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@barnetpeter. From the FY2020 TU; “The Company's cash position at 31 December 2020 was €101 million (£91.8 million), compared to €1.8 million (£1.6 million) at 31 December 2019 and €19.7 million (£18.0 million) at 30 June 2020”
In what way is this “dubious”..?
After the big fall on Friday I think there is a chance of a bit of a bounce. I can see 500p as a possibility before a fall to around 320p. I would want around the latter to buy more as a trade. I do think this cash position is dubious and the company did not mention it. So anyone who mentions 130 m or something is guessing or ramping. The rns was dire and those trying to play it down are idiots who will lose heavily in the mkts. A lot of smart people sold out quickly on Friday some for a big loss. They moved on. Most professionals do that on a profit warning like this. It was unexpected although the heavy fall from 12 pounds had indicated something was not quite right.
Its a dilemma, but to answer the OP, this situation isnt good, but to me its been utterly trashed on stop losses going out plus the market has reacted to the symbolic nature of another poor RNS and thus as NCYT was reliant on a contract which is disputed its very rocky.
Think this mashed in with the not good end of January prospects have lead many to believe its nail and coffin.
For me, iv been here for a year, the prospects took a while to shine and there were highs and lows but in the midst of the poor rns at end of jan and now this revelation its easy to get emotive and forget that covid isnt done, testing will feature in sectors and society for years to come.
Im dispondent at the way this has evolved but equally walking away now seems like a bad call as I do think this will restabilise in time, but to what level or extent remaims to see, but ncyt build up a platform in 6-9months and can use their products to underline their kmowledge of the field and produce class leading diagnostics.
Its hard to forget the £11-12 values but sub£5 seems like a major over reaction which i reckon will be very mixed this week but likely restabilise once the waters are less muddied by panic
Try and keep focused on a longer term view for me despite how painful it is
I bought in (small size) for the first time on Friday, and will look to add on further weakness this week. The current MCap of £300m looks to be well supported by the cash position + non-DHSC revenues (36m in q1).
Last comment at the risk of being my usual pedantic( boorish?).
Think where you might be in 3 months.
Not 3 days.
Shareholders are market prey and Nov -held by so many “Novacyz”-is a prime target.
We are in April.
What about July.....with no restrictions?
Hopefully vaccinated. But not covid-safe. Covid and its constant mutations ( as all viruses I am told) are here to stay. As is reliable testing.
It’s not really about 5 days white noise.
...is now rid of government shackles!!!
I disagree that we all have different circumstances. Many investors close to identical if not exactly of course. Many of us the same.
But I doubt anyone else on a £78k loss but I would be “ comforted” to be in company. I err on the side of foolishness. But have been here before. I have been a pauper and lost it all. And gained. Not proud. Just taught me a bit/lot. I expect mm’s to want your shares cheap. Up to you.
I don’t believe Ncyt got here just on covid without sense..
They run a sharp business. They are building private as the govt was never to be trusted. I have dealt with DHSC in politics. Jokers in efficiency.
Each to our own
Sell in panic on mm games perhaps and live with consequences.
I agree with switch off this week and 3-4 weeks. Bound to play games to lure holders into despair. But nothing intrinsically changes. And I have lost more by selling out in the past than by holding.
Yes...if you would buy now ....there is your answer.
If not you should never have invested anyway.
No matter what tempest may await...it’s a storm and not Armageddon. Temporary.
Stick or twist.
Hold or flog and crystallize loss . Who knows it will go down further if you want to buy back. Absolutely no-one.
Take your hand and throw in your cards.
Or think think think.
I for one -grieving my loss or not-won’t be giving it away. The company is the same company which
There’s a lot of people on Twatter who also aren’t invested but care very much about other peoples money.
He really does seem to be obsessed about other peoples money. Very strange...
Joker99/Pete89 you still jealous others have made money where you can’t?
Butchers bike utter nonsense
Ramp or deramp. Truth or lies.
Luckily there is enough revenue to get us over this period of government interference. Revenues still building and heading towards 200 million cushion fridays news..that's a ramp they are only around 130 million. Still making 0.5 million a day though.
And another new job advertised today. 22 in total now being advertised.
It would be ironic if the tests earmarked for nhs england ended up in the e.u.
Put more shares in my isa.. more into a separate barclays account. More into my sippy. Bought some for the wife. And she's married again. Bought more for everyone of my 20 numbered family. Bargain at these prices. And they are about to throw of the chains of the goverment that has been holding them back for six months.
Against selling. Seem to be a few wanting a cheaper entry tomorrow and buy in on the drop. Ignore the noise and do your research. https://www.powerof78.com/2021/04/11/ncyt-blackbird-investing/
Nice decision to sell.. unfortunately I increased my holding last thing friday by 20,000 shares..
Posts like that are extremely stupid.. I thought I would join in.
I sold my SIP shares at a loss on Friday, I’ve been invested with Novacyt since October and I’ve suffered few of the ups and downs. I kept buying with the hope the value would go up on the basis of the “fundamentals”. After Friday I finally realised that investing in Novacyt is a big gamble, fundamentals are and are not there, there is potential but that doesn’t mean it will materialise. I kept my ISA shares as I already consider this a write off. My advice, if you can afford to lose the money go for it otherwise it’s not too late.
Kicking myself for not selling out at £12, twice!!! Now I’m looking at the chart and thinking signs were there, double top, change in sentiment. Held through it all and then I sold out in a panic on Friday by accident after getting a quote on my phone, had a sinking thinking all weekend, and have spent the weekend thinking I should buy back but then now the chart resembles a classic stage 4 stock and with sentiment against it I think it’s probably the worst time to buy back. It could well drop further... better to sit back and watch it play out and re-enter when sentiment eventually changes back. Can’t see it going back to £7 tomorrow. We have about 130 million cash so there’s an argument to say this should be 1.5x cash circa 200 million market cap.... yes undervalued on every other metric, but then it’s been undervalued since the beginning so perhaps the market isn’t using the metrics we’d like and it’s been heavily discounting it for the uncertainty that exists in future revenues. I’m sure long term well see a suitable pe valuation form but we might be talking a few years....we need better visibility of future revenues and most importantly growth in earnings to change sentiment
My opinion is without an RNS tomorrow we could see 3 volatile red days before a bounce back on Thursday, so your choice as to whether you set a stop loss - I personally won't be doing so.
I believe in the company and the current figures even without the DHSC are incredibly strong and make the current Mcap laughable.
If you believe in the fundamentals but are stressed about it, I personally would switch off for this week..
I try to look for positives and selfishly I didn't get to do my bed and isa last week.. Monday/ Tuesday are going to be an absolute gift for that strategy IMO
My first post on NCYT as bought in a very small amount on Friday with average cost 466p - already down 10% in couple of hours . This is part of my SIPP and about 6% of my p/f.
All last year I watched as the tickwer appeared constantly on CNBC as a "top moving" share. Didn't look closely as was fully invested with other shares.
The drop on Friday caught my attnetion, when looking at CNBC at lunch time again. So plunged in at 475p with 3% of my funds, and again at 450p when I thought SP was settling.
The case for or agianst selling depends on why you are invested and your belief of recovery or not.
For me, as a new buyer - it is obvious that I will hold for the future.
For those that have bought at higher levels, ask yourself - would you buy this share today if you were not already invested.
If you can answer yes to that, then you should buy more if funds available.
If you answer no, believing the SP is heading further south, then sell up and buy back later if you wish.
Anyone who honestly believes the SP will drop (more than a tiny amount) should back their own judgement.
Conversely, if like me, you expect a recovery of SP then keep hold or buy.
I've seen so many shares that I hold fall off a cliff, and it is no fun to put it politely.
I just review the new information and reconsider by asking myself that same question. Would I buy now at current SP with the info that I now know.
Many occasions I have sold, where I believe it is the precursor of further bad news. More often that not it has prooved to be a bad choice, moreso with FTSE100 shares than AIM shares.
No one "knows" the future, so use your best judgment.
For those using charting as the basis, my experience says - charts only tell you what happened in the mirror - and never let you know whan a profit warning is coming - otherwise you would never get caught out !
Fingers crossed and GLA - CSDI (Crap Share Dealing Ideas, with smiley face)
Only you can make that decision as none of us know the answer, no matter what some might say.
That is why I always go back to the fundamentals of a company and try to block out the noise.
I’m holding and will now re-evaluating my goals with this company but won’t be making any firm decisions for at least a month as I would expect some sort of update by then.
Would I have sold at Fridays opening price if I knew what was coming, hell yes. Would I sell at current price knowing there’s more potential, hell no.
Maybe ask yourself would you invest in this company at the current share price for what is currently on the table? Forgot the losses for one moment and look at it as if you were about to invest for the first time.
I’m confident that we will see upward movement in the SP as think this is to low. How far up it will go I don’t know and that is what I will re-evaluate once the dust settles.
That said I also feel that over the next week or two this could drop and rise as people make their decisions or make there percentage gains.
I’m not one to sell and buy on the dips for a few percent as that doesn’t suit my way of investing.
It wouldn’t surprise me if on opening this dropped further as many will have read the news after trading closed and put in a sell order and that is one reason why I would never use a stop loss.
I have been 40% down on another investment I hold ( I jumped in at the top and it was when I was very wet behind the ears). I held my nerve and kept reviewing the fundamentals that kept telling me I was right.
I’m now 15% up and believe it has a lot further to go.
The markets are driven by sentiment and fundamentals but at some point they reach the same level. Hence why I bang on about fundamentals so much.
I don’t have money to lose but any funds invested will not have an effect on my day to day living and this is why I’m willing to take the risk. I’m trying to build a bigger pot for the future and have a diverse pot of investments.
Everyone’s circumstances are different and that is why no one but yourself can make the decision.
Good luck with any decision you make.
There is a case for talking investors out of acting on the content of a chart..
I have been in this dramatic sp fall scenario many times before and the worst thing you can do is panic sell. This isn't a duster oilee company but a company involved in a worldwide pandemic with many products in the pipeline. I had some reservations about the lack of news, especially the NHS extension. I'm assuming that all the recent job vacancies are to counteract the lost contact with a further drive into the private sector.
The market is driven by sentiment +ve or -ve and will react severely to both, especially -ve. Expecting a further small dip tomorrow and an RNS not too far behind.
WBAfc, will see a revival here and with the Baggies? GLA