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Im another one guilty of some over enthusiastic predictions but we havent had a lot to go on til now to be fair.
Trying to be more realistic. Im bringing my year end net cash prediction down from £200m to £100m/£110m based on those figures.
Would still amazing anyway and we have USA, share of UK £5b and more to look forward to so im confident of at least £100m cash and no debt by year end, unless cash is spent on acquisitions.
Still happy to hold here.
Bluetiger im no numbers man but i think youve made a decent stab at it anyway. Those criticising may like to show us their own numbers.
I would say though that a p/e multiple of 10 is too high until were more sure about just how long the covid testing situation lasts. I personally think its going to be another year or two of testing at these sort of rates then it may continue at half to a third going forward 2 or 3 years or more, what with other disease springing up and the fear of the economy being brought to its knees again, there will be lots more opportunities for the company to grow other non covid sales in the meantime but its all just guesswork of course.
I would say a p/e multiple of 3 or 4 (£6.75 to £9 ps) would be more like it but what the diddly duck do i know.
Any idea when we'll find out who the global strategic tie up is with?
Now that it's proved itself to be far more than just another Covid wannabe, by actually generating cash and investing for the future, they will very much be on the radar for a buy out. All the more so since the SP hasn't shot up on the back of a very positive RNS. Anyone that may have been interested before have just received confirmation that NCYT a valid target.
Appreciate that some disagree on here, but NCYT is a prime target for TO. All boxes now ticked.
I agree with Alansugar. I hate the people on here blaming Graham or the company when in reality they are more than meeting expectations. It's the lse board's expectations that haven't been met - I mean I myself am guilty having said things like 'if we start making £50m a month this is going to go crazy'.
I admit I was a tad disappointed by the news this morning but not because Graham and the team had misled me and others but that I let my imagination get away from me!
Thank you bluetiger for this elaborate outlook.
I wouldn't count on a 10x PE given for some reason the market refuses to value it at even 2x.
As an illustration, the SP has gone from 3,30€ at 9h back to 3,00€ this noon.
Pessimism reigns.
Hence, even reaching a 3x PE would be formidable...
Absolutely! Positive weeks, months, year ahead. Keyword =`Transformational'
S4KSecurity
stong afternoon will will not surprise ,
some buyer buying back in again ,or new buyers this morning ,also 5000 share buyer still loading up this morning
it is par for the course 6 rns that have had very disappointing result. i think the company needs help in considering their content!!!!
"In all honesty, I'm a little confused with this atm. There was a good rns with a positive outlook and this should've jumped, but didn't. I'm confused at why this is the case (I hold shares)."
it met exceptions and expectations are priced in today. it did not exceed expectations as i said this morning. People will always sell on new especially if expectation not exceeded, or the though of imminent news.
Due to the US footprint this one will see some more blue once US markets open and other overseas markets.
I agree that a rising sp is great for investors - my point really is that the r and d spend may not bear fruit and investors must have some doubts as to future returns once the covid income dies down. I am invested here and attempting to explain why the sp is not higher.
In all honesty, I'm a little confused with this atm. There was a good rns with a positive outlook and this should've jumped, but didn't. I'm confused at why this is the case (I hold shares).
Without the ramping/deramping, there must be a reason why this hasn't gone as high as it should have
Correct. Valuations will only get higher as the need becomes greater
Actually Brent it’s true not ramping, every company is valued at multiples. Look at all of the other COVID stocks (50x their revenue), we just need the sentiment to go with it.
Whats uninformed about it - it is mainly based on RNS announcements made over the past few months.
Which part is uninformed please?
Thank you.
Oh for goodness sake, talk about uninformed speculation and ramping................
A few statistics to bear in mind.
Sp has risen from ~14p to 275p - 2000%.
Revenue has risen 900%
Cash in the bank has grown 11 fold (factoring in all the new investment).
Earnings (EBITDA) has grown 270 fold! (€153000 to €45m).
Based on these we do not need to fear further falls in share price whilst the possibility of substantial gains is very high.
Its an AIM stock without a Dividend Policy so the board have no requirement to pay a dividend - and i wouldn't hold onto fast growing AIM stocks expecting large cash returns - its simply not that part of the market. If the board can get a return on capital employed above that of the money markets then they are adding shareholder value. I will be happy if they get that run rate up to £40m a month and get it to stick there - then there will be a very significant re-rating and a dividend will be insignificant.
Taverham, not all companies pay dividends, look at tesla. They would obviously rather grow the company than pay out a £1 per share dividend. I’m very happy with growth instead.
taversham, I think the shareprice going from sub 10p to circa £3 is good for investors.
Bluetiger, the problem is that we have not heard of returning cash to shareholders - we have heard that the ceo is going on a r and d spending spree, which may satisfy his ambitions but not those of all investors.
As good as £22.50 sounds, id be happy with £10 over next 3 months.
Run Rate #3
Its all down to the run rate and how stable it is / or is not.
RNS 27/3 £18m orders
RNS 27/4 NHS 1million tests a month x 6m from may > oct = £30m
RNS 29/4 £90m orders (+£72m)
RNS 03/6 £120m orders (+£30m)
RNS 13/7 £ New Orders ??? June sales + £22m
So the above shows sales to end June of £63 million - with orders announced of £120m to end May - so about half fulfilled - not counting new orders in June 2020 - which were not announced.
2 new products just launched + new distribution in USA so we need to guess - lets say new POC product needs a 2 month ramp and distribution starts mid June on - hence June sales will be lower than July > Dec - plus RNS gives this indication.
Novacyt Run Rate is then back into the range £40m - £50 pcm until end of year because ordered but not fulfilled sales of £5m a month still to go plus June £22m and add in new POC products plus US Distributor sales.
So pick £40m pcm as the sales target - we get:
Jan - June TO £63m and EBITDA £41m (margin 65%)
July - Dec TO £40m x 6 = £240m (margin 50%) gives EBITDA £120m
PTP = £41m + £120m ~ £160m / NOSH = 71m = EPS £2.25 at 10x PE (Aim + Risk) = £22.50 per share
Good Luck.