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Or you can buy Global Payments which will do 20-25% earnings growth (with a high confidence interval) for the next 5 years all while expanding margins.
Risk per unit of return. investing 101.
Regarding your assertion on paper losses, the correct term would be 'unrealised' losses...because you only 'realise' the gain or loss on the share when you sell it.
Yes I agree, if you are intelligent or lucky enough to predict the upswings and downswings of a share price before they occur, then you will maximise your profits..
Well , yes I do have balls , but no they are not Chrystal..!! I remain long..
Il take £20-25 in 3 years time. Plus the minimal divis will help
Muddy waters attacks stroer April 2016. Share price goes to 48 to 36. Bouncing back to 40. And 3 years later to 76.... I think muddys job here is done. 2500 to 775p.
Very good analysis alwayswrong... and I saw the same, hence why I got long at £8.66 initially... and may well go long again at some point depending on PA and facts as they are revealed.
I like to look at return per unit of risk, and return by unit of stress... and nmc just doesn’t meet it for me. There’s be plenty of time to get long with much less risk if all is well. I just can’t see it being bought out by a bunch of nobodies who don’t appear on any regulatory filings. The market believes the same otherwise it would have rallied after pavol krupa was ramping on Twitter.
The fact that you have people saying £15 by end of the week also tells me the bottom is not in. In my experience bottoms form when all the bulls, and especially the dumb money (retail punters), are washed out, there’s still far too many here.
Thanks Adzy....the numbers I have quoted are as you say all historic up to the end of 2018...however this rate of growth has continued this year , and the acquisitions recently made and paid for and recognised in the debt figures bake future growth into pie...
NMC's footprint is growing around the world and I haven't even factored in the GOSI agreement yet because I don't know the extent and content of the agreement.
Regarding the numbers being totally false ? If they are, I will show my arse at "public gate"...
Everyone talks about cash being overstated...cash as shown in the accounts is as at one day only. !! (the 30th June, in the interim results..). That number can change by tens of millions of $ on any one day due to movements in working capital (stocks, debtors , creditors ) alone...let alone capital spend and acquisitions...mentioning the word cash in a suspicious manner is a great way to get people running for the exits without knowing why..
My only concern is their ability of formulating a sensible plan of repaying the debt , and whether the shareholdings shenanigans which are designed to operate mutually exclusively to the business performance and activities have deeper consequences which have yet to emerge.
The thing is with big (ish) companies in the position of NMC all the hedge funds and II's will be bailing, they don't care about the effect of their actions if they decide to sell it will happen and the s/p crashes taking out PI's stop losses on the way.
The II's have investing rules for their funds and you can bet NMC have broken many recently.
At some point (unless there is as yet unproven fraud) the s/p will bounce back very strongly.
Totally agree alwayswrong - that's why you can make money on trading shs, the market is often wrong!
Well minjin...my name on here 'always wrong' relates to the share price, because it' s based on emotions to reported events....over exuberant on good news and over pessimistic on bad...it never reaches the correct fundamental price at that time because it never knows it, it only crosses it on its way up and down...at least that's my view...
Cooperny - see chart below if you think buying based on low RSI is a good strategy. I have this stuck to my wall to remind me to never use RSI alone.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1deqCYL5ArCNSkc26HR4lwQi846PMHln6/view?usp=drivesdk
Good post alwayswrong - but all backward looking numbers. The market right now just doesn’t believe these figures, and there’s a likely chance atleast some will not be correct.
Remember it’s only a p/e of 8 if the earnings end up being true. They could well be, but it’s likely at best to be partially impaired by all this saga and at worst be a total fraud. In the latter case you need to put some probability on this, even if 10% chance of going to zero that naturally would significantly reduce the weighted average target price.
The biggest mistake “value” investors make is buying stocks that are optically trading at low valuations, forgetting that actually the “E” in P/E might be what’s wrong and not necessarily the “P”... and even if not so stocks can form a new trading range based on new revelations.
For me a long position is in stocks with more certainty. For example I’ve owned MasterCard for a decade now and people always tell me it’s so expensive at 33x current P/E, especially compared to its historic range of 20x P/E but you have to look at the underlying characteristics and changes in a business to see the duration and consistency of earnings growth is just so much better now, and recognise that perhaps it was just too cheap historically. The stock continues to make up 5% of my portfolio and I have another 20% in global payments, wex and visa.
Hi @Alwayswrong, can you change your name to Alwaysright because that was well said
It seems to me that the key distinction between 'longs' and 'shorts' on this board can be found in the name..
The longs, by their nature are seeking to buy and hold the share for a long time (not forever , only a fool does that because nothing lasts forever ..). I invest long, with the objective of doubling my money every 5 years..sooner if I can.....
I went long in the NMC at an average of £8.35 and my reasoning in going long is based on whether the NMC's share price can reach over say £15 within the next 5 years , or ideally sooner . I don't care much for the scenic route it takes along the way, just on whether I think the share can achieve this price within the timescale I have set out .. in doing this I examine the key fundamentals .
1...Strategic .....is the company at the growth stage, steady state , or in decline ....NMC is clearly in the growrh stage of increasing capacity at around 20 % per annum via debt funded acquisitions and strategic partnerships..
2 .Operations....forget the brochures and promotions literature ..examine the facts . The NMC scores 7/10 by its patients for the quality of their care , and also by its own employees as a good place to work...these figures are verified by external review organisations based on client and employee feedback... whilst not 10/10 how many of our own hospitals would score this ?
It's utilisation figures at all of it's medical clinics , hospitals and centres, average out at around 65 - 70 %. Ideal for private health care patients , and a pie in the sky dream from our own NHS hospitals..(picture trolleys in A&E) Importantly, NMC as an operation is a positive contributor to society ..it offers hope with fertility treatment etc etc..it is does not earn it's revenue from dodgy activities..(think Amigo)
3...Financials....Growth evidenced by the following.
Revenue more than tripled from $ 644 million to $ 2.1 billion in 5 years to 31/12/18
...profit after tax again more than tripled from $ 78 million to $ 258 million bringing about a tripling of earnings per share from $ 0.41 to $ 1.20....
..the average P.E.ratio over this period has been around 25...now it is just around 8...
4..Debt ..yep , a major problem area....however this has been caused by capacity building at a far higher rate than the increase in profits...it hasn't been caused by funding of structural deficits ...this is a key positive fundamental
Hence my long position....patience, that once the governance and ownership shenanigans are over, the fundamentals of the business will reassert themselves and the share price will re-rate .
Shorts , on the other hand by their definition, only hold positions for short periods of time, making stealth moves on vulnerable shares, they gloat on bad news, then move in and out....
In the final analysis it depends on whether you think the NMC can rise from the ashes of their current problems.. I think they can and am long...