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Chris et al
Some really good points
My thoughts are though that we are past the announcement of a recession although the effects of it will be felt later so I don’t expect any massive re rate for nex yet.
Secondly as we have seen with the face mask order I think people will just have to work around Covid until as u all say a vaccine is found
It’s certainly well worth an investment and I have bought in on the basis it is undervalued
shan yes i think a long term play will be no problem, but you can see from abusive reply's that there are plenty of short term punters looking for a bounce like 2 months ago. You only have to go into any city and look around , people are curtailing there movements and face masks will not stop that. We have a winter of discontent fast approaching, unemployment will rise and the service industry will shrink as people disposable income will dry up. Travel will be last on peoples agenda. IMO
It's not a question of whether demand will rise or fall, it will continue to be well below pre-pandemic levels for some time to come. The question is at 32% of the year high is this company undervalued or overvalued? It is almost (not quite) priced to fail, and there is virtually no chance of that happening. So there is no question that anyone investing from here will make money, and probably double it in 12 months (I think 300p is a fair prediction for that time horizon). The question is 'are there better risk/reward options out there'? to be honest I don't think there are that many better...
Jazz01 thanks for your helpful post at 9:26. The problem is if we don't get a vaccine, the question then is whether Nat Ex passengers will travel on the buses in a covid world. Dunno, anyway I've just got in here and like many I guess reckon there is money to be made,( but I might be wrong).
Surely as more businesses go back and schools reopen the demand will rise
It has to be worth a long term play
You can't reply without been abusive, can you?
falklandinvestor Blinkered vision the investors on this board. I wonder how many actually use the services on NEX. You have to think a whole swath of the population will not want to use public transport till we have some clarity on the situation. 50+ will not risk it this winter .
The share price seems to be holding it's own at the moment when the ftse is down, so maybe that is a good sign.
jazz_01 What would you rather do, catch a bus this autumn or use a car . The first person on that bus/coach who sneezes and what then. People are working from home as much as possible, public transport will be under pressure till this pandemic is under control. We are in a mess this is not like a normal recession when people had to use a cheaper form of transport, this is causing people to rethink there travel movements . IMO
**I dont see how the RNS gave any additional news**
I dont see how the RNS gave any additional news we didnt already know that was negative to result in a drop...rather there was nothing so positive it justified people to then sit in this share for months until another update.
Those saying the drop was justified, its the market which dictates the price so the market is always right however this is the same market that allowed this share to go from 400p to 65p and back to 270p....did NEX go from a 65p to a 270p company and grow 300%+ over that time period on a factual none speculative basis? the answer is no.
So to guess the share price even on a monthly basis you will be wasting your time, there are way to many factors at play that can swing this share 15% in a single day.
Ive been constantly topping up in NEX over the last few months, I work in this industry and NEX is in a strong position to dominate the sector once the coronavirus is over, but that is the issue, we are still in a pandemic.
If people arent flying abroad to go on holiday, surely UK intra city travel is in a good place to boom? surely with a recession on the hands people will be giving up their cars to travel on public transport? far more costly to keep trains going then buses, and if you have low service buses, you can easily take them off the routes and into busier areas.
I still think this will get brought out by a private firm before it ever hits 250p again , ive had shares in companies of this size previously and they always tend to get brought out in these types of scenarios but anything can happen and is pure speculation.
Good luck all.
This time I have to agree with you on both of those points Falk :p
I can't belive that some posters here are asking, why the drop?
Just Read The RNs...
Also, The sp will be under pressure till a vaccine is available...IMHO
Net assets divided by shares
There are many variations of it so u may have heard right elsewhere too
How is the book value calculated please? That's actually the lowest figure I've heard quoted for NEX, most seem to be a minimum of 300
i know book value isnt the only metric but the book value of NEX is around £2.09...way above the current share price...well worth a look as most have mentioned below...couple that to the massive buys then it all looks good
There would have been some that purchased on the chance of an interim divi. Not the case. Great price to hold at. I have been in and out of Nex a lot and I did not anticipate the opp to buy at 147 so very happy to hold now. Well overdone
Watch this space - this will be back to pre report sp within 2 weeks - very oversold today, and still appreciating the opportunity to get in at the level offered today.
@triumph1 that makes sense. This board is busier than it has been in some time so others may pick up on it as you suggest. I really hope so, it would be nicer to see the ups and downs happening in the green rather than plunging me into the red each time. Even with the coronavirus uncertainty, amongst other things, it does seem disproportionately undervalued compared to many other stocks
@themuir1 thank you. One thing I wondered was whether the financials might actually give bigger fund managers confidence to invest or increase their holding. I don't imagine it's something they could do immediately once the results are published (please correct me if I'm wrong, but I guess there's a process they go through?), but I thought it might give them the confidence, especially those managing riskier portfolios? I'm not really sure how that side of things works, but imagine that could give a sizeable jump in the price?
I agree its difficult to watch your investment plunge by 16% in a day, and this game takes nerves. Its days like today where most private investors lose money as they panic, and where the more seasoned investor make money as they tend to know when to buy on the dip. I cant imagine why any institutions would sell on that news, and judging by the buy vs sell gap, it looks like traders trying to trade the waves.
There is absolutely nothing in that report that i thought was shocking enough to warrant a 16% drop that was not already known, and i challenge anyone to find something totally unexpected in that report that warrants such a drop. You tend to find that when this happens, the drop actually helps as it puts the company in the limelight, and other investors research what caused the drop. When they discover that the drop looks excessive, they buy. I have done this many times before.
Traders hammered this today.. I'd say don't gjve your shares up. I'm a bit down today after my 2 buys but I'm not worried.
If we do drop further I may have to russle some more up but I have a feeling we'll soon be back abovr 180 before long and then onto the 2's and beyond.
Any goods news about a vaccine and this will easily shoot up.
GLA.. dont make the traders richer.. keep your cash!
Thank you @fatprofits I'd always intended for it to be a long hold, but it feels more reassuring to have things in the green (even a little) just in case. No-one knows what's around the corner and I've certainly not gone nuts, if anything those financials reassured me I'd made a sound investment, but when you get a reaction like today it just raises doubts that perhaps other wiser heads spotted something I didn't.
I'm not in a rush to sell, but when I see my investment running at a loss it always seems to give me that niggly feeling that I might have made a mistake.
I actually thought the results were much better than I would have imagined given what we're going through. You compare it to Tui who also announced today and who appeared to have much worse financials, yet they dropped by less than half as much. For a newbie it makes you question yourself so these forums are great for that extra reassurance.
Longer, the SP dropped today on a H2 outlook that was a little
less certain than some anticipated. Why this was in anyway
NEX is better viewed as a longer term hold imv -
however as with everything, there are no guarantees.
Only hold shares that you can fully pay for, with money that you
have no immediate need for. My best current guess (and that's all it is)
would see NEX trading around 2.80-3.00, within 3/4 years.
As the SP was near that level just a few weeks ago, would hope that's
a realistic target. Many posters though will not have the patience to just hold and wait.