We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
@MacTrader
I totally get it
Everything here is in place and the fundamentals don't match the SP and that's frustrating. Add to that the shorter's completely trashed the SP value with prolonged attacks due to the DHSC issue overhanging and even yesterday giving it their all, its enough to try and grind down the most resilient of shareholders or just bore the few remaining shareholders left here to give up but, what's the point now? it would be madness to sell this stock at a fire sale level. The damage is done.
We are where we are, a £ 228 mcap and a PE Ratio of X 1.7
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/n/novacyt-eur0.0667-cdi
As far as i'm concerned i think those that wanted out are already out, sales volume is really thin other than the shorts and they need buying back at some point. Buying volume thin also but, the moment we do get an update on the DHSC position and it will come, that position will change and the funds like BR will start adding again. So it's kind of a ticking time bomb to short this at this level, with a £ 228m value very little downside as i see it. I'm not selling anyhow, only buying at these levels.
From my own perspective i'm actually adding and pound averaging my buying in, I really believe that this business is history in the making. The Bioinformatics side is world class likewise the R&D division. It's building out as a diagnostics business with proven world wide sales. It's also now a prime takeover target especially with the change of CEO so for me its an ADD.
Frustrating SP i grant you but equally a buying opportunity for the brave. You only get chance to buy shares cheap when there is some issue or other to put others off from buying. When everything is flying the share price goes up and it costs you more to buy in. Here we have a business with a couple of issues hence the SP crash however, they are not insurmountable issues, the DHSC matter is in ADR and will ultimately get resolved at some point, the new CEO is joining the already well established management team and they have significant worldwide sales and cash reserves, its not like they are running out of cash and need a placement anytime soon, with over £100m in the bank and more like £120m-£130m by now they are well placed. A heck of a lot of positives here, lets not lose sight of that.
Have a really good day
Take Care
Pork's
I wouldnt be surprised is this means we are maybe doing some m&a in the background and we get pro forma financials when this completes. However, change of ceo would be odd/off timing wise that we were buying simile and he was bolting pre integration.
@Mac....
Same boat, same storm......the storm will abate at some stage. Good luck fellas.
Apologies Porky, was in a less than positive mood yesterday evening. There may have been drink involved and never a good combo. I am paying the price for a very unbalanced portfolio, nobody's fault but mine. It's frustrating watching some of my smaller investments triple whilst the main investment is on the floor. Sure as hell not selling at these prices, come this far staying in for the recovery. Anyway, no excuse. Looking forward to the better days on this investment, the hard work has been done ready for the new CEO. Sales network in place. I will celebrate when it's £10 again. :)
@Squidge
It's highly likely it will be resolved before the guy joins.
The ADR period i understand is within 120 day window hence resolution before the end of August. Its not in either parties interest to drag this on beyond that time line
I expect we will get an update fairly soon and GM would probably prefer to resolve these matters and clear the decks before someone joins.
Pork's
@MacTrader
Look what I’m trying to say here is that they have already given us the trading picture for the entire audited last 12 months and have also given us the trading update for the first five months of this year Jan-May WITH guidance on the revenues for the rest of the year. They indicated £ 7m for June.
As we know, the trading data provided so far could NOT tell us the outcome of the DHSC issue hence a provision made and could NOT tell us how the new products LFT, Saliva Test or the second Gen Antibody test would affect H2 revenues but, it was noted they could be “Significant” adds.
So, what I’m trying to say is that because the two key bits of data (DHSC still in ADR and New product releases only just going into production) an extra H1 statement now would tell us VERY little.
What would we gain exactly? There is nothing they can say other than what we already know. If GM turned around and said June has been amazing, we did £20m of sales, would it change anything? No. Because the information we all really want to know about is the conclusion of the dispute and how the additional product range can add in H2.
I’m sure when David joins, he will address stronger communication, as I said I’m hoping he moves us to the NASDAQ with quarter reporting, even better but until then it’s the audited H1 out in September and an update on the product launches and validations and hopefully an update soon on the DHSC outcome – this aspect can’t conclude quick enough frankly.
Anyhow, with the SP on the floor, from my perspective, the only way is up from here. Good luck whatever your call.
Pork’s
Reality is you walk in as CEO and you are worried about DHSC with a risk of £127m and a provision of £20m.
Unless the case is going significantly in our favour you push for increased provision against that risk to ensure GM holds the can for that problem and not you.
I'd expect a provision uplift in the mid year unless we are very confident. Even if we are are confident as the new CEO I'd want the protection. Either he gets that or his performance is clearly measured excluding DHSC outcome, in which case he isn't a true leader in my view. Grab it, own it and drive it forward
Sorry Porky9, I will call you out on this 1 aswell. Yes it makes a difference. £10m sales in a month instead of £7m. Massive difference. Future sales of next gen of lft massive if it hits the mark. Numbers count. It's not the end of the world if 1 months numbers don't come up to expectations, but it all counts. If you want your £54 then these baby steps are important. Sorry, but you can't say that £7m a month is acceptable and still spout £54.
I think you give him to much credit, its more a case of had enough, been paid enough, let someone else sort it all out!
time for bed, fresh start tomorrow - fingers crossed!
If I was betting girl Steve I'd say a final bear trap is what Mullis has up his sleeve. Lets see .
I would imagine if they were going to release an update then decided not to it may be because we are close something
material re: the DHSC dispute one way or the other. As has been mentioned we kinda know what the other figures are likely to be.
David allmond won’t be CEO until October, therefore the H1 audited results will be released by GM pre September, that’s at least how I read the RNS. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.
I don’t understand not releasing a trading update, completely agree the one month is key, especially with the lack of comms at the moment.
I agree Donnertrader 100 %.
not the 'change' but the chance
Kaeren, i hope we get the change to raise concerns about past communications at the next AGM in the hope of securing a commitment to achieve a better information flow to Share holders. clearly, this has to be within 'the rules', but there are more ways of communicating that pure RNS{s). There has been a deliberate policy of not responding to investors queries and that is absolutely not acceptable. this needs to change.
Not great Donnertrader but if this guys a marketing guru should improve immensely. Timing crap when SP so low . Best he is good , self praise is no praise.
geniuses when it comes to develpment; clowns when it comes to communication. i despair
No idea TK.
That's fair enough.
Makes more sense not to bother with declaring one month. We don't need an update to tell us if June sales came in at £7m or £10m it wont make any difference.
They can put out the audited H1 before the end of September.
Onwards and upwards from here; product updates, the DHSC update, testing sales from the travel sector, further Promate sales to the NHS under the framework deal and Winterplex sales for flu season should all help boost us forwards.
Good luck all
Pork's
Understand and share your frustration. Enjoy your g&t's.
johnny I agree with you,i as a lot more holders are fed up with sp drop most days,so take no notice of post,just that most of us were expecting a glimmer of hope to the sp tmx,so back to g&t,s,sorry for rant folks.
Tkr, no could about it, that's a ridiculous assertion.
Kaeren,is DA allowed in the kitchen before the official date,just asking ?
Seems as if GM is doing his best to keep the sp down for some reason,I could be wrong,usually am.
My take is that with G.M leaving and D.A taking up the reigns it will be D.A
who is instrumental in writing the next RNS. To do that he needs a bedding in period. G.M although still CEO will not be taking decisions that impact the company long term it has to be done with the full backing of D.A. How long does that take ?