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Soupdragon78. You can read it here.
https://www.government-online.net/national-microbiology-framework/
Soupdragon78. And again for clarity. I never said that.
Jonathan, given the number of posts here today and the time of yours, no I didn’t see it. So, as you know it’s a framework so the 5bn figure doesn’t all relate to testing, nor will it be to one company.
Soupdragon78. I didn't say that, you obviously never read my 23.59 post last night.
I see we have some new shorts in today, good good. They'll drive it to new highs when they get stopped out, we've been missing this for a while. Happy days.
Was hoping for the cup and handle but i think the other option may instead be true.
Without momentum this is nothing given the expected relatively short half life of the boom.
They only cared about investors when they were struggling for biscuit money
Good thread Matt.
I too have been surprised by the sales, and even more by the average selling price.
25m€ worth of sales for June, assuming the output was 8m tests, that works out at roughly 3€ per test.
But are we even sure that this sales figure covers the whole production output ?
Or that they did reach their production target of 8m tests per month (let alone 10m) ?
I'm thinking more and more that the latecomers to the party have had it - I wouldn't want to be holding those shares now imo.
I can’t understand all the selling, surely there is now no profit to be made until we rise higher. We’ve been stuck at these levels for weeks.
Hahaha
Not sure whether the spice girls would add much spice these days.
Old spice maybe !!!
Perhaps we could pay the spice girls to advertise the test in the adverts halfway through corrie and emmerdale i think it would have more impact
First half revenue £63m
of which June revenue £22.5m
"...Novacyt expects significant ongoing demand for COVID-19 testing well into 2021..."
Second half revenue say minimum of 22.5 x 6 = £135m
Total revenue this year expected 63 +135 = £198m ?
On a 3 x revenue valuation gives a sp of £8.36. I guess the market just doesn't think those kinds of revenue streams are sustainable.
The government isn't going to order 5bn worth. Its a framework.
I wonder if the ramping up of the spare capacity is in anticipation of the chunk of the government 5bn order we're likely to get.
had been thinking below £20 million and good to see £22million
these buyers currently buying also look pleased with today s news
like how buying currently building again here and Paris
Matt2521
if you look at my posts 25 million and a good rise be seen
really pleased to see 22,5 million today
another strong month
well done to ncyt
ak,
If we have spare capacity in manufacturing, would that indicate that sales of COVID H-T have not taken off as expected?
(1536 tests per kit). I think its early days yet, and I would be very surprised GM was disappointed with sales of this kit.
@S4KSecurity what were your estimates for June? I think everyone that follows this company and done the research would have expected £40m+ in revenues. You say "upward trend for the sales still continues", but if anything June is downward!
With testing globally ramping up - not sure how NCYT only reported £22.5m. Strange no mention of orders this time either. Usually it's been orders for, and contracted to deliver. This was £80m last month.
"The Company remains well positioned to address the global need for COVID-19 testing, with its test being sold worldwide. It also has sufficient manufacturing capacity, raw materials and finished goods to meet the expected demand, having orchestrated a significant scale-up of operations during the half year. "
Can only read between the lines but i think that indicates we have spare capacity in manufacturing.
I'm also unsure how the deal with PHE/NHS gets reported. Does the June figure contain any of that amount or is the June figure on it's own merit.
The demand for the kits is huge, once the supply is increased so will revenue... massively.
Matt whilst you focus on the estimates vs actuals, thats all they are estimates. Fact of the matter is they are still a significant increase on previous periods and the upward trend for the sales still continues. The issue is not demand for the kits as covid is real, the issue is manufacturing. With revenues being generated it is a matter of time before the manufacturing process steps up, either by means of JV or by increasing facilities. Either way we are making a profit, in an industry that is highly highly needed, creating a product to aid the globe wide pandemic.... ITS UP FROM HERE AND WILL BE FOR A WHILE. expect talks of divi, jv, ipo etc. Keyword TRANSFORMATIONAL. NO RAMPING - 100% BASED ON NEWS
Anyone else want to share thoughts on this? I see suspicious bumping/creating of other ramping posts that seems to focus 900% sales growth while June trend is the concern here.
I'm not surprised by the market reaction here. June sales is underwhelming and I'm not sure why its so low. Either they failed to sell all 10m capacity (strange as Roche says they cant make tests quick enough) or pricing is a disaster at <£3! So even worse than May at my estimated £5.5 level.
Anyways, was wondering what ShaunP though of it as I always considered his spreadsheet quite conservative, and these June numbers came below that.