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Hi Wilson, -
M&A scheduled for any time between now and end of June.
Be great if we can get it done sooner rather than later, - then watch the change in sentiment take the sp higher in record time.
Only 70 million shares in issue and no need for a placing..
Totally agree Wilson. I can't add anymore if I wanted, and I do. Maxed out and will see how this 1 plays out. Just shy of 4000 shares. Sure as hell aint selling at these prices or anywhere near. I started out with nothing, will leave this world with nothing. What have I got lose, nothing. Forgive the Monty Python sketch. Nerve racking times, but been here before. Not going anywhere.
Couldn't agree more Wilson well said.
My view is I would be very surprised if the II's didnt know more about the situation than we did, we PI's are bottom of the food chain here.
Equally I would be surprised ( I may be wrong) that BR sat holding whilst this fell. They have strict Risk profiles and who is to say that they haven't been algo trading or knew the news was going to be released. Did they only have 7 mins to react before 30 plus percent slump? i doubt it.
Hi maestro they already had 100mil cash so hes working on no m and a hence we will have circa 200 mil by year end. That's taking what we have, evidence has been posted we supply at least 20% of the fit2fly companies biograd etc etc that's not being taken into account as yet.
Promate is selling very well, yes Dhsc say they have enough for the year but fit2fly can cut their prices and times by using promate, again not factored in.
Variplex still currently id's all strains and only recently on the market again not factored in, so in my opinion even with the current log jam I'm completely confident(as you can be) that we will end the year with a min of 200 mil cash.
I've not even touched on versalab or lft launched and also about to be launched.
Thoughts anyone?
@Maestro
It's cicrca £ 130-140m ish based on the first Quarter results and its forecast to grow to £ 200m by the year end.
We will have a much clearer picture of the entire situation, trading position, next gen LFT products, forward plans, cash at bank etc etc by the H1 unless a bid comes in beforehand.
For me personally i will give GM until at least then to turn the situation around. Frankly its takes just one decent win worldwide to completely change investors views, but each to their own.
i'd rather see a holdings in company RNS to indicate they have increased their holdings!
Porky
Where has 200m cash in bank come from?
OK well lets look at the glass half full then instead, far better to be a pessimist...
Black Rock can sell the Fcking lot all 2 million shares worth £ 17m without telling us and enjoy circa a £9m to £10m loss on it.
I don't think thats right Porky. they don't need to announce below 3% and in France it's 5%
https://www.handbook.fca.org.uk/handbook/DTR/5.pdf
https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/library/practical_guide_major_holdings_notifications_under_transparency_directive.pdf
@AK_Gabba
No - they need to advise at every 1% point - those are the rules of the Bourse.
Lets see what they do....
@risehill1
With respect you are confusing mass testing requirements with point of care PCR testing. You don't go to Hospital and have a kidney removed to be tested with an LFT do you? Likewise a LFT wont know what new Variants are trying to come through. The LFT has its uses but we are not comparing apples with apples.
Regarding the outdated indy news article, pro-mate was released to reduce the steps in the process and remove the requirement for cold cabinets so it was a material improvement in the process and did the job. The implementation issue was regarding staff training during a pandemic. This was later improved.
Further we can see that the minimum order was £ 150m and the invoices are some £ 23m short. So best guess is that the dispute is over whether DHSC settle the remaining bill under the contract or not? - this will most likely be the dispute.
However, irrespective of what we may all guess is the dispute, goods have been delivered in good faith. We don't know the amount of the dispute but we will soon. IF novacyt have delivered products in good faith they will need to be paid for them simple. Novacyt will have held back products for this client which they could have supplied elsewhere.
The arbitration period under the contract is UP TO 28 days. My guess us they will reach some kind of agreement in that time. No point dragging it on.
Time will tell.
blackrock went below the 3% threshold in their last holdings in company update. They could be selling and we wouldn't get updated. Below is the % of their announcements since Nov 2020
30/11/2020 3.54%
12/01/2021 2.95%
25/01/2021 3.02%
10/03/2021 2.99%
11/03/2021 3.00%
12/03/2021 2.81%
Black Rock and all the other II's for that matter will be wanting to speak to management and understand what has happened here before doing anything. From the Independent article I get the impression that the government has decided it wants to go for fast and easy tests rather than PCR testing at point of care. Govt wants mass LFT testing leaving PCR tests to the superlabs. So it is not so much a case of the Novacyt product not working, but rather the issue is cost, time and need for trained personnel and specialist equipment.
I am using ROUND figures here for simplicity.
Now interested to know what Black Rocks next move will be here?
We know that In March IIs were playing the stock, buying, and selling to flip a couple of percent.
To keep the math’s simple let us say deals were between 8 and 9 Euro = 8.50 Euro and let us call that £7.40 SP in March.
I do not know what Black Rock first brought in at, but the holding moved about from just over 2 million to a bit above and bit bellow during that time, but for the purpose of the calculation let us say they hold 2 million shares as at today and let us be further conservative and say that after short selling and manipulation in that period they average £ 7.
That would be an exposure of over £ 14 million.
The SP has crashed to £ 4.
Black Rock are in the business of making money, serious money. They know the market and are not in here for 20% they are in here for MULTIPLE returns. So, what will they do now?
If I were Black Rock, I would buy as much stock as I can at £ 4, at least another 2 million shares if not more to not only half my average cost but also for greater control. I would then talk to the other funds involved and I would be on the phone to GSK or any other player saying let us bid for this. The IIs now control X and we will support a bid at Y. It has cash at bank of x, market leading tech and its revenues at your PE ratio would add significant value to your companies bottom line.
This is an absolute “no brainer” move.
Alternatively, I could cut my losses and sell the lot at £3.50-£4 and take the hit, but you do not make profits that way, do you? Black Rock would rather make profit than file a loss on an account. Or they could mess about dipping in and out shorting to get a couple of percent points each go however that will take a bloody long time in view of the sudden crash.
So what’s next?
Interested in other thoughts on this?
Pork’s