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@Soder
Agree, we are looking at solid revenues out of the Travel sector for sure
Interested to read the forward statement this week on H1 Results, Based on current activity it looks like the H2 could well be stronger. I remain VERY confident based on research the 2021 full year will perform well and likely ahead of the forecasts which were very conservative anyway.
It will be forward plans now into 2022 we need to start to hear more about. I think once we can get this DHSC matter out of the way and they can make some non covid acquisitions we can see this business start to properly re-rate.
PE X 1.7 currently needs to change. It can and I'm confident they can do it
Good luck holders
Pork's
Heathrow reporting first half results this morning. Have said passenger numbers of 3.9m in first half which is 75 percent down year on year. BUT…. And this is huge for the private PCR market. They have forecast 21.5m for the full year. So they expecting a truly HUGE 17.6m/551 percent rise in second half passenger volumes. WOW. All needing at least 1 private PCR test on return.
For sure the government will keep the travel testing requirements for at least until the end of this year.
We post what we can research. The global nature of the business will have some additional revenue. Germany mainly?
As long as the research and development keep the products up to date it will give novacyt more of a chance to put sales people into different parts of the world..
News out of america would be good. Maybe a mention in the upcoming update.?? Or the half yearly results.
I'd take the passenger stats with a pinch of salt, I'm working within the industry and although many destinations are once again available the passenger numbers are poor. Yesterday a B737 (capacity 189) to Mahon with only 70 passengers. An A320 to Barcelona approx 40 passengers. Jet2 appear to be combining flights, for instance Jet2 have just landed at Stansted from Newcastle to pick up passengers for Gran Canaria, similar situation with other bases at Birmingham, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Belfast. The Aviation industry still facing significant head winds, although end of the day, I'm sure that NCYT shall be seeing some benefit.
Sorry should say the airport data is not all daily. Some is over this weekend - Friday to monday.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9822003/Six-million-face-holiday-trauma-Spain-Greece-join-French-restrictions.html
6m from Greece and Spain alone.
That article also gives some daily data.
Today the following will have the below arrivals:
Gatwick 60k passengers on 260 flights
Heathrow 60k
Bham 11k passengers on 59 flights
Luton 17k
East mids 254 flights
Manchester 958 flights
Stanstead 1330 flights
No matter where you come from (excluding domestic) everyone of those passengers need at least 1 ‘day 2’ pcr test.
There is some amazing data in that article that should blow people’s minds. EasyJet will fly 135k brits A DAY over this weekend. Then, Gatwick will do 25k-27k passengers A DAY on 260 daily flights up from 15 during lockdown.
If we have 25 per cent mkt share of the private mkt in U.K.and we are cleaning up over the next months. Forget the dhsc. This is real money.
Home LFT, not loft
Correct, home loft, and without a doubt I bet you are correct that those who have paid a big wedge for their holiday are not going to produce a positive Covid result.
Was it a home LFT test? If so I bet the majority will "pass" the test without using the swabs in order to go on holiday abroad. Absolute madness. PCR is foolproof as long as there are no dodgy testing companies dishing out "Fit to Fly" certificates without processing any test.
I recently flew and my LFT was accepted, so PCR is not the only accepted test in order to board an aeroplane and depart the UK foe Europe.
Most won’t need a pcr to leave now as diy le jabbed. And obv the passenger data by airline will include all countries and both legs of a journey.
Useful info re 737 use so my number there is overstated. But sounds like number of flighting landing here per day massively understated.
This is from ezjs report this week. Passenger numbers.
April 21 524k
May 2021 870k
June 2021 1591k
Q3 2021 2985k
EZJ just published its annual report and if my memory serves me well they had a monthly forecast for passenger numbers. What surprised me was the big increase they'd seen and are predicting.
Ryanair and easyjet don't fly 747s. They use short haul aircraft, 737s and a320s respectively. About 150-200 passengers per aircraft.
Theyre both listed companies though and they give detailed projections on expected traffic numbers. 2019 numbers were in excess of 240m through UK airports. This usually peaks in July and August.
Ryan Air, jet2, easyJet etc use 737s which carry around 190 passengers.
Not sure on number of flights but I'd suspect much more than that across the whole UK. Plus don't forget the return flight. Assuming you need pcr to leave and to return you should assume double your calcs to account for holiday makers returning. Of course return legs might not use ncyt but if we are in the airlines maybe they offer them, and we know some of these countries use our test(so maybe multiply by 1.5 rather than 2). Ukraine airports for example use ncyt tests.
It is usually around 300m per year ( normal times) but now I would suspect will be more like 100m at present - say 2m per week https://www.airportwatch.org.uk/recent-airport-figures/
…. Just read a piece in the mail (don’t judge me) re airports being full as the remaining schools broke up yesterday. I am lucky enough to hopefully heading off to Majorca in a few weeks. First world woes, but man I feel I need it. Anyway, just got me thinking about how everyone one of those at the support will need AT LEAST one PCR as part of that trip depending upon vaccination status. So how many private pcr tests would that be over the next 6 weeks?
The caa data is only up to date for May be I am going to do some digging as I think Ryanair and easy jet etc do release passenger numbers. But really crudely….
A 747 hold 600 people
Assume a happy returning flight in the month is 80 percent full
Across all U.K. airports how many daily flights are coming in from tui, easyJet, Ryanair etc etc. I am just picking a number…. Let’s say 100!? Anyone know if that is miles away? I genuinely have no clue.
Anyway 100 flight x 600 capacity x 80% full = 48k people every day for next 6 weeks obliged to buy a day 2 pcr. Say we have 30 percent market share. That’s 14.4K tests a day for next 6 weeks (42 days) = 604.8k tests we could be doing. What do we make net per test? If a tests costs 75 quid you have to think our ebitda per test is 5 quid? That would be 3m quid if ebitda right there. In one month. Excluding any foreign sales, and snpsig sales, any nhs sales, any LFT sales, cruise ship sales, oil rig sales etc etc
Anyone have any colour to firm this up on any of the following.
- no of flights landing or passengers arriving in U.K. at moment?
- our gross and net we make per test sold in the private mkt. it has to be higher than higher volume dhsc sales.
- what mkt share we have of travel testing space?