.
at the current SP level, if all of the regulation issues were sorted, NSF could raise £80 M , not just from current shareholders by RI, some other II could join us in so cheap by open offer.
from Feb only mentioned RI to this week talking RI & open offer, sth is nearly ready. IMHV.
"So, if SP can't get to 10p+, where does that leave us?" - only bod knows at this stage.
What am I going to do with my shares? Nothing now. Will wait till FY news on 30/06 and if they prove constant profitability since October last year, will wait a few days to see directors purchases. Like in February, profitability should lift the price. IF no directors purchases within a week, max two, from those news, I will sell half.
I read somewhere, probably at Countrywide messages, that Alchemy offerred to buy shares from the CWD shareholders (to takeover company). But at CWD the fundraising failed as the contra offer arrived and Alchemy had to bid and finally lost. Shareholders won as the price went up.
How is SP going to get to 10p mariog? Your speculations could all be reversed. I can't see 10p in the near future any more. The market hated the last RNS. I would imagine most people understand that a raise would be beneficial to NSF and therefore shareholders. So why did the marker react as it did? I would suggest it's a mixture of (a) the increased uncertainty with the FCA - the RNS seemed to me to imply previous predictions of 20m redress are potentially quite a way off the mark (the response from NSF to my email also seemed to imply that - the reply said part of the reason for such a large raise was for customer redress. With far more than 20m in cash, why would a raise be needed for that?) (b) the size of the raise, and implied dilution even with SP at 5p at that point, is so excessive it's worrying
You make a good point re getting 40m off private investors. So, if SP can't get to 10p+, where does that leave us?
Johnny pc,
We - ordinary shareholders - hold approx 50% of shares in issue. Rest of them belongs to instututions and N. Utley.
So as of today all our shares are worth approx GBP 7 millions.
Will we - retail holders - have GBP 40 millions together? Of course no. Each of us would need to put 5x more to buy the shares (issued at 4p level). Company directors must know that we will not afford to pay for it. So.. What's the plan behind all of that?
Only reasonable option is to rise the share price to at least 10p. Otherwise their plan technically won't work.
Let's speculate. Below positive outcomes TBA in the next 1-3 months:
Say FY results are OK (loss up to 50m) and they repeat business is profitable since October 2020, even expanding in the recent months.
Say directors buy shares.
Say GL redress confirmed by FCA is OK (up to 20m).
Say directors buy shares again.
Say there is something unexpected announced.
Say they investment opportunity is finally announced.
Say the open offer (this form is "likely" per last rns) is changed to rights issue.
* * * where the share price will be in 3 months? 3-5p, 5-10p or rather 10-15p?
I am not selling yet. We have a risk of losing further 30% from here, but the share price recovery is tempting as mcap is definitely not correct since Feb 2020 when Covid started.
I'm utterly baffled by it all, which is why a large part of me wants out. Something doesn't smell right. But at the same time I can see the possibility of tremendous value here.
If a raise can be done for 80m at a MCAP of around 30-40m then dilution is a price worth paying. But todays MCAP is now 12m. Even at 5p that would only be 15m. To me that dilution is to no-ones benefit - unless it's the only thing that keeps NSF solvent. Definitely something fishy afoot, possibly either FCA are going in a lot harder than anticipated (which is a major worry IMO from the last RNS and time being taken to resolve) or mariog's investigations are on to something going on with Alchemy and shafting shareholders.
Think I'm going to see how SP pans out on results day and take it from there. Feel for those in at a higher average than me and feel trapped.
Great research Mariog. Do we think the names mentioned could benefit from a capital raise at a low SP? Any shareholder with no devious plans would want the SP to be buoyant.
One would hope the board of directors would also be interested in making the most of the company at every point and as such the raise would be at a fair market value. I think your research makes it clear there is plenty of opportunity for the inner circle to arrange whatever they want without updating the market.
This company has amazing potential value in its infrastructure and demand for its services. What else can they possibly do to hold this down? Surely there is some degree of lift to come with the results due and FCA confirmations incoming. Surely the higher the share price at the raise the less Alchemy dilute their current shareholding and possibly get to raise more money out of all other shareholders….
Tbh, don't have a clue. Risk from Alchemy taking over NSF is great, but from the other hand, can they do that if they previously owned Everyday Loans? Maybe I'm mistaken or maybe they want EL back? Then, can they do that? Can NSF sell EL back to Alchemy to save NSF from being taken taken over? That would be a weird deal.
Anyway, NSF said in February that they need money as there are investment opportunities on the market. Is NSF interested in Satsuma or CCD from Provident that will put them on sale soon?
This is very complicated stuff. Strange that mcap is being kept so low and share price is near to nothing
That's some detail mariog. Lots of overlap. Any thoughts on what's going on with NSF now with this detail?
Got lost in my research, but have some interesting facts for those who are not aware of the links between above names.
Question: Will they all allow to be wiped out by discounted share issue?
Peel Hunt: When a UK private client buys or sells UK equities, there’s a 25% chance they buy from or sell to us.
We provide a wide range of trading tools for market access and strategy including a dedicated portal and proprietary algorithms. https://www.peelhunt.com/services/executionAndTrading
4 December 2015 Peel Hunt is acting as Joint Corporate Broker to Non-Standard Finance plc on its £160 million Placing and Open Offer of new Ordinary shares at 85 pence per New Ordinary Share issued in connection with the proposed £235m acquisition by of Everyday Loans.
"Some 25 per cent (of Peel Hunt) is held by a group that includes the motor insurance dealmaker Neil Utley, while 75 per cent of the company’s staff own the remainder of the equity." https://www.ft.com/content/9e89ff52-fb17-11df-b576-00144feab49a
Neil Utley owns 7.96% of NSF
15 April 2021 https://news.sky.com/story/buoyant-ipo-markets-propel-investment-bank-peel-hunt-towards-350m-float-12275946 The investment bank is working with Evercore on plans to return to the London stock market, Sky News learns.
That deal, which valued Peel Hunt at £74m, was backed by a collection of wealthy individuals, including the insurance tycoon Neil Utley.
Evercore works with Peel Hunt and Peel Hunt is partially owned by Neil Utley and then Neil Utley owns also part of NSF.
Evercore helped Provvy (Provident) in 2019 on a defence of a hostile all-share offer from Non-Standard Finance.
NSF is run by John van Kuffeler, who previously was in charge of the Provvy for 22 years.
Everyday Loans was established by its management team and Alchemy Partners in 2006. STB acquired Everyday Loans from its management team and Alchemy Partners on 8 June 2012. In December 2015, NSF acquired Everyday Loans from STB.
Alchemy owns 29.95% of NSF.
22 Feb, 2019 https://citywire.co.uk/funds-insider/news/woodford-and-barnett-back-provident-financial-takeover/a1203495
Fund managers Neil Woodford and Mark Barnett have backed a takeover bid for ailing doorstep lender Provident Financial (PFG) from smaller rival Non-Standard Finance (NSF).
The two managers own both companies and, with US fund group Marathon Asset Management, which is also backing the bid, hold more than half of Provident Financial's shares.
Marathon owns 10.49% of NSF
20 June, 2019 Peel Hunt today reaffirms its reduce investment rating on Non-standard Finance Plc (LON:NSF) and cut its price target to 40p (from 50p).
09 July, 2020 Liberum Capital today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Non-standard Finance Plc (LON:NSF) and cut its price target to 24p (from 47p).