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And has Lanstead been set up to be one of the core investors in the buyout, accumulating a significant position at a bargain price, conveniently kept low by a withholding of information flow.
Filter thats my biggest concern, that we are being set up for a bargain basement insider bid, and the owners will then cash in 'Oxilio style' on the drugs we have spent 5 years financing.
I think we can all agree on one thing here, the bod watching the SP slowly die following 2 fundraises without any kind of action to reassure shareholders is contemptible.
Even the 2p placing looks like miles away now, we'd need over 100% rise to get near! And the 1.5p, that's getting nearer and nearer a 100% rise to get back there too.
Updates are due no matter what anyone says, durability data? Are we getting a new CEO? After all significant progress is being made according to AR, how about updating the market? Or are you waiting for the boys to load up under 1p first?
That's always the worry Filter after the company's old boys club deal with Oxilio
I just keep telling myself DG has significant motivation to complete a deal for 002, i hope due to this pathetic SP we get there and not taken out for peanuts
Same with VRS too filter. That’s why I don’t like lanstaed arrangement.
Ah that was it thanks Soup, I see IMM haven’t exactly set the world alight following their fundraise in Dec
Just about every single thing is wrong with the situation Riddell has intentionally put us in. Namely, a disastrous placing structure that destroys value, a failed promise of a CEO (ongoing for 11 months now), a failed update on NXP002 that has dragged on similarly for months & nothing but nothing on NXP004. Are we being set up for a rock bottom takeover bid - accept before you are bankrupted?
Don't know if they 'work together' as such, but they have been both involved in the same before.
IMM from Dec 2021
https://www.immupharma.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/IMM-RNS-Alora-Avion-Lanstead-Funding-Agreement-20-Dec-2021-FINAL-VERSION-copy.pdf
Soup, do I remember rightly you said Stanford and Lanstead usually work together? Or at least have some kind of relationship? My memory might be deceiving me
The longer we wait for some kind of update the lower we go, won't be long before a 100% rise is 1.5p, wtf
Someone currently pushing the Ask down to 0.87 whilst the MM's are at 0.95 and above.
Just thinking out loud probably wrong, trying to work out why someone would be making such a concerted effort to bring the SP down
I think you're definately right about Lanstead not selling any yet, is it a possibility they're bringing share price down to buy more and then start selling on significant news? So in effect NFX get less than expected (for now) and Lanstead fill up and make even more money, especially if they have wind of negotiations etc.
Agree jiving, it may just be coincidence. As I say I haven't experience of DMA so just trying to understand from what I can see on screen.
Its just interesting how NFX never had a single DMA trade until 1st Feb, when they swapped broker.
I am v interested in Lanstead & thresholds, maybe we could get a straight answer from IR.
Re-DMA, I use Interactive Brokers & on a number of small shares including NFX I have access to DMA (I didnt request it, it just happened). So my orders if the are the the most competitive appear as 'the' bid or ask. So its not just sophisticated investors who have access to DMA!
I don't know filter, I don't have much experience of it so trying to figure out from what I can see.
Typically what seems to happen is that the MM's all come on board in the morning, say at 0.85 bid and 0.95 ask. So if you try and buy you will get quoted something like 0.94 or thereabouts.
Then we see an unnamed party come onto the ask below the MM's at 0.92. So if you then try and buy you will be quoted below this figure, say 0.91.
Often if this is not taken up, that party will disappear then come back lower 0.91 and so on, pushing it lower and lower whilst the MM's stay at the same original level.
When these unnamed parties trades are closed up they show as 'A' trades and the price shown on screen here shifts, so often if it goes through at say 0.91 the quoted shareprice will drop to show that level, even though the MM's haven't budged.
This all lowers the VWAP.
Since the 1st Feb there has been 40.8m shares traded as 'A' trades.
In your experience Soup is this direct market access good or bad for the company? It seems to be a hindernace so far and could this hold us back in the future if it keeps letting people in for cheap?
Interesting point jiving.
A couple of things interest me re. Lanstead.
Riddell has done this sort of funding subscription before, when he was at Feedback then with Stanford providing the funds. Interesting that NFX never had any Direct Market trades until the 1st Feb when Stanford were appointed broker. Since then the price has essentially been controlled by DMA participants lowering the ask below MM's levels.
These trades between the MM's bid/ask act to lower the daily VWAP which is the benchmark for the qunatity of funding received and also how much it costs Lanstead.
On Lanstead, it doesn't look like they've sold any into the market. In theory they would have sold 5.5m per month, so since there has been at least 3 months of settlements they would have notified the market of crossing thresholds. This is something they have done elsewhere so the fact they've not declared a reduction leads me to thinks they've not sold any.
Soup, I completely agree with your observations about the placement. From the beginning it was clear this monthly structure is only beneficial if we maintained a price around 2p & above, but Riddell has not done anything to help that happen. He recognised this in the RNS of 14 December: "A significant factor in Nuformix's decision to enter into the Subscription is that the Sharing Agreements provide the opportunity for the Company to benefit from positive future share price performance...."
It is simple supply/demand, we have a monthly share 'supply' coming on to the market & no attempt to stir up demand with at the very least a positive take on our prospects, a teeny bit of enthusiasm wouldn't go amiss. Also if we are not going to get a CEO (as in reality there is no role) then state it & explain how you do intend to get those crucial deals - they wont walk through the door.
Regarding the minor issue of 'timescales are always hard', the only way we get a deal this year IMO is with 'out of the ordinary' test results. The rumour I heard - that was responsible for the February jump to 1.50p - was that the latest NXP004 tests had been extraordinary & the testing company had described them as one of the most striking they had ever seen. I stress that was the rumour (or likely ramp) but it would take something like that being confirmed to get us an early deal.
But the information to change undisclosed drug to the disclosed drug on the website is already public, would a company really say we know it's public but please don't update your website?
Anyway, I know my investment is safe but this lackluster, part time approach is now tiring me.
The more the SP slides the less money they and Lanstead get so why is there absolutely no effort to engage at all. If there's something big being worked on then brilliant, I'll be worked up for nothing, but I fear the wait is getting longer and longer
Website update is an easy option not significant effort however text must be concise and accurate so it suggests they do not have free resource or it compromises current events.
If they do an interview regurgitating known information it wont be received well, it may well give some respite temporarily (not sure myself) but it wont change trend. They would also know it could lessen momentum when they do have something material to report on. So unless they have something material to present I hope I dont see AR on proactive myself. They could update the website though, only a few words required. Although I dont imagine it would change much from a market interest point of view, perhaps just appease us lot.
They better had, hence it would be nice to know what's happening behind the scenes. Will just drift lower and lower until they grace us with some kind of effort to stop it, I know they can't magic up news if not there but there's other ways to engage the market
In the meantime, it seems to be a very clever way to manipulate the VWAP downwards. Todays being 0.87p.
Direct market access has been continually pushing the ask lower, with MM's still on 0.95p and above.
Given NFX income is based against a 2p VWAP and the 20 day average is 0.91p they are getting less and less.
Lets hope they have other irons in the fire.