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This is US Data only
Wealthtrasfer
Thanks for the data...where have you extracted it from, out of interest ?
A lot of shares are lent out unwittingly. Hidden away in the small print of trading accounts the likes of Freetrade etc... who make up their margin that way. When the shares are tightly held such as in NEX there is a big opportunity to short but also an equally big risk that the tide could turn very quickly.
Do not know if my broker lends out share so he will not lend mine (Nex )out as i put a sell order in every week for £3 . does it do anything i do not know but mine are staying in my account not to be lent out
You can see the attractiveness to the Hedge Funds in exploiting opportunities. This is the current annualised interest rate to borrow NEX shares!
Last update: 3 minutes ago
Date Start Min Max Latest
2023-06-06 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.81
Heres 8 days worth. If you want to check out against SP movement don't forget the timestamp is not GMT, so use the 'Last Change Time' to work out GMT. Last update: 13 minutes ago
Time Since
Last Change Timestamp (UTC) GB:NEX Short Shares Availability
7 hours ago 2023-06-06 05:38:29.535 9,100,000
8 hours ago 2023-06-06 05:06:09.903 8,700,000
4 days ago 2023-06-02 06:23:55.982 9,100,000
5 days ago 2023-06-01 06:37:37.427 9,400,000
5 days ago 2023-06-01 05:32:25.748 9,500,000
6 days ago 2023-05-31 06:54:58.896 9,400,000
7 days ago 2023-05-30 06:31:14.972 9,500,000
7 days ago 2023-05-30 05:27:42.75 9,600,000
8 days ago 2023-05-29 07:28:59.152 9,200,000
8 days ago 2023-05-29 06:26:41.854 9,600,000
You can see from the table below that 300K-400k shares were lent out 4 days ago and then early morning today the same amount is available again in the pool. Could be more being added or some repaid. The numbers corollate roughly with Systematica but may be something else. Just posted in case anyone finds it of interest:
Time since last trade - Date / Time. - Volume of Shares Available to Short
7 hours ago 2023-06-06 05:38:29.535 9,100,000
8 hours ago 2023-06-06 05:06:09.903 8,700,000
4 days ago 2023-06-02 06:23:55.982 9,100,000
5 days ago 2023-06-01 06:37:37.427 9,400,000
5 days ago 2023-06-01 05:32:25.748 9,500,000
There certainly feels like there is "targeted selling" that kills of any price rise, hence the sawtooth wave pattern.. Could all be automated on part of the shorters - they just leave this operation to run
I suspect.......but who knows...... that the shorter will watch to see if the Bulls come in and attempt to take it up...and if so...sue held back shorting shares to sell and keep the price pressure
The shorters is probably aware that if they sell first and lower it down to ..say 106p again..the Bulls could come in and make that work a waste of effort..
so...we could be in for a bit of cat and mouse tactics ....
My speculation was the directors buy in was in response to that last short on the 24th of May ..
Does that mean this short is yet to fully take place ?
Well last short was notified on the 24thof May.. From the 23rd of May it fell till the 30th of May -118p - 105 p. That was a very successful operation and they were looking to repeat and drive this into the 90s, IMO
Perhaps notification means acquisition of shares to short . There is some sort of rental agreement as far as I understand
Post execution. Hedgies rarely give us a heads-up on what they are going to do, finding out what they’ve done is hard enough.
Need a shorter to talk us through the shorting timeline
a short was taken out on Friday . Is this a post event notification? . Surely its advantageous to say I am going to short a share and tell everybody about if before hand . Thats the opposite of taking a position
Would explain the fall to 103 on thursday.
Then it recovered somewhat on friday.
Shorters beware - they're going to get burnt
Systematica Investments Limited if took out on Thursday sp was around £1.08 would not surprise me if they upped there short again today. Would like to know what there avg is. Why they never got out @ £1.04
Hope results feck them over
With that increase from Systematica again, I guess they see a path to keeping the SP at this level or lower for a while.
Saw they are shorting WG. and OCDO too at the low level they are at. Maybe they just put heavy bets against recovery on stocks most believe will recover.
Looks like Systematica Investments Limited are betting against a sp rise upped short by 0.10%
Now we know why we could not stay in the blue
114.50 high touched twice today - that looks like a big buy order with an upper limit :-)
Wave pattern in share price again :(
that high of 114.50 at 8:15 AM shows the buying is weak and ready to collapse with any selling
the rest of the day has a longer wave form
I would highly appreciate if everyone please express , what’s your forecast regarding Mobico’s H1 result?
Revenue
Underline profit
EPS / LPS
Dividend
Thanks 🙂
Good to see NEX on the editorial of broker ii. “Insider: FTSE 250 foursome buy shares at rock bottom”
No new news that not already discussed here, but positive to see - in summary, a buy signal.
Peel Hunt has a price target of 215p. They described the company's current share price as good value for "one of the last recovery plays in the sector".
If you haven't seen it: Update is 27th July
@ JW
so I am of the opinion July will be in line or possibly better in the bottom line/cash generation aspect because of increased revenues already mentioned in last update
I would agree with that
Joseywales
yes I think H1 will be just to expectation with the extra Q1 pretty much expected against last year.....the Director share buys could imply they have that down too..which would be the same as the market expectation given....hence no inside advantage on buying?
they already raised the issue of School bus being H2 with profit pressure for H1 .....UK.wage inflation has been supported by extra revenue in some ways .... but at this level that was all priced in .... H1 result was possibly aimed for 115p-120p anyway ...say.... cost savings to come through starting in H2... was 120p before the last UK inflation figure came out and held at 120p for the best part of 2 months
The main thing I think is not to have given up and sold out under the pressure of falling down below that, to the likes of 105p-106p which was overdone ...and to build on things in H2