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@Matt,
Based on the RNS posted on Monday, we should see the glass half filled...
If you look at previous RNS on Covid updates:
"As of 1 June 2020, sales of the Primerdesign COVID-19 test are €45 million (£40 million). "
That €45 million is a cumulative figure for 4 months (from Feb to May as first sales are reported in Feb).
So €25.4 million is a good performance.
If the company were to continue like this for the second half that would make an additional €150 million.
So that would bring yearly sales to €220-€230 million
But the glass will be too small and we'll need a bigger one:
"Given the visibility of orders, extended contracts and the launch of new COVID-19 related products, the Company anticipates revenue for the second half of the year to be greater than the first half of the year and margins to be at least at a similar level. "
So we're talking +€250 million sales ....
And this is for existing products...
"Novacyt ... is investing to address unmet needs in the market."
"Novacyt expects to provide an update on its investment in R&D to support continued growth, including a number of new products and innovations to be launched in the near future."
When you know how good they are at anticipating needs, innovating, well simply at finding solutions you can expect good news in this area in the coming months (saliva tests, POC solutions, ... ). To me POC is the future.
I would bet that they will acquire a company with the cash in bank like they smartly did with PrimerDesign for around €13 million if I remember well. The RNS opens the door to an acquisition too:
"As a result, there is expected to be greater cash generation in the second half of the year and the Company is reviewing its capital allocation policy to enhance and accelerate long-term value creation through its three-pillar strategy of organic, R&D and acquisitive growth."
@Jimboooo
That's right on the money. Investors have been burned on AIM so many times over the years.
At some point they see they're holding a 50p position on a stock that was worth 3p a few months ago and they get worried about it being a pump n dump job.
I get that and respect it, but ultimately it's how great companies start too. Take 20 of these Covid stocks and one or two will genuinely make the cash and grow. Rest will take investors money, pay a bunch of staff and bonuses then slowly die off.
I played in a bunch of these, and left NCYT around the 400s for the same reason. It was always going to be a case of finding the stock that actually made stupid amounts of cash and would grow month on month for the rest of the year AND show the nous to invest in a future away from Covid.
I think this is it. I'm not a loyalist, but I can't see anything else listed on AIM close to NCYT right now.
Companies on AIM do placings for less than 1 million pounds.
Think about that.
Hooking up with dodgy nomad/brokers to pull off sub 1 mill placings to get to move the business forward.
NCYT's on track, debt free, to pull in 10's of millions a month. A month.
It's a dream for these guys. They're a decade ahead of where they imagined and all the clever ideas they always wanted to get into can now get realised. Ride the train for 2020 at least, see where it goes. Try not to let the hedge fund and MM guys get you too down in the meantime. They're here to make cash too. They need to buy low sell high just like us. Difference is they're able to move the market to make that happen while we need to be patient to get our chance.
Exactly. June revenue and forward sold orders are two seperate things. They may have a bunch of debtors with generous payment terms considering the pandemic. We wont know any of this until sighted on the SOFP. I am not concerned with current sales but with what is to come. It will only get better and thats why i am invested. They are front runners, working with AZ, existing relationship and contract with PHE. What more signs do people need. Buy when others doubt and are fearful.
Issue is if covid disappeared tomorrow and 90% of revenue disappeared where would the SP be? I think that is what is frightening long term investors off. Unless theres a compelling reason to stay, we perhaps have 12, maybe 24 months before vaccines are likely and social distancing abolished. I don't think this hit near £5 again. And I'm heavily invested here. Most won't admit, but as soon as this hits £3.50-£4.00 they'll sell, make a 30%+ profit and move on, and learn that by the time you've heard of a company on aim, you're already far too late to make the big money. Feel a bit for those heavily invested at £4.50 or above, sentiment drove the price far above where it should have been.
@Alan
From the lowest close on 15th June it's now up 17% after a rough couple of days. It's hit highs of 305p on 6th July, and 310p on 13th July.
You're asking for a lot! I'm not a huge fan of charts for AIM stocks, but the basics always serve you well. This is recovering without news during a period where buyers are scared of Covid stocks. You can see the Covid stock index on Vox, the market is running scared. NCYT is up trending strongly though.
Growth now is real growth, not some theoretical billion + share price calculation. Show sales and sustainable growth over the next 12+ months and you'll get the markets cash. Give NCYT a little more time to get the news out on sales and developments and this is the winner. Everything else is short term pessimism after a kicking. Very understandable, but time to shake that off and see the direction this is headed not just on the chart but fundamentally too.
Remember also it is in the BOD’s very best interest the share price gets to or exceeds the year high by September as there bonuses and rewards package will be based on it. If i was the CEO and i had some nuggets in the pipeline i would do what serves my best interests!
@CocaColaKid thats why I'm invested here. It's the only 'safe' covid play for me - sales, profit, and new products too. I've been happy to hold here and most were expecting a great June number - 10m+ capacity so even the most bearish would have expected £40m+ sales. So £22.5m is a big negative surprise. Sure the 1H +900% in sales looks great, but even through to May it was already +400% vs 1H19 (£40m vs £6.3m), but it really should have been +1,100% increase if they had achieved £40m in sales for June.
Like I said, something strange happened in June which is unclear, and if it continues, that will have significant impact on valuations (pretty much halving expectations). I'm hoping its a one off but with no news expected on this front until either the full interims or next monthly update - it will be a worry to see how the stock moves in the coming fortnight. Only positive I can see is they announce saliva-based testing and getting a chunk of that £5bn UK govt tender.
@Simple00, £3.80/shr is meaningless. Thats just 1x sales you are basing on. Remember the saying.. sales is vanity, profit is sanity, cash is reality. Only good thing here is that NCYT is generating a lot of cash, and the last RNS said there is "expected to be greater cash generation in the second half of the year". How much remains to be seen, but I would estimate a cash balance of around £60-70m by year end at a minimum.
"this has a lot of support already, we can see that even after a brutal shake and no real news for weeks on end, the share price recovered."
The share price has far from recovered, some recent entrants will need 75-100% to break even.
Yes like Simple says, this has a lot of support already, we can see that even after a brutal shake and no real news for weeks on end, the share price recovered. We're in a clear upward channel now. We had the Half Yearly which didn't deliver the response traders wanted and those guys are pulling out until they catch wind of the next RNS.
There is good sticky money here though, if there wasn't this would have popped yesterday as sentiment was poor.
If anyone's worried about this drifting all the way down to the low 200s or whatever again, it's not something you need to stress over. You'd need a large selloff for that to happen again. You can have dips and small shakes by the MM, those are common across all AIM stocks weekly, but the direction looks good with future figures to show growth and new news to give this momentum.
Remember why this has got a kicking - NCYT haven't told the market anything interesting in nearly two months.
Some vague news about R&D? Some new products which we'd already expected, and no news on margins or sales? Something about a push into the US?
It's all vague and washy. You can't get away with that while the market thinks Covid is a bubble. We're lucky this is mid 200s and up trending. Everything else is dying a slow death day on day. We're recovering because we have actual cash coming in and growth. Good luck to anyone else in anything else, it's all tanking, check your charts.
A few solid updates and this will gain momentum and confidence, and we know it's all coming. We can see it happening in the background, the video production, the documents found online about sales and contracts, mobile developments, and new product testing etc. It's all there, just the market needs informed and hopefully that's soon.
Simple00 Thanks for you well researched information.
For clarity, it was 215 on the 15th June a month ago., time flies when you are having fun eh!. Reached 315 yesterday so following today's close we are now back closer to that low than the highest it has been in the last 6 weeks.
With no further news expected for a while, will we continue on a downward trend for the at least the next couple of weeks?
Matt Han **** per chance,.....
@Matt
How many Covid stocks made even half that in the same period?
Actually, while you're at it. How many companies in any industry make 20+ million a month in sales in their first few months of selling any product?
Seriously - you all say the RNS was good/great.. Really? June sales £22.5m really is pants. Until there's a very good reason for this - I expect investors to stay on the sidelines here.
Œuf corse we over the pond are devastated bruv.
BTW, it is good to know that we are not alone in our bafflement!! Maybe tomorrow it might go +200% and catch us all by surprise! haha. I might actually follow some of the others by putting my lucky socks on, wear my lucky shoes, and put my good luck pine cone outside etc etc.... :-)
Thanks Usain, same as yesterday this BB is rather busy and I have not seen your earlier posts yet. Some light reading for the evening. Good luck with both your and your friends investments.
After the rather good RNS yesterday, just wondering if our fellow shareholders in France are just as miffed about the negative price reaction yesterday and today? For some reason it would seem that this company is not flavor of the month. Perhaps if the French government were more positive towards it, this would help...and ours come to think of it..a nice anglo-french accord. So if the next RNS is a stinker, will that mean the SP will increase 10 fold?!?