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And I have a feeling might be tomorrow after freeh report.
Gary you will be buying these back in the 900p.
Taverham good points.
These guys had millions tied up in nmc. They figured out a way to enjoy life and not sell their shares. What they forgot is the market knows how to kill you off. They were stupid enough to have done that or the shorters would never been able to close.
Mate they just used their shares and lived it up. Think about it I got 100k in here. Its useles to me until I sell and get my measly dividends I dont want to sell as they are going up. So i give them to the bank and say give me 100k... I go spend my 100k enjoy life.. now my shares are worth 200k. So bank says here have another 100k go take another wife buy a Ferrari. And so on it goes until the shares start falling.
My fear is the major shareholders have raised debt for the company , using their own shares as collateral, keeping debt off the balance sheet, bit like a rights issue butwithout informing the market. Not sure how that would unravel or if there is any evidence for it - but it does seem a bit murky if not muddy.
If they couldn't close their shorts we woulda had a short squeeze back to 2000p in no time. But them shares being sold off by the banks provided the shares they needed. Now all we got is a business trying to prove its done sweet f all wrong ppl trying to get in cheaper ppl like me hoping for a quick recovery ppl thinking when and if this is a bargain..... and if $300 million profit is coming we needn't worry about debt. If they manage to pay of a $90 million bond when not due I think they are ok for money.
This was a inside job. They knew the shares were held as collateral. Shorters need shares to buy back. They started shorting in june. Sent a file to muddy waters in dec. To cause full on damage. Shares hit margin calls. Banks sell shares to cover their loans. Shorters buy them shares back. Jobs a good un. If the business is overall sound shares will re-rate back to at least 50% of previous highs. 4000p/2 = 2000p. But the cycle of evil takes around 18 months. Looking at other targets in past where the eventual busines is sound takes around 12-18 months to recover.
Yes Mark...you are right there...the long and short of it, is that we won't know until we know, so to speak, if this has indeed been a good investment, and any assertions made before then, are based on pure speculation..
CB1234 , I agree totally about the issue being thus far about how billionaires manage their finances.. I have yet to see how this affects the financials....one MW report and Chinese whispers begin and grow at a rampant rate...I deal in evidence , not fifth hand hearsay ..like you though, I am reserving judgement until we know the truth..
Debt is a real concern and how they deal with it....the obvious route would be to cease further expansion , suspend dividends, repay debt, wait for share price to re-rate , then issue further equity to catch up with the historic rates of expansion, without diluting EPS and continue further acquisitions and strategic alliances and partnerships to grow the footprint in existing regions outside the Gulf..
Thanks Adzy re GPN...How long have you been invested there.? looks to be on a meteoric rise...normally I avoid these, thinking the profits have already been made..
Also it's on NYSE and I can't access those shares within my Sipp which is my sole investment vehicle... Is there a way which doesn't involve having to work through a broker...? Also the vast amount of my money is in older established unit trusts like Fundsmith and Lindsell Global, whose track records is there to see and consistent too...
I agree with your choice of Ferrexpo by the way..their financials are excellent, operations very simple and they hold strong position , and they have low cost base...their share will double within next 5 years , probably 3 if they can get their corruption allegations dealt with...a bit high risk though , and I already have one of them ..
It doesn’t matter if it takes a step back before results and report are released once both of those events have happened then and only then will we know if this was a good investment or not. In between now and then everyone ( including myself ) is guessing!
Adz shorts is sometimes what kills people's business, puts people out of jobs and damages the industry, think about that, so don't rant on about shorts does us all a favour, tell that to the people loosing money, kobs and lives be abuse of a MW article!
Although the so called dodgy dealings is just based on the musing of Muddy Waters, a shorting company that has not in the slightest bit been proven. The share issues are based on individual problems. Once I find some actual proven evidence I may well change my mind, until then it is just speculation. The share price value is what it is today, and not what it will be tomorrow. Either way, no one here, regardless of how successful they are long or short, will have any influence on the share price going forward.
Instead of blaming shorters who have actually helped bring out the truth and make this company be more accurately valued, you should be blaming the company for all their dodgy dealings and yourself for a lack of due diligence. It’s hilarious how people love to bash shorts as if it’s somehow meant to be a sin. NMC is the exact reason why shorts SHOULD exist to bring dodgy people to justice.
Don't believe a word he says
Shorters are scum who make a living out of other peoples misery and tragedies.
God will teach him karma in his own time
Is your name Matt Cookson? And another duplicate alias?
“This could easily bounce 200-300% over the coming months and I think it will!!!”
How many times do you want to repeat this drivel?
Alwayswrong - Totally agree with you there, can’t see it being bought out, also if you listen to the earnings call from August the company was adamant that the share price was significantly undervalued at £23, so I can’t see them letting this go now... unless ofcourse they find out the debt and other figures have been fudged.
The intrinsic value of this stock is £40 if everything checks out, but sadly there’s too many warnings signs that it won’t, and I fear there will be a reduction in guidance or restatement of financials coming. Perhaps that’s already priced in now and £7-9 is more fair value... we just don’t know, hence the huge risk.
Happy to help on GPN. Start off by just reading their website and watching their CEO on YouTube.
It’s been an an amazing investment for me, and they just completed a merger-of-equals with TSS, so the company is in better shape than ever in a fantastic payments industry that’s still very early in its growth phase.
I would just caution and say it’s trading at its higher end of its historic valuation range (chart looks amazing) but in my view it’s completely justified and I believe this will just keep going higher and higher for the next 5 years.
Oh and I repeat..I don't want it to be bought out at what would be fire sale prices...better that he is a nobody..that way the sale will not proceed...what is needed at the NMC is a turnaround plan which is actually executed , starting with its over arching governance arrangements..
Adzy. You must explain the workings of Global payments to me at some point...!!
Haha..I agree with you about those still clinging on to £15 by the end of next week , but to me , it's a random short term guess...how do I know any more than they do...it's anybody's guess...
Yes it is very high risk...value shares always are. And you just hope you havent selected a value trap which I don't think this is...The NMC holds the dominant position in the Gulf States and it will still exist after our Arab friends have long departed...hospital buildings facilities and operations cannot be replicated overnight.
I do have another portfolio of the shares of excellent companies that I bought for a fair price and will also hold on to also... I don't trust my judgement of short term share price movements to dip in and out of them , particularly with stamp duty and transaction costs to pay with each new purchase.. I tend to be a conviction buyer , but if long term fundamentals do change then so will my conviction..
Adzy, if you don’t mind I’ll take a look at them this week as I’m looking to add to my SIPP. Cheers.