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Understand what you are asking. Governments needed to heed the warnings from Dec 2019 and act. They did not put their pandemic planning into overdrive. What was the pandemic plan and where are we now against this Plan? VanV thars a good question for RP!
BBC Click article (iplayer) indicated monitoring algorithms were triggered on 31 Dec 2019.
Trump was in denial (just recently changed this position) and CDC in a mess with their in-house test which put the US on the back foot.
Wrt UK, PrimerDesign was off the blocs and submitted a test to FDA and PHE for evaluation.
FDA sat on this. PHE appear to also have wanted to develop their own in-house solution. Everyone seems to be reinventing the wheel yo save money. Time is the most important variable in a pandemic situation. Still is... So, the question is:
Is the Government going to use a 90-120 min test with 100% homology with over 1700 mutations or a 2/3 day test?
Its up to Boris. I would go for everything you can get. Order what Blair proposed.180M tests. But order the best not the cheapest. PHE have done the evaluations on PCR tests in March 2020. Where is thus report. How did the internal PHE fair? Cost is one thing, but time is another. We are running out of time and the costs being borne by the country mean a test cost is meaningless. Test, test, test.
With the centralised approach being adopted by PHE, lots of available PCR machine resources (labs, university etc) are not being used.
Germany did not go with the centralised approach, hence there daily test rates are much higher....
Please listen to the Today article referenced
R4 Today (1/4/20) 1hour:25 mins in from 6am.
Tom...could you tell me how many pharma companies were able to supply in volume a test for Covid 19 in January or February?
R4 Today (1/4/20) 1:25 in from 6am.
Test ordering needed to be done in Jan/Feb. Testing should not be centralised. Test takes 2-3 hours. High volumes of tests to control quality should have been done in hospitals, not in a few centres - the time lag is too great with the centralised approach.
How do some experts know this and the Government does not?
What test time for response? 90-120 minutes or 2/3 days. Social usefulness may be about to be implemented ventilators. Come on get on with tedting using the the most accurate and fastest method. OMG we are fighting on several fronts.
NHS STAFF AND CARERS for elderly should be tested with proper test kits
over 80 countries buying ncyt test kits
Jacksdad - raising the profile of NCYT and its diagnostic test for the benefit of those invested. At least we agree on something because the Primerdesign scientists are clearly top notch.
Btw, I don't use an umbrella, not even on a rainy day.
Look forward to your next "contribution".
What's your take on the assay?
Before the lockdown where do you suggest the mass testing should have taken place?
Difference with the UK press conferences is that there is an element of truth and transparency which is appropriate and not always good news or nice to listen to.
have talked to nhs who are annoyed they cannot return to work to help because they possible have a cold or flue unable to get a test so cannot return to work
how many staff are the nhs down because not enough testing
also carers who go around homes helping elderly can not get tests do not know if they carriers or simply have had colds
tomvisual - that has been one of the many really disappointing aspects of the government's response. It has failed to galvanise and mobilise in the way that Trump has in the US. I'm not a Trump supporter but you come away from their press conferences with the feeling that they are now doing things right. You come away from our news conferences feeling flat. The US got things wrong in February but started putting thins right in March.
Sorry LP what was it you asked me yesterday? I was busy sanding a floor.
Jacksdad, i applaud your daughters exploits. But she would have 0 knowledge of the national shortages and response. she works in a singular unit. Not tasked with managing the wider response. She is in the trenches, so to speak.
If we are to believe current figures, a mere 2,000 out of 500,000 front line staff have been tested.
If you draw comparisons to the South Korean & German response they prioritized testing and as a result were able to manage their death rates. As they have a more accurate reading of infection numbers then can allocate appropriate resource where needed.
To boot, you are in no way well researched here, as when i presented you with evidence yesterday you slivered off very quickly indeed.
Van you’re no different to Piers Morgan. Umbrella on a sunny day. What is it you are trying to achieve? We have better scientists here in the uk than those in the WHO and I am happy to follow their advice and not that of a load of pseudo experts like yourself
Additionally do we not have a chemical industry that the Government can galvanise to support the effort against covid19?
At the start of the pandemic someone mentioned "war" as not being the correct phrase. I think we must wage war on all fronts to save lives.
Gnatt charts will become of interest in identification of critical paths.
Anders_UK ,thanks for this link earlier on https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x
Towards the end the report states that even after the symptoms of Covid-19 have cleared the virus can remain and replicate as a mild infection in you upper respiratory tract .This means that you could have been given the all clear with an antibody test but still be able to spread the virus on to others. The only way to safely continue is repeated testing with the antigen test until you provide a negative result.
Jacksdad - your post proves the point that I am going to make. Most of your "contributions" have either speculated about a takeover or have referred to your daughter being a physio, over and over again! Limited in their value to this bb.
Btw, the herd immunity approach that you appear to be endorsing will be the response choice of third world countries; please refer to tomvisuals post earlier on this subject. It should not have been the UK government's first choice because we are not a third world country! It certainly has not been Germany's first choice. Its emphasis on testing has resulted in an incredibly low mortality rate there. Perhaps your research did not go this far!
Put the personal stuff to one side for the sake of this bb, it's juvenile.
Btw, what's your take on the assay?
I am fully researched here. I have a daughter working on an ICU as we speak. Protocol, capacity and PPE are her main concerns. All the noise around testing is unhelpful and a red herring. Government policy has been to keep people away from hospitals and to self isolate with symptoms. That is the correct policy. Those with CV in the health service at the moment are just as likely to have picked it up before the lockdown like the rest of us. We now enter a period where the virus peaks..testing will now become relevant as we need as many fit people back at work as possible. Your brush with celebrity and your wish to sell more kits is driving your posting, not a desire to help those on the front line. As for NCYT they’re doing a great job in scaling up to meet the demand, I am not sure they’ll be able to do it and that’s why a TO is inevitable IMO
test test test well done borris nice too see you back global
Jacksdad - pity you feel that way about it. A lot of work has gone into raising the awareness of NCYT with government and the media in the last two months. Certainly not an ego trip. If you don't mind me saying so, your contributions have been a little light on the research front!
Van.. why don’t you conduct you’re little ego trip in private. This is not the place to do it!!!
tomvisual - for brevity's sake, just posting the question;
Might this be a question for the news conference later today?
Why was herd immunity a starting point for the Government (and its health advisors) with minimal testing, as this has put us on the back foot - we are not a third world country!
I included the Radio 4 information too. Let you know if he responds.
VanV, yes please.
tomvisual - shall I put this one over to RP, I think it's a good one that lends itself to a straight and succinct question for the gov't at the news conference later? Whether he asks the question is another matter!
R4 Today 8:33 onwards.
Prof Fortune interviewed. Only way out of this in order to get to other side is vaccine (or therapeutics) or herd immunity.
Comprehensive serialogical testing is essential.
In fragile health care systems around the world sadly they will have to use herd immunity. Sobering...
Begs the question why was herd immunity a starting point for the Government with minimal testing as this has put us on the back foot - we are not a third world country.
Vaccine 12 months + away.
R4 Today has brilliant articles this morning
Important point is testing is required.
test, test, test.
NYCT I applaud you tonight!
Peston now need to ask conformance of Roche, Thermo Fisher and NCYT tests to positive test cases and monitoring for mutations. PHE made an assessment in March 2020.
NCYT world leader.