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yep...good pull back from low of 145.
football fans allowed back to matches next month should see some more passengers on trains/buses etc
Decent finish to the day, long way to go...
Don't want to curse it but if we can finish today edging into the blue when all the markets are in the red that surely means its now only heading one way! Lets see at least a 150 finish to a bad week please!
Oversold is an understatement
looks like 145 was bottom..massively oversold on technicals so looking good imho
im still an amatuer!
Was already in for a significant sum, and topped up again today at 145. Unless they go pop (fingers crossed not, as that would be disappointing ;-) medium to longer term this looks very promising.
Just cannot understand why so FEW waste their time and energy posting when their clearly not invested in or intending to invest?!
ok, good to have a balance but I believe that most genuine investors can do that anyway. GLA
And just one for the people who say the poorer will use public transport more and not cars in a recession. Best take a long hard look at the price of OIL and the price of a ticket. IMO
Chrishar Last post here till Nov. I don't envisage an insolvency , i am talking about reduced foot fall and the reasons behind that. What will be the new norm , i think less movement of people . ATB.
Correct Chendo, but IMO it was mostly positive in results re non uk Operations with revenues protected, govt funding, higher passenger numbers, increases in contracts and values etc.
I should add the brokers, JP Morgan, the shorters. They all believe the former. Broker forecasts for the next 12 months are all 300p+ and there are no declared shorts on short tracker.
Comeonvog, the only way your argument holds up is if you question NEX's ability to remain solvent. That is the risk you take in a pandemic but the rewards are enormous if you call it the right way. We both agree that NEX won't return to pre-pandemic levels for some time, you perhaps feel that it will never return to pre-pandemic levels.
It's very simple:
IF you believe NEX will pull through the winter and demand for its services will gradually return to normal levels then you will make a lot of money from here in the next 12-18 months. It might drop even lower but trying to trade that is more or less luck from here on out... Those that think demand may even increase due to people looking for cheaper modes of transport in the prolonged recession we're about to face, then you'll do even better with this investment.
IF you take the opinion that a new normal will mean a drastically reduced demand for NEX's services, even possibly leading to insolvency, well you should certainly sell up now and avoid losing your entire holding.
Right i must go but before i leave you . NEX business evolves around the movement of people , we are in a situation where by movement of people causes more infection. People will have to adapt . GLA
Chengdo4 pandemics no no boundary's, just saying.
triumph1 firstly "All report that they are the busiest they have ever been" i didn't say they had no customers i said "pubs clubs and restaurants are below capacity" as they should be with social distancing measures.
The catastrophe will be the underemployed and how that will effect family and singles.
Its great to see so many still investing and generally upbeat about the future of our great Public Transport OpCos despite tumbling profits and SPs.
At this time we are still very much in the middle of the pandemic and Govt advice still only to use public transport for essential journeys yet most Companies are reporting @ or near 50% of pre covid passenger levels. This will increase to 70%+ when schools go back and holiday season ends.
The glass half full brigade will say that still leaves a 30% black hole in revenue and they are correct but bear in mind Govt have pledged to support Bus until no longer required. Ok no big profits at this time but more importantly Companies will rise out of this no better or worse than they are right now!
Im glass half full and confident there will be massive opportunities for well backed, well run Companies like NEX in the new normal future.
Worthashot I call you sensible because of your time line, 12-18 months . I have also travelled on nex these last two years . I have gone to London 3 time to AGM meetings , me and my wife have gone to Heathrow twice and i have used a more local one a couple of times. You can get a grasp on who is actually using the service if you have been on the coaches or been waiting at the terminals.
I think it goes beyond the government scheme and VAT cut that have caused a spike in sales as this is the only 'luxury' left that people can actually do as not a lot else is available. Even during days when the 50% discount is excluded, they are still rammed. People will continue to spend local as going abroad is not an option and this will last going into winter. Key infrastructure, pubs and cheap restaurants always fair better in an economic downturn.
What catastrophe exactly do you think is going to happen going into winter?
@comeonvog - I have been on National Express, but I’ll be honest and say it was when my alternative transport failed :-) As others have said it is a low-cost transport provider and as such draws support from those seeking cheap options, that frankly have limited alternatives often. I don’t have all the answers and like many others we are all peering into a teacup and seeing very different things. Hence I’m not sure there is any such thing as a sensible investor ;-) all the best to those both in and out of this gamble! In 12-18 months we will have the benefit of reward or failure ;-) I’m definitely in :-)
triumph1 This i think is only temporary and not vindictive of the whole pub industry. We are in August , peak holiday time . People are still spending local who have not gone on holiday and fur-low has helped ( as what was intended by the government ) . As we move towards winter the real catastrophe of this pandemic will start to unfold. The unemployment figures will be difficult for boris to hide.
Pubs and restaurants are rammed. Everytime i walk by a weatherspoons it is mental. Last night was as busy as any night before the pandemic. Go to the pub and befriend the bar staff. All report that they are the busiest they have ever been. As you quite rightly said, don't think for one second the market is always right and evidence on the ground suggests that they are vastly underestimating these groups. The hospitality sector is priced to bust going into their trading statements since lockdown easing, and they will no doubt bring a few surprises.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8614735/Eat-Help-scheme-used-10-5m-times-week.html
Worthashot Good reply and i can see you'r a sensible investor. " Many of the more successful organisations are those that know when to turn down top-line and size appropriately to market changes. If NEX has to adapt or restructure then it has advantages within its franchising model for agile restructuring that others simply do not have.
As I say I may be wrong but I do think we will see a gradual increase in coach travel from today, and significant opportunities in the longer term. " This i agree with and they will need to adopt this strategy quickly to the falling numbers of users. I don't agree about the significant opportunity's though, we are in a place of diminishing opportunity's as world grow slows . Can i ask you have you been on a NEX coach in the last 2 years.
comeonvog you simply refuse to listen......I have my opinion , and it looks like the market agrees. The high street is dead, air travel is dead, pubs clubs and restaurants are below capacity. Foreign tourist's , non existent. "Britain is primarily a service sector economy and a relatively large share of activity depends on face-to-face social interaction that is susceptible to physical distancing. Consumer spending in areas such as cinema, restaurants, hotels and live entertainment accounts for 13% of the economy in the UK, compared with 11% in the US and 10% in the euro-zone, according to Goldman Sachs."
@comeonvog. So anything I say here is a view on medium to longer term outlook. I’ve never been a competent investor in “timing” shorter term market reactions. Frankly I’m awful at it. Medium to longer term, and as share prices, over time, tend to better reflect company value, I have seen more success. In terms of growth there are two angles to consider: growth from the status quo, and growth beyond (medium/longer term). In terms of the status quo my personal view is that there are reasons to be broadly optimistic. There is a drive to get schools back in the UK and US almost irrespective of broader consequences/ trade offs needed. In some markets NEX held up better than I expected such as in Spain and Morocco. If we then look at inter-regional travel, this has been hardest hit, and did not surprise me (as I highlighted in an earlier post). Inter regional travel will be a combination of leisure trips, airport/holiday transfers and a degree of commuting. The latter may seem odd but having used NEX into London I was surprised anecdotally how it is used by many for commuting. I would expect to see that over time many of us learn to adjust to the need to “live with the pandemic” even in lieu of a vaccine. As an example we see holiday bookings are increasing, UK leisure trips are increasing and companies are slowly bringing employees back (I work for a major bank and they are planning for all employees to be back by end October). Some of this is observational of course but I do think we are, in the main, learning to accept that the pandemic may not have a silver bullet solution. I think in terms of increase from the status quo we will therefore see growth from today, even if it is disrupted by regional lockdowns etc. It does not need to reach pre-pandemic volumes for the present share price to be currently understated.
Beyond that the broader question is medium to longer term growth. NEX is in a comparatively strong position to weather the pandemic financially. Certainly compared to many competitors that have dabbled in less successful sectors such as rail etc. I think they will likely see less competition in the medium term, and be well placed to secure contracts both here in the UK but also in other geographies. On a final point we should also recognise that scale in itself is not necessarily the best indicator for future profitability. Many of the more successful organisations are those that know when to turn down top-line and size appropriately to market changes. If NEX has to adapt or restructure then it has advantages within its franchising model for agile restructuring that others simply do not have.
As I say I may be wrong but I do think we will see a gradual increase in coach travel from today, and significant opportunities in the longer term.
Best to buy with the premise that it you need to, you can be patient and go long.