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TBH, I’m struggling to Think of a scenario that Goup HASN’T come up with lol.
Just to throw in my tuppence worth. There is no way on gods earth that the BOD will entertain an offer of less than 30p-40p per share (probably 50p won’t be entertained either).
The rumoured Kissei “deal” was £15m up front and £200m royalties. For the Times to go to print with this there Was most definitely A story here.
Let’s assume they were only 50% correct and it was £5m and £100m and that £100m was spread over 10 years (this is a guess but I’m sure I’ll be corrected if this is pie in the sky). So £10m a year profit, which then calls for P/E ratio of 15 to 20 which gives a MCAP of £150 to £200m (30p to 40p per share), and that’s before 001, 004, Ebers and VistaGen are even considered. Heck, even if we do a rubbish deal at 25% of Times numbers we’re still 15p to 20p without the rest.
When dreaming up t/o prices for a company you have to ignore the MCAP and current SP and look at the assets and potential. Just because the “Market” Is currently valuing Nuformix at £15m that doesn’t mean this is what they are worth.
Topped up earlier this week to average down. I really hope there's some positive news soon on either 001/002 to restore some confidence here, i'm willing to wait this out like I always have done. The results are much needed while we wait, still unsure of how much the last Ebers payment was? the next update on Vistagen will also be interesting
With the way 001 ,002 has gone I don't think we have a market ,
Let's see what the new bod come up with,
I have no idea what the company's worth in its present state ,
I'm just saying if we were close to a deal in Qi it's now Q2 gone , I just don't think they have a deal , anyway we are now at the cross roads the next update can't hide anything, you will see the truth no dg bs
goupplease,
You see a merger or a takeover.
Being realistic, in a takeover situation how much a share do you think we are worth?
Since our only real assets are scientists and the already developed intellectual property it must be very hard to value.
Thanks.
£5.5m is a chunk of cash but it depends on how greedy you are or how close you are to a deal on 002? Depends on whether I need the money? Depends on lots of factors.
Just look at the EUA bod, they are in for a maheusive payday, but they are patiently waiting for fair value...
Whatever happens, we are currently at the bottom of the sp curve......
So who else is likely to be in the running??? Yatai? 2.7bn mkt cap.
This is like a 007 movie!!!
My liver would not allow it !
Why do we think Kissei competitors are not interested? Why does it have to be Kissei just because they developed tranilast?
Exactly Halespur, partly why I feel Kissei are not part of negotiations.
Yuyu’s, if you work for a salary of 100k for 12 years, would you turn down £5.5m on off payment?
I also think if Kissei have a market cap of $1.1b USD they are not a huge pharma and making a deal worth upto £100m-£150m for instance with £10-£15m upfront is a lot of money for them. It won't be pocket change and they need to analyse this value properly. I have concluded those values as it is surely going to dwarf Ebers which isn't a blockbuster agreement at upto £51m.
I'm no accountant but I assume operating income of $17m is what the important figure is for the last tax year.
https://www.kissei.co.jp/e_contents/relation/financial_summary/
GS - this makes sense to me and I'm inclined to agree on your hypothesis here.
I suspect this is why atm we are likely undervalued. Politics involved with a tie-up/deal is even more unknown that trying to guess at values, so we are potentially in a situation where we need some subtle hints as to what the Kissei situation is. I realise they won't be named, but on any update from the BoD, I'll be reading it again and again for clues based on the semantics.
Looking forward to the results now. I hope that settles a few nerves and we can start the march upwards to better days than the last 6 months.
ATB folks.
Kissei and tranilast has a great fit. I know there was some politics as a resulg of them not being able (twice and at considerable cost) to find the key or co crystal. The person in charge of this is on the board of directors. Thats the reason for the delay...to avoid anyone losing face. They need NFX to be seen to be working with Kissei, not a supplier of the key.
This just takes time unfortunately. Add covid to that and the delay has been exaserbated.
We will see how much if any progress has been made when the finals hit that little red dot!!!
GL all...
Unless your on the inside it's difficult to tell what's happening but all the signs are we are not getting japan/ Asia deal ,I would love to be wrong ,
The website was updated , if we were floundering I think it would be left .
So we are giving a good impression. If there's a deal I think 004 will be successful ,
001,002 , what's gone wrong I don't know, but I think timescale rules them out now , happy to be wrong ,
Not necessarily...if the bod want to sell and they have enough votes in favour it would go ahead.
But, with a pharma deal the sp should be over 20p imo.
Lots of ifs and buts however I hope they do the deal...
Big difference in share prices. That's why I asked. So any merger T/O would be when share prices were a lot higher.
It would be a crying shame and well undervalued. This is not AIM. We know our patents are valuable...they need to crack on with the kissei deal before we consider any merger or takeover...
If we hold off until the big deal is done and we ard on our way to human trials this should be £1 plus...
Soup , do you think Dan and Joanne would accept such an offer , DT has been selling so he probably would , mind you once big holders see it in the blue perhaps temptation would win
Yuyu’s, I doubt the major shareholder would reject 14p.
For DG and JH that would be £5.5m . Not a bad payout.
What would happen to the share price should they be a merger or T/O.
Group , surely unless you quote Don Corleone then combined holdings of Those openly known would reject such a paltry offer ( would it have to be at a premium to highest price over the year ?)
Although Ventura does seem very much involved by ex personnel alone
I think we will have results before any news good or bad ,,
My money's still on merger or t/o
No Great Volume or significant trades truth beknown, if there was a leak and it was good news greater volume if bad then I don’t think this could go much lower !
Possibly just speculation on results tomorrow.
Either way fingers crossed