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@Hillseeker
Likewise, value your input, appreciated.
In addition, stating the obvious but Antigen LFT out before close on Wednesday? Product push via network, revenues expected to be "Significant" will add to the revenue line. Then we have the 2nd gen Antibody test (identify Vaccine from natural protection) going line from the Q3 again adding to the revenue line and we are not factoring ANY sales in for Novacyt Inc stateside and frankly with the new product roll outs, FDA validated products can be shipped immediately.
To say the forward revenues are conservative is an understatement.
I was surprised that the SP didn't significantly rally on Tuesday, I think the fact that shorts moved in on a small rise and volumes were low, the bear raid worked. Average retail doesn't really understand the figures before them. Applying those figures to the PE ratio that EKF Diagnostics is on our SP would be £ 7+ now. Its just how it is.
However, i believe it's about to change... £ 239m mcap on those figures remains totally farcical whichever way you dice it...
@ neilrich, Oriens, B2HS2L, Porky
Some great comments on this thread – totally agree, the £100m is BS as Neil puts it.
They have basically said:
Q1 = 10m x 3 = 30m
Q2 = 7m x 3 = 21m
Total for H1 = 51
Double as a guestimate for whole year = 51m x 2 = 102m
Then they’ve said, Let’s round it down (we don’t want to be too optimistic) and call it £100m.
But this is ridiculously cautious. They’ve only included private and international sales, no NHS and zero growth.
We have PCR (HT and Promate), Antingen test (by the end of this month!) and an Antibody test (plus the new antibody test to differentiate for natural immunity/vaccine immunity in Q3), so have all bases covered, whichever way the government blows on its containment strategy, travel and other restrictions.
Travel has not taken off yet. As I said prior to results, I thought Q2 would be slightly down on Q1, as Q1 included UNICEF (10m) – so actually taking UNICEF out, sales have increased from 20m to 21m, despite the virus rate dropping. Q3 and Q4 private sales have got to be higher as the virus rate increases again and summer hols result in more travel.
Then we are bound to get something from the framework, especially going into winter. They will run out of Promate at some point, especially with this new surge. Either hospitals are going to be catching up with routine surgery or they are going to overwhelmed with covid cases. Either way, more testing!
And then there’s long covid tests, the list is endless. It is difficult to quantify how much but, unless GM has poked DHSC with a sh.tty stick, DHSC/NHS are going to want our tests.
SNPsig not really mentioned either. This also needs adding in.
We sold 10m last year to US without a sales force. Clearly, they will be focused on recruiting/building and training a team for Novacyt US Inc., but you would hope that one eye would simultaneously be kept on increasing sales. (Incidentally, the idea of having a subsidiary state side with US in the name is a playing a blinder.)
… and, of course, if we resolve the dispute, we have up to another 32m immediately to add in for Q1
So yes, good to be cautious, so that we can celebrate when the figure goes up – but £100m? Come on, our company’s value is based on forward earning potential – be a little braver with your forecasts GM
B2h... yep amercian to could happen, we all know the yanks like to be top dog at everything .....
Oriens, -
The other option is that this amount of Federal money being made available for testing will trigger a US pharma to consider buying NCYT.
Novacyt's SNPsig system for Genomic sequencing is a candidate for the best (and fastest) technology for Global Surveillance. - Haven't seen a (USA) competitors announce a new system that competes on time to complete tests, and we have the Bioinformatics Surveillance Report showing very high levels of detection of VoC's etc:
https://twitter.com/NovacytGroup/status/1407380082990239755/photo/1
Even less reason to be out of this, if the above causes an offer to be made.
British and French govnt policy might interfere with a takeover of such a company as Novacyt.
@kaeren,
US focus is good. I just hope that the BoD realise how wrong the French listing is for us and be done with it.
It has not done us any good whatsoever. Move on!
MS
Oriens, - I know where your coming from, but for me NCYT have to find a US partner / acquisition to gain access to a small part of these funds.
I meant let's hope he won't be like trump....lol
B2h....no doubt they have so much cash to chuck at this, but will an English company get a look in.....usa protectionism was a major factor under Trump.. Will Biden be any different? Let's hope not!
Perhaps the focus was too much on the Uk and I doubt G.M will fall foul of that again. They had to gear up production , I am more confident now that we will start to see more information re U.S , change of focus see Rns targeted geographic regions is mentioned numerous times.
Oriens1
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1319/text
Subtitle E—Testing
2401/2/3/4
Over $50 Bil in testing set to be appropriated in early Nov 2021.
Yes we did hear a US update due but did not appear.
The above amount to be signed off by Biden currently scheduled for Nov this year.
Best the sales teams are ready before then!
"Development of LFT to detect and differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies, launch expected Q3 2021"
To differentiate between natural and vaccine antibodies will be massive for the vaccine developers......cha-ching
Porky - I'm sure there is also a massive push on to try and deliver the Antibody LFT as soon as possible in Q3.
RNS April 23rd
"Development of LFT to detect and differentiate between SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies, launch expected Q3 2021"
B2h.....definitely and the new lft is going to be a very big game changer! However on us news, I'm not holding my breath, we were told a year ago by rns a update will be coming, and we are still waiting! Maybe it's just a very difficult market to crack...
@neilrich3
Highly likely, lets face it we know (proven) that GM does not do Hype, if anything he under estimates to ensure they over deliver, that is his style.
The LFT product is going to add "Significant" additional revenues so once released broker forecasts will be updated again. All of the databases will soon be updated with the confirmed financials.
The expansion stateside with the creation of Novacyt Inc is just perfect. Now that coupled with a Nasdaq listing, can you imagine it....
The game is still in play here, as i say business great, share price sh@t BUT the share price will ultimately catch up with the business fundamental values.
Finally, the H1 statement will be out in just a few weeks time. He has already confirmed that they invoiced £ 88.4m in the first five months, so the H1 will likely come in at £100m so they are not going to do zero sales in H2 are they!!!
For comparison purposes the H1 last year was:-
Revenue £63.3 m
EBITDA £ 44 m
Cash at Bank £ 18 m SHARE PRICE £ 3.20
So its fairly safe to assume that if they turn in £100m on similar margins that's an increase of 50% on last year BUT no debt and cash at bank to add of about £ 130m - well that's a £6 share price based on our crappy current valuation metric and that's without the LFT product sales and the new US division.
Only way is up from here frankly, I remain very positive
Pork's
Oriens1
There are certain news items that crop up unannounced from NCYT occasionally, - not many but some.
Presently we await
1 DHSC dispute settlement (not wise to assume this is medium / long term problem)
2 Merger / Acquisition
3 FDA approvals, - "Expansion underway in US market, with establishment of Novacyt US Inc and appointment of a US General Manager, with up to 10 additional hires expected in H2 2021"
But NOT
New products released to market
WWTBOOTWTH...(When These Happen), - then we'll know who chose most wisely.
I think that the revenue guidance for £100m this year is BS, although meant to be worst case scenario, once you add back the DHSC and include the Antigen LFT about to be released, the figure is more likely to be in the region of £150m-£200m.
I reckon the best of this year will come Qtr 3 - 4 or mid H2 to get back to the £10+ range......think about it...more products, more sales reps, more end user distribution points and the world wants to open....it's won't happen without diagnostic companies like NCYT....Qtr 3-4 2022 = £22+ range..... ;-)....I feel my estimates are conservative.
Can't believe shearclass sold out! After having a go at me.. when I said the dhsc needs to be sorted.
First sign of sp not going up he bails out.....
@kitzie
I do hope you are correct. Yesterday we saw LTH's bail out. We have all been skinned alive, and it is painful. All common sense, due diligence, own research whatever you want to call it means nothing. Too deep in this to throw away a 6 figure sum. If it gets back to nearly a tenner I will be very happy, as it is I am exhausted by it all. As I say, good luck to us all, we do deserve an uplift from where it is today. Not expecting £54 per share, but as I say £10 will hit my spot lovely.
I disgree Jgcw,
Remember Europe and the world are looking for a home use LFT that will replace the dodgy Innova test....anything that can prevent false negatives (and positives) is a bonus.....as a first screen measure, LFTs are crucial for the world to stay open.....I'm sure the contracts will start rolling once it comes out.
GM launches LFT for home use and we enjoy a 2% increase in the SP, short lived for several hours.......sick to death of this not increasing to fair value based on the latest information. Here is good luck to One & All we have waited and waited, just hope it is very soon the crisis/ dispute is concluded in our favour.
Something big on the cards, GM has kept that Ace up his sleeve, I'm predicting the Antigen LFT, however no ordinary test, I think that NCYT likely to have reinvented the wheel, a test that blows all the competition out of the water.