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B2, agree that some of the cash pile will be used for investment but as there is no way of measuring that we can only try to calculate based on what we know. Any investment funds then come from the cash pile. Cash is only worth cash so more than happy for ncyt to invest it in US expansion.
* Expansion underway in US market, with establishment of Novacyt US Inc and appointment of a US General Manager, with up to 10 additional hires expected in H2 2021
* Targeted organic investment has already commenced in the US with the recent appointment of a US General Manager based in California. Novacyt US Inc, a wholly owned subsidiary of Novacyt S.A., has recently been established and additional investments in new commercial and regulatory hires will occur in H2 2021 to support the new US operations.
So for those computing finger in the air cash piles, - I don't see these costs being discussed.
Is it not evident, that DA, a sales and marketing whizz kid, is going to increase sales and marketing spend in order to introduce fresh initiatives, - else why hire him?
FWIW I left a question for the AGM:
If an RNS announced a relationship with ODDO (28th Sep 2020), why are they no longer listed as one of our brokers?
It's all up from here imo. The accounts now have almost £100m of provisions in there. That is on a supply of £170m from memory. That's 59% provision. Even a 50/50 result not only means an influx of cash but an uplift in the p&l and a release of said brakes.
Let's not forget GM said
Management considers it to be more likely than not that the 30 June 2021 balances are recoverable.
It's more likely that we recover 100%. I'm happy with 50% just so we can move on at speed.
Hillseeker - It is overly cautious accounting IMO, but I’m not sure it would scare off any would be buyers. We can see just looking at the accounts and the RNSs how profitable they are and it wouldn’t take long for anyone doing light touch DD to do the same. An MBO at this market cap could be a possibility and I imagine there would be a lot of PE interest with the revenue size and these margins, if they could get it at a good price, but I’m not sure they’d get anything near the current SP.
I don’t suppose that showing a loss in H1, rather than showing a sizeable profit, is going to hurt when saying to the DHSC that they have to pay up. Also think that it helps to separate out the cash that they can use for an acquisition.
Exactly, Exmex - this development in automated extraction is just going to increase the number of tests used by all those machines. A clever move to focus on this development.
@Bluelight - I hope I am mot being naïvely positive in thinking they are scientists who simply don't want to count anything unless it is proven certain. But is somewhat odd they are counting not counting any income form DHSC but are still counting the VAT paid! They do seem disparaging of shareholders, more of an inconvenience when they need 25% of votes, especially as they need no fund raise. But, I'm hoping this is actually all a charade to exert maximum effect in the negotiations - "look at how much this has cost us" type of argument.
I wonder how long it will be till the launch of the automated extraction and sample preparation unit that they mentioned today .A picture of this was first shown in the recent investor presentation. This unit combined with the PROmate chemistry should really simplify their POCT setup.
I see alot of those comments underneath pretty much match most investors sentiments, as much as I'm against posting on replies to them. Growing sentiment investors are suffering whilst ncyt benefits through bonuses. Be interesting how the vote on that goes on Wed. But can't disagree with them right now
So marrying up Exmex's with hill seekers comment my take is we ramped up for dhsc2 and didn't get It, the absolute beauty of this is they can supply large orders at the drop of a hat and build up inventory if required.
US market. The number of tests sold per month in H1 2021 appears to be lower than H1 2020! This is in a country where between January & June 2020, 37 million tests were carried. Between Jan 2021 and June 2021 213 million tests were carried out.
Middle East, I already posted on. Sales less now than in pre-covid times.
Africa, down on last year.
Europe, take out the Ukraine contract and the sales are about half of what they were last year.
All this when testing in 2021 is significantly higher than 2020. USA testing this year to date is up 20 fold on 2020. Said it before but why would anyone doing due dilligence authorise a major contract with a company that was in dispute with their biggest Client?
Not quite sure what some of the new management are doing other than stealing a wage by the looks of it. They need to announce some forward thinking or any value left for shareholders is going to disappear, faster than snow of a dyke.
For those that haven't seen it this is the section of last autumns contract that deal's security of supply. 22 / Security of supply Upon the signing of this order form all reagent kit's will be available to the NHS. The supply of the further (blank) optional qpcr instrument's will follow upon the placing of a further order by the Authority. The Authority may place that order up to 8 week's after the date of this agreement, failing which the Supplier may release it's stock to other customers. The Supplier shall maintain the flexibility and scope within its manufacturing capacity to increasing demand across its full range of product's. The Suppliers goods are manufactured in the UK and are available for supply secure from the impact of the risk's arising from the UK's exit from the EU or from US export restrictions. The Supplier confirms that it is able to meet the Authority's current anticipated demand forecast of approximately ( blank) Exsig Direct per week for Phase 1 and further anticipated demand in the optional phase. The Supplier confirms that it is able to scale up manufacturing to provide greater volumes if requested. It looks very much like Novacyt did what asked of them to guarantee supply under the term's of the contract.
Yep they have really screwed investors and discouraged it as an investment. I'd usually be banging the drum to friends to get involved, but can't bring myself to do it anymore as they'd probably lose money. They say it always darkest before the dawn but its been pitch black since January. Anyway, stuck with it I guess, but it would be nice if they did something positive for investors for a change, some straw to clutch. How would anyone in their right mind invest given how the company have f'ed it up this year.. They need to find a way to change perceptions
Just looked at that tweet, which I hope is bona fide but where is the proof of association with BBC? Looks like a photo of a lab with 2 Q32s that could be anywhere or a mock up for a promotion photo! Not wishing to put a downer on it but.. Fonzey
Bluelight, it gets even more depressing when you consider only 2% of the company is in institutional hands, 2 bloody percent. Vatel probably hold at least 1.5% due to them having to hold 1m until next year. So let's be very generous and say 5% in institutional hands. What on earth are we paying the likes of numis for?
This is the worst institutionally supported company I've come across in over 20 years. A company making good money developing world class products with half its market cap in cash can't even attract the interest that debt ridden explorers do.
Anybody know a worse supported company? I'm really struggling to come up with one.
This dispute is throttling us in every way imaginable.
Yeah it's a difficult hold this one. The sad thing is no matter how low it gets you just know you'll wake up tomorrow and it will be down another 2-3%. Personally I loathe owning these shares now, but thats my heart, my head looks at the cash and the earnings and tells me its a no brainer hold. That said my faith in the company is non existent at the moment, they need to do something to turn it around pretty soon or they wont have any investors left.