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Dear Termmunchkin,
I am a LTH and I have been adding significant parcels along the way in addition to top ups, some connections have significantly more capacity to add however, than I. Currently I’m at point where I need some direction change and do not wish to increase exposure further until I see that. I have no intention of selling and await H1 outcome in a few weeks to gain further specifics regarding trade numbers. Also the full financials in April May would be of interest to have clarity on ex U.K. sales
tech - you are right, they have been exceptional & it has been an exceptional period but it is worth pointing out how other businesses handle SP volatility as it helps build the SH base that best suits the business. People talk about "becoming mid cap", this stuff about what the market looks for in terms predictability from their investment is background on what could be done & leads to thinking how NCYT would structure their business going forward in terms of production, sales, by product, client, perhaps sectors, geography, acquisition & growth strategy while safeguarding their innovative R&D skills
To respond to rcdm's point about what NCYT could have to offer to reduce share volatility,
There would be less volatility if the market had more information to go on to predict how sales are going. It would be helpful to have a plan, in mid & short term and the non confidential information about business development as we go along even in general terms - We plan to be able to build x instruments, supply the world with x or y etc so at least a measure could be built up. The company has referred to 150 countries, some information concerning Romanian sales came to light on twitter yesterday, but we have no basis to estimate volumes of sales & growth so
collectively we have to "walk the plank" with 40-50% price drops between rerates. This situation does not help the company in managing its shareholder support, including IIs, as there is an incentive to buy & sell or short because of the price undulations we can expect without rerating RNSs.
We don't rns contracts / orders less than 2bn, anything else is small fry
Try2buy, if that’s the case surely the company would have RNS’d the extension.
I agree with Shearclass's view with a twist.
Confidence in the underlying SP value would not need to hinge from the financial & trading updates if there was more evidence of what sales values might be from track record, production information or comments. I have had to remove a line in my revenue forecast model for instrument sales based on negotiations being underway although we all could be fairly certain NCYT instruments have a market (if they were not taken up by the DHSC)! I estimate figures for reagent sales as my YE2020 revenue model came close to the YE update figures but estimating the other non DHSC revenue to the 150 countries is unreliable.
I've convinced myself that there will be an RNS on Monday 29 March & not before as the 28 September contract has a maximum limit on its extension of 6 months up on 28 March & the other key date on 28 Jan neatly falling the day before our 29 Jan RNS.
Reading twitter, it seems like NCYT will only be releasing an RNS when they have a video to go with it. Just a standard one would do for me!
Being frank, the recovery in December after the vaccine wobble was strong. What has proved to be a huge unsolved headache was the bumbling over the end of January announcement. It wasnt perceived as a positive and thus the market and all its confidece eroded itself down to pitiful values.
Whilst I am the eternal optimist, I do feel this weekly walkdown in price is beyond acceptable based on the values being pumped out. I do think NCYT have alot to offer, but this slide needs to stop, its laughable and the longer the wait is for support to prevent disgruntled share holders becoming more frustrated the more the interest in the investment prospects of the company will dwindle.
Poor show since late January we have slide down past 11/10/9/8/7 merrily, but 650 is a floor. Based on what?
Time for GM to reset the tone and make this investible again. Get a grip of it please or people will just simply exit what has now become a complete embarassment of a capitulation.
And the first fine specimen on the "I deserved an Rns on my own because I'm worth it"
The SUCCESSFUL Queen Mary trial
Successful completion of clinical trial with Queen Mary University of London
Further to the announcement on 16 November 2020, Queen Mary University of London (QMUL) has completed the clinical trial using the Company's rapid testing platforms for COVID-19 in care homes. Upon completion, over 4,500 samples and subsequent results have been recorded. The data analysis is now underway, and the results are expected to be reported in H2 2021.
Just look at the style the substance the walk down the catwalk he/she/it reads fabulously and just to be assisted by the milk tray handsome Jack Tayler.
Observation should have showed on own has star quality.
Right now NCYT are in the same phase as they were from June - early September last year when it fell off the highs of £5 and all the way back to £2.20 at one stage. It then slowly worked it way back up before the fireworks started with the half year financials. At present the share price is heading back to the long term support line that is sat on for those 3 months last year. This sits at £5.50 and it feels inevitable that the price will get back there unless there is a material contract RNS. There could also be turbulence from Vatel, who have over 1m shares unlocking at the end of March. Once financials are released in June I suspect a re-rate will occur as the value becomes blatant again to all and sundry.
Well with the extensive IP they own 550 products and everything else built up over years, it’s work in genome sequencing etc, the company has to be worth something on top of its cash pile as previously discussed.
We currently have market cap in line with that of a fire sale, maybe market is right, business is worth next to Fck all after all that’s what we are seeing currently.
Sentiment however is changing, its so oversold now it’s ridiculous
GLA
I am not kidding that a cash pile this size offers a safety net that a company without this cash pile simply doesn't have, no. This can be driven as low as say three times cash but there's a limit to how low it's possible to force it down. Okay, that floor probably is a bit lower than 650 but I don't want to be a debbie downer and I don't think it will go much lower apart from the odd tree shake.
I'll be setting my stop losses accordingly then HarChris. - Your not kidding are you?
You can be almost certain that any drop into the mid 660s is unsustainable and will recover quickly.
The good thing here is there really is a limit to how low this can go with the enormous cash pile building up, however poor sentiment is. We are at or around that floor.
Christ junior give it a ****ing rest, clearly shouldn't be investing if you don't know how the market works.
Mean while rns over at tesco sold another apple and pint of milk
Junior I can't answer that now if this helps a snippet from the interim report you referenced in your previous post(for clarity I wish the company every success but don't hold)
· Revenue increased significantly to £7.69m (2019: £1.55m) predominantly due to COVID-19 related activities;
· Like-for-like revenue growth (excluding Covid-19 related contracts) increased by 111.6% to £3.28m (2019: £1.55m);
· Gross profit margin increased to 40.1% (2019: 39.4%);
· Operating loss before exceptional items of £0.06m (2019: loss of £0.75m); and
· Profit after tax of £0.14m (2019: loss of £0.78m
So in a year their revenues are less than we make in a week and their gross profit margin is half ours, !!!! as scardie cat pointed out earlier (good post) the markets are as sizzle rascal would say "bonkers"
I see the board is already filled with threads promoting other stocks.
Guess if Novacyt kept putting out RNS such as:-
Novacyt just signed partner deal with Boots to offer its tests in all stores
Novacyt just signed partner deal with Wren Healthcare to offer tests
Novacyt....
It would pump the SP after all it works elsewhere
Ultimately it comes down to Delivery. Well one would hope so. Would be interested to see where Abingdon SP goes after just about breaking even on £7m of sales for the year, probably go up knowing this market
I guess where others Hype and don’t deliver maybe it is time for us to Hype and deliver? There’s a thought.
Good Luck all anyhow
Yes....so why has the share price haved? And why has the company watched it happen?
If you only read this once or twice give yourself 30 mins and read it again it's fantabulous (please don't remove largest word for me today)
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/research-and-development-update-7iu0u64rk16dtin.html