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ShaunP,
I also agree with you.
Novacyt has always delivered what they planned to and on time. No delays.
This is the results of good leadership, but also of passionate and dedicated people.
Novacyt has the spirit of a start-up, always available to find solutions and to fix some of the world issues in their perimeter.
Agree HC, im not saying it's not important it's the foundations that allows the company to grow but what im seeing is nobody is resting on their Laurels and all avenues and opportunities are being explored, in particular the USA which could, excuse the pun Trump all else.
Bangerracing, I think the exact opposite. The fact that novacyt have such a strong relationship with the government is what has taken this from a solid investment to a nailed-on winner. Health spending yearly is around the £175b mark if I'm not mistaken - with the promise to transform the UK's diagnostic sector over the next five years the relationship with the government really is invaluable.
I would have to say Novacyt has not put a foot wrong, I dont honestly think it needs UK Gov to keep it going it is looking like a World Beater to me, time will tell, but i'm not seeing much out there that holds a Candle to the possibilities offered here.
When you say GM likes to under promise and over deliver, I suspect it also helps in negotiation of contracts to not shout from the roof tops about the margins being made. You also don't want bad press "Profiteering from a Pandemic".
All this is great for investors who know and see the value. So many AIM companies are "Jam Tomorrow".
ODX revenue split 4 ways in the consortium and only manufacture 25% of main test
GDR test being developed and ready for sale from January - too slow!
Novacyt ahead of the competition with innovation and when they announce products they're almost ready to go!
Lucky enough to buy in at 45p in Feb. STRONG HOLD!
Regarding revenue forecasts, the difficulty as well is that GM has a tendancy to play down the numbers.
Even Leon Boros during MellonMonday insisted on it: "this company seems to like to under-promise and over-deliver".
So we can forget about the $150m revenue forecast for H2, it's going to be blown up !
Apparently, US are starting to be very active and US is the biggest market for Near Patient testing, so our razor blade model could work very well in that market.
So $250m-$300m + NHC contrat should be a good estimate.
What I like from all the feedback from professional investors we have listened too (MellonMonday, PIWorld,...) is that they are impressed and didn't realize about Novacyt value until recently.
In a sense it has been a blessing for us that Novacyt was growing out of their radar. We are lucky for that as it resulted in some good investment opportunities. And that's what Leon Boros noticed when he mentioned the fact that the market was not reacting to RNS published.
Anyway, GM is a prudent and intelligent person, he plays down the numbers and surprises ....
I am everyday amazed by this company and feel lucky to have come into it.
I can see Novacyt becoming one of the main players in rapid testing in the future. If they purchase the right companies and continue their research they can very quickly readjust to changing demand. Fingers crossed.
Shaun,
Yes, truly a unique stock is NCYT. How do you value a stock like this? Making Hundreds on millions in profit in the very short term, but what are they going to be making in 5 years time? Is it a bubble that will burst or are they positioning them selves well for the future.?
Thank you Bing and wilson i was on a zoom call at 1 so couldn't listen so just read through the rest of the notes. Certainly sounds bullish and very interesting that they think we could be bought out by GSK. It is very quite on the news front coming from Nova so who knows. I certainly think a 3-5b buyout price based on a pe 5/10 could be really possible which could give us a £30 £50 sp price.
all speculation of course but looking at the run we had today with no news we are all certainly cooking on Gas. Well done to those that held today. As we get up higher and Higher on the sp its getting much harder for us old timers that have held from March/April to hang on in there. Im now sitting on a nice profit which is beyond what I thought was possible. I strongly believe there is more in the tank though so well done to those that bought today as this train/ rocket call it what you like is definitely proving to be a once in a lifetime opportunity.
regards
Bramley 1967
ShaunP re written notes from interview I'd b e surprised I'd suppose The novacyt insider may try in the morning. Otherwise somebody said it's rptd tomorrow.
Today's should be on the site tomorrow.
In a very positive news cycle at the moment. You never know it might hit the mainstream media soon. Fireworks then.
Looking forward to the special, all good exposure
Hey Shaun,
Yes, the forecast revenues do differ significantly. What I find interesting is your forecast is VERY bullish on revenue but you have the lowest valuation. It implies if Numis were using your revenue forecasts we would be in their "Blue sky" territory 3400p + !! Time will tell !
https://filebin.net/mgx37vi5kexgvfz8
I'll update as more valuations come in (we are still waiting for the French one)
Have spoken to someone at PIworld, special is genuine Infor.
Just the brokers comment, B2 said something about it and posted before perhaps his/her link will help. Broker was very sure they had a joke about it being us and not Zimbabwe dollars.
B2 Tks too much going on lol
B2H funny that 3 people reccomend lol
For anyone who missed my last post I have compiled a comparison of revenue forecasts and target price for
Numis, Sp Angel, and of course Shaun P.
https://filebin.net/mgx37vi5kexgvfz8
Let's wait then. I hope you are right, I could have misunderstood it.
No, Im sure the lady said we will be prerecording it for next week.
I took it to be genuine.
FFS not Shaun, - Shaun owns the bl**dy spreadsheet!
FAO Wilson63
Shaun, ignore if you know this.
1 Download this file -
https://filebin.net/obbxid0slw185sl0/00__Novacyt_Financial_Analysis_as_at_21st_October_2020.pdf?t=5t8849d7
2 press shift and F3 to get search facility.
Zimbabwe and Hungary deals are visible.
Apologies if the above is known to you.
@Bing007 I might be wrong, but I've considered that Novacyt special an interviewer's joke. Am I the only one with that feeling?
ShaunP we knew about a 20mil dollar Hungarian deal( didn't think it was that much) and Lenny the family house broker said about a 25 mil usd deal for Zimbabwe have I missed that one!!?