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With the prolonged dispute it best to have positivity. Another day another 200k.
I am very happy with the business performance. Lets not lose sight of the great things being achieved here, this is a world class Diagnostics business delivering multi million pound world wide sales!!!
It is the Share price performance that is disappointing, that is all. However, as I say this will change shortly, positive sentiment will return and private investors and funds will start buying again, likewise posts here will increase as new investors take positions.
The share price is depressed but non of the issues are insurmountable they are being resolved. Not sure how long is left on the ADR talks regarding the dispute but if it is within the 120 days set period, which i suspect is the case, then we will likely get an update before the end of this month, so not long to go now.
Anyhow, its onwards and upwards from here. I'm Remaining positive here as always
200k a day is not as nice as 400k a day but now looks to be the revenue base line figure.
I still feel that an update would have been appropriate especially with the DHSC dispute still ongoing. A more optimistic picture of the next few months would have led to a more comfortable time. Having said that the share price is rising. And more cash being banked.
So just as well we are keeping isolation rules from USA then.....until 4am tomorrow anyway!!!!
Thanks for your kind comments although, some i think would rather i shut up at times :) I admit I can get a bit carried away but like to keep it positive. This is such a heck of a business its hard not to....
Meanwhile... just read that the US State Florida is having serious Covid issues. Infections and Hospital rates rising, the covid wave hitting Florida is higher than its ever been to date.
See graph compliments of Alexthemuss on Twitter:-
Various news agencies reporting including CBS who are obviously right on the scene:-
"Florida on Friday reported 21,683 new cases of COVID-19 — the most infections in a single day since the start of the pandemic"
That a 50% increase in a week
Population of Florida is circa 19m so call it a third of the size of the UK and Covid spreading at a rapid rate.
According to Tracker the vaccination rate in Florida as at Friday stands at 48.9% so nearly half are vaccinated so it looks on the face of it this is down to a new variant.
Independent did feature an article on Wednesday saying that a new variant from Colombia B.1.621 was responsible for this massive increase:-
The variant has gained traction moving up from South Florida as a result of the movement of people:-
"Miami serves as a “gateway” to Latin America, and there’s a lot of international travel between Colombia and Florida"
I guess this comes back to the point we were discussing the other day. If the worldwide vaccination rates don't climb high enough, will could end up with pockets around the world where covid spreads and constantly mutates and with international travel the new variants ultimately end up here.
We need to stay ahead of this and our government stop making cavalier choices regarding not adequately testing certain international arrivals - its not that difficult.
Re Exmex post with article on Nova working with Astra on trialling saliva test -
You would hope that with the relationship the Government has with Astra following the success of the vaccine and Boris being an absolute ambassador for Astra, someone in the Government must be aware of this trial and its success.
During Astra's negotiations with the Gov and the question come up re being able to maintain supply of the vaccine during rollout and what controls Astra would have in place to ensure little interruption to supply such as testing of their own workforce - I am sure that Astra would have I hope mentioned/promoted the success of the 75000 tests carried out using the saliva test and the preference by their workforce to have the saliva test V swab test.
So you would hope one of the decision makers in the Government would say if it's good enough for Astra it's good enough for us! Fingers crossed.
Hello Porky and to all who are accused of ramping the share due to your positive opinions. I hav e calculated that the time and effort you put into researching the information you unselfishly bring to this board would,I imagine, far out weigh any income for "ramping the share". If one were to claim a payment for the work you do by now I'm sure it would up to more than the value of your investment!!!
Totally agree something like that would give us a real boost.
Through the existing network the Saliva Tests should do well once those can start shipping. We should get an update on the CE validation status of that product line anytime soon.
Winterplex is another biggie, the position here as we start to prepare for the flu season and also stateside could seriously add to the numbers. I only learnt the other day that Winterplex is constantly updated due to the changes in the flu virus. Makes sense really, they have to keep updating the flu vaccines due to the latest flu strains hence have to keep updating Winterplex in the same way. This means that you can't sit on old stock you have to order in new batches as each season takes hold.
As such if we have a bad flu season then you can end up with a fairly rapid rush to buy product.
Good job the NHS framework deal is in place as it means Hospitals can just order from the reps directly according to demand and don't need to go through a formal tender process each time.
We need that big contract win for novacyt's winterplex. This would be a game changer. The saliva LFT for schools / private sector / home use would be very massive.
Very kind of you to say and i equally value your input.
I can 100% guarantee I'm not in anyway paid to post. During lock down, I started researching the company further, initially for a family office I do some work periodically for, who also invest here. Since then, i can't deny I have become somewhat obsessed but its my own time and I share stuff as I find it, after all, I'm trying to build a significant investment position here and as i have previously said, as such, i have a vested interest in the stock doing well.
Meanwhile, just to add further to earlier comments about longevity of the business and the long term effects of Covid and why it will ultimately be seen as a general ongoing diagnostics sector. Guardian tonight write the following article:-
Disease will circulate alongside flu and other seasonal viruses and become part of accepted winter illness
"Britain faces the prospect of thousands of annual Covid deaths for years to come, scientists have warned.
They say waves of cases are likely to sweep the country every winter as Covid-19 joins other seasonal viruses, including influenza, in taking its toll of elderly and infirm people. Every year, as cold weather forces people indoors, virus transmission will increase, case numbers will rise, and some of these will result in deaths.
The warning comes as Covid case numbers look likely to stabilise through the summer, but with researchers saying incidence could rise again in autumn as vaccination rates falter and schools return. This could lead to a fourth wave this winter – one that could become an annual occurrence for years to come."
This is a fairly simplistic view but I believe a realistic overview of the situation. Novacyt as a business will continue to support with diagnostics technologies, assays and other tests. It will be a continual driver of revenues for many years to come and the business will be properly rated as an ongoing diagnostics concern including this vertical.
Currently we are on a PE Ratio of under X 1.7 v Peer Average of X 15 to X 30 as such we just need to sit back until ultimately we are rated correctly.
Chrisd2 are you on twitter
While I still believe that you are some how sponsored to promote this share, you do a grand job and more often than not you make a lot of sense. (£54 excluded) Your comments on long Covid and its long term ability to mutate and infect globally are spot on imo. Your comments re GM are helpful too. I also agree that Graham has done an extremely good job, though he had stumbled somewhat over the past 6 months as the company grew rapidly and has outgrown his commercial skills. It happens to us all and as I suggested a few days ago, happened to me a few years ago following leading a successful main market IPO. His retirement, I believe, was pre planned and most certainly his own decision. He is smart enough to realise that we needed a more commercial leader. Nothing wrong with that.
Keep up the good work. Your research is refreshing and saves many investors time. Please keep adding shares....
I think the biggest issue it the dispute, unfortunately a big black cloud hanging over the business, don't buy the longevity argument, when you consider the likes of Sourcebio International are rated at a much higher multiple and with far less cash at the bank, their longevity is not being scrutinised. Resolve the dispute and NCYT shall rerate immediately, the new CEO hopefully the icing on the cake.
Something perhaps new? OEM opportunities being pushed by Primerdesign.
‘My posts can often be perceived as rampy’......
The following document takes some digesting but it’s a thought-provoking document prepared by a group of academics on the possible trajectories for the long-term evolution of SARS-CoV-2.
This document was made available by Aris Katzourakis who is a Professor of Evolution and Genomics at Oxford, if you are invested here its worth reading.
It’s a very sobering document. Now I don’t want to create undue fear here, we have a solid vaccine program, and we can adjust to live with this virus but its not going away anytime soon and it will mutate.
The harsh facts are, in my opinion, that unfortunately the rest of the world won’t be able to vaccinate to a high enough level, there will be regions of the world with low vaccination rates and low social responsibility that provide a hot bed for future mutations.
See fully vaccinated figures here. Specifically, the bottom half of the table: -
Now, I’m not convinced by the herd immunity argument either. In simplistic terms I see Covid like a nasty version of a flu virus that will keep changing and we will need to keep testing and genomic mapping to ensure we stay on top of it on an ongoing basis, it won’t just vanish.
In terms of Novacyt, I believe that what we will see is, despite the business diversifying into other diagnostics verticals, it has both the R&D capabilities and cash reserves to do so, the work within this covid vertical will continue to be essential and dominant for years to come. The market will ultimately view it as mainstream diagnostics and a respectable PE Ratio to match. Its just not a business to easily replicate and value will continue to build.
Obviously, despite my confidence that Novacyt and the diagnostics sector will boom, and financial rewards will be substantial as a result. Equally, I don’t want to be the richest person in the graveyard either. I have two children, one at university and one going soon so I do fear for future generations.
We must be sensible, take this virus seriously and back businesses and innovations that can help us stay ahead. Concerning times.
As most regular forum readers know, I remain incredibly bullish regarding this business. I am so bullish that my posts can often be perceived as rampy, and I have even been accused of being a paid poster to hype the business.
The reality is that I’m just an investor that seeks out asset Situations and High growth Opportunities where I consider the share price is below its underlying value, its that simple. With Novacyt we have a real gem here and I can’t help but feel passionate about it’s future. I’m trying hard not to ramp here but by God this company really is phenomenal, and I genuinely think it’s the investment opportunity of a lifetime.
I appreciate it doesn’t feel like this now with the SP on the floor and my £54 SP predictions currently look both ridiculous and unattainable with the SP at this level, but investors need to remember that this is an investment journey we are on, its not yet at the destination and it will get there.
It takes time to build a business and scale and this business is doing an amazing job at that, its R&D capabilities through to product launch to distribution network are world class likewise its Bioinformatics capabilities are in a totally different league to anything else in the market. The company also has exponential growth potential like no other.
The business is yet to be rated properly because its longevity is yet to be proven. Its further hampered by a dispute, it’s had internal board changes and hampered by perception that it’s a one trick covid play and sentiment towards investing here is at rock bottom. But non of this is insurmountable. As these aspects change the SP will start to recover back on its journey.
It’s difficult to appreciate this having taken such a beating recently with the SP decline but I’m treating this as a key investment buying opportunity period. Some think I’m totally bonkers buying and adding to my holding, but may God strike me down if i'm not being honest here, all my buys are 100% genuine, I’m not trading buying and selling this stock. In fact some have been ill timed purchases, i have added in the morning and the SP has dropped in the afternoon!! i have brought at highs and lows but I'm not concerned with daily price fluctuations, I am genuinely accumulating a long term share holding and I intend to keep adding as funds permit. Once the SP is back towards the £10 level shareholders will start to feel a lot more positive about their investments here and anything under £ 10 is going to look cheap!!
For me I can’t find or see a better investment opportunity in the market than Novacyt and that's why i continue to add and discuss my findings here as i have a vested interest in the business continuing to do well .
Good Luck to all, the best of times for this stock is yet to come, I remain absolutely convinced. Now, back to further research and fact finding….