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Updated Events pipeline:
WHO approval (Tick)
Glaxo Smith Kline & AstraZeneca deal (Tick)
US sales update
Thai sales update
France sales update
UK sales update
WHO sales update
UK testing capacity increase (Tick) 30k by May
News on collaboration with Optigene (5>20 min test)
Further scaling up of manufacturing
Secure further raw materials
Release of Antibody test (long shot)
Joint Venture, License agreement or take over
If COVID is resolved quicker than forecast (12>18m) this would reduce Novacyts value.
This seems unlikely with second waves of cases in China and Korea. Governments are going to want to test key workers and travelers for a while and will want access to supplies should it occur.
Novacyt also has some lasting value outside of COVID as its demonstrated ability to produce high quality corona virus test kit quickly.
We are forecast to suffer from Conora virus's at a higher rate in future!! This being the 7th (china / world needs to sort out animal welfare). Novacyt will be well positioned to react to future viruses. Though their value you quickly drop a period prior to virus being defeated. When is the key question lol
Risk 1: Not able to procure enough materials
Acton: Global suppliers are ramping up production. Have enough to make £180m worth of kits. Signing up with larger partners may help their buying power.
Risk 2: Not able to ramp up manufacturing sufficiently
Acton: Have signed up 2 manufacturers plus look to add 3rd. Own site is running at 100%.
Should add more sites and maybe licence out tech.
Risk 3: Faster or cheaper test released
Acton: Basingstoke hospital in partnership with Optigene and Novacyt released a 5>20 min test. Novacyts current test takes 60>90 mins. This new method uses Novacyts test but on equipment usually used in veterinary. This equipment is faster than most units used for humans!!
The 5>20 min test could cement Novacyts place as number one supplier in the world.
. They will sell as many products as they can make
. They are adapting an Antibody norovirus for COVID. If successful they would be servicing both parts of the pie.
Although the share price has risen by 25 times since Jan it still has scope to rise in multiples. The share price will react to the ability of company to increase capacity, supplies and in line with global testing strategies. The share price does swing violently up and down, don't worry about that, pay attention to the RNS statements (Share holder updates). As long as these contain good news and sales increase the share price will take care of itself. Company usually provides updates every 10 days at 7:00am on a Monday or Friday. These updated will become less frequent as news cycle slows and confidence in company continues to increase.
This is not gambling, I always deeply research businesses i invest in and never gamble. Please go away, you smell of a desperate troll. Take care with the short
Novacyt supply to 80 countries. Product has been approved by EU, US, UK and this evening The World Health Organisation (WHO).
Novacyt and Roche are only two companies in world approved by WHO.
They have previously made kits for SARS-1, Ebola and MERS.
There are two types of tests:
Antigen - checks if you HAVE COVID
Antibody - checks if you HAD COVID
Novacyt were quickly able to adapt their SARS-1 test to test for COVID-19 (also known as SARS-2).
Novacyt's Antigen test is 100% accurate (will attach reports)
Is quickest Antigen test at 60>90 mins
And apparently the Gold Standard.
The Antibody tests are about 50% accurate and therefore can not be used. I read they are about 3 months away.
UK has looked at 150 Antibody tests and tested 9 which failed.
Antibody tests can take up to 28 days after infection for test to work.
Antigen tests will work around a day after infection.
Both tests are needed. Antigen to immediately diagnose, trace case contacts and regularly test key workers. Plus when enough supply is available test in the community.
Working Antibody test may be available in 3 months and would be used to check if we have immunity (if science shows we can build immunity) .
Billions of tests are needed world wide. The UK could easily use 30m Antigen tests.
Novacyt test is run on PCR testing equipment that is common throughout labs world wide.
Novacyt are currently valued at £146m. Start of Jan they were valued £9.7m.
Novacyt is one of three companies supplying UK, Roche ($275b) and likely Thermo Fisher ($120b).
Not that a comparison should be made against their businesses or valuations. Just highlights what a mino they are and how well they are doing.
Last year sales were of £14.5m.
This year have sold £17. 8m COVID tests and currently have capacity to sell approx £40m a month.
Hold enough materials to sell approx £180m of tests.
Could easily have sales of £300m (approx £220 booked) which would equate to around £1.5b value.
If they can double capacity (up by x20 since Feb) they could be valued at £3b.
A x5 to x20 return on investment is possible within 3>9 months.
They will likely announce they have secured more stock in next company announcement.
They have increased company capacity from 200,000 tests a month to 4m.
They have signed manufacturing agreements in America and UK. It is anticipated they will sign a further UK agreements with Glaxo Smith Kline and AstraZeneca (as mentioned by Mat Han**** hinted).
Novacyt - Southampton
Yourgene - UK Manchester (in production)
Second UK manufacturer - Discussions
BioType Diagnostic GmbH (BioType) - Germany (production?)
Unknown US - production?
If COVID is resolved quicker than forecast (12>18m) this would reduce
Seems that Novacyt hasn't managed to develop a test for rampers, shorters and downright moaners just yet.
france overture at 3.15
Nobody is stopping you from gambling. But please respect others.
Not really gambling is it?..it's called buying into a company that has huge demand for their product. You're just a bitter idiot to even waste 5 seconds of your life on here trying to 'help' us poor investors..get a grip ffs
Pilgrim - I don’t see any investors here mate, just pure gamblers. Aim is investing? Made me laugh
There we go, now you have let it slip you definitely don't hold. Jealousy is an awful trait. Filter time and report for you. Lets get back to ncyt
jealousy is not a great trait valuefinder...just saying
In fact silver, and ggg, u hope some of these guys here sell their shares to idiots like you and leave you holding while the bubble bursts
As I wouldn't post only 5 times here now and all post being negative. Who would talk down their own holding or troll? I am the worst for sharing facts and info. Ok chump change. Jealous that I have been holding for days sorry weeks?
Ggg- joe do you know I’m not holding? You’re the worst of them to be honest. You haven’t stopped ramping this for days now.
I've managed to increase sipp & isa from about 9k to 36k since January
Agree to as France always leads the way and you can see the order book of what orders are on. Heavy on buy side and 6 to 1. I also use level 2 to see the order book here.
I get it, it’s exciting, and some people have made a lot of money here. And I hope plenty make more. But feet on the ground pls, the share has gone from 6p to nearly £3. There is a ceiling to everything, and I just hope people don’t put their hard earned cash they can’t afford to lose here. Buy by all means, but only if you’re prepared to lose some/all of it.....Rule number 1 in gambling ;)
I find your 3 negative posts and only post on NCYT as unbelievable valuefinder but I guess you always get jealousy when not holding
Agree with you Aberoily. I have found it a useful indication of the opening price and like any sp at any moment it can certainly go up or down in price. I do not therefore consider this as ramping.....it is simply stating a calculation based statistic.
france down to 3.25
Agree. A lot of naivety around, I even saw someone talking about £100 a share! Worst culprit is that pineapple idiot and that adhd silver guy. We've good reason to be very optimistic but some of the mindless ramping is nauseating!
We know valuefinder but it is a good early indicator that's all. It also helps steady the nerves before the opening bell for those that are heavily in here. GLA
Boys, seriously, stop ramping. It’s a theoretical opening price, not a real bid/offer. It may or may not open at that price, or it may drop as soon as it opens. Stop ramping! Unbelievable. Feel sorry for gullible folks being drawn into this with comments of sky high stock price.
Looks like another good day, and 30 mins till open ... brill!
France 3.33 now wow wow !
Preemptive buys ready for next week sales update