The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Dont hold your breath for an announcement, this is the Secret Service we are all invested in. Loose Lips.....and all that BS............
The long and short of it is we are so far undervalued against the fundamentals and financial metrics that we are now likely one of the number one targets for a takeover (why that is I will leave to the conspiracy theorists). This wasnt the case a few months ago. So we have 2 possible outcomes. Either the company boosts the share price through the expected contracts / guidance, which in my view will come in the next week or two, or we will get bought out. What that buyout price is is anyones guess, but I wont accept anything less than mulpiles of this unjustifiably low mcap.
We aren't going to see that sort of premium until we can forecast what our revenues/earnings are going to look like long term. Currently even our CEO is more or less saying 'the future is too uncertain to even have a stab at a forecast'.
All the research on here is pointing towards a very positive outcome however. If we continue to integrate our instruments and tests into the NHS framework then that provides long term revenue guarantees. If the patenting of SNPsig turns out to be as meaningful as we think it might then without doubt the future is bright and the SP will take care of itself!
Jungla, we must also remember the recent Thermo aquisition of Mesa Biotech, which was done at 10 x the company revenue. $45mil Rev, $450mil cash purchase price.
Concerning a possible take-over bid, it was argued on this board last night that rarely a company is taken over at a 200% premium above the share price at that particular moment. It just so happens I was invested last year in a biotech company that was taken over at a 250% premium!
https://www.beursduivel.be/Aandeel-Koers/612902/Kiadis-Pharma.aspx
These big premiums often happen with stocks that are not listed on the main stock exchanges and that are left at the mercy of private investors (with all their fears and anxieties) who are simply incapable of figuring out the true value of a certain business. Both the buyer and the seller of the company concerned, however, DO know what the business is really worth, and that is why you sometimes get such large premiums to the SP when a business is taken over.
Might I further add that until just before the take over, the BB of the aforementioned company sounded just like this BB has been sounding lately: the CEO is worth sh*t and should resign, the communication is poor, why all the radio silence, etc., etc.
Keep the faith!
Bramley it's like midsummer again. Treading water just under or around the £3 mark. We knew the company was doing business we just didn't know how much. Anyway. We are still here, give thanks for that. Long & strong.
Porky, thanks for those views. Starting to make sense.
It's always complicated. The smaller companies with great potential are always (almost) bought out.
From ncyt perspective also makes sense. By being part of a big company there are more opportunities and certainly more funds to go after things.
Downside is always you possibly lose the entrepreneurial advantage that the small company had and made it successful.
MS
Good afternoon B2HS2L
I think your £30 is a much more realistic figure. Gm said he wanted to get to midcap status. 2 billion would make us around that kind of figure given a pound or two. Looking at it overall i reckon that would be a fair value IMHO. I agree with Porky that it kind of all fits against the points raised that MAY indicate a take over. Certainly I am sure it would give a windfall to a great many people. With the SP being so stale investors are just holding which is confirmed by the volume today again of 0.68% . I watch this everyday and when we were in a normal phase we saw regularly 3% of volume traded on the bourse.
Just hold on to your golden tickets everyone
regards
Bramley 1967
An offer of £30 / share would allow me to collect £160K.
That's more than I thought I would get when I invested.
But I would have to rely on two other shares performing *10 better than they are now, before I could be comfortable.
So I would like an offer the board recommends, at a much later date, when turnover of
genomic sequencing products is much higher.
Any offer now is not likely to be recommended, because those same genomic sequencing products
have not had traction time to prove they are truly market disrupting, thus adding value.
Good luck to all when your time comes to exit, unless you know your price now.
Thanks for your reply porky . It won’t be the first time black rock have tried to instigate takeover talks between big pharma companies . It will definitely be worth keeping an eye on black rocks holdings they had a maximum of 8% in one of the below trying to instigate a takeover .
Old story for 2014 but shows previous form .
I’d imagine most people here would be over the moo n with an offer of £30 a share right now ?
https://www.fiercepharma.com/m-a/leading-pfizer-and-astrazeneca-shareholder-blackrock-wants-megamerger
@Saintsmith
It's a number of factors for me and yes the grip room article completely reflected where we are, it just endorsed what i was suspecting.
1. The key one for me was that I emailed GM with a specific point about Vatel Capital, I don't expect big companies to always respond obviously however, this a small AIM business and normally i would get a reply, in this case it sat with him for two weeks, i followed up and then got the canned PR agency reply. I feel that he no longer cares about shareholders and that's a significant shift in position and i question why?
2. The increased activity of Blackrock, i suspect its on behalf of a client. I expect the holding to be declared shortly. That in itself doesn't mean a bid likely BUT it currently fits. Blackrock have led countless deals in this sector, likely the client is Themo Fisher best guess BUT it could be anyone.
3. You can't just bid without financials and DD, they finished the year end and the full accounts would be ready April at best? I suspect a) these may be being looked at b) they put a message stating along the lines that "full plans on the direction of the business will be issued in H2" and this is because the deal will be done by then?
4. They have zero desire to see the SP rally as GM will already have an exit price in mind. Again this fits with the grip room notes.
5. There have imo been numerous situations where the company could be incredibly vocal about deals, heck they could have put out news on two of them for sure, but no, nothing.
So yes, whilst i would like them to drive this business forward, i believe the companies own objectives may have changed?? has GM gone from being driven to increasing the company value to; well I have my 3.2m salary now, i'm comfortable now, perhaps merging into a bigger player with a big pay off is not so bad??
Time will tell as above is pure speculation but its how i currently feel
Porky
I'm happy to believe you. And I think you're right too. Maybe not £50 quid though!
But COVID is not over, the UK is a small place, and what we're forgetting is that much of the World still needs this kit. And vaccines too. And will do for years.
We all want the SP to rise and we all want some positive news as that is what the market wants. I was happy with the TU save for the forward outlooks lack of any clarity or visible excitement. It certainly didn't generate any or we would not be in the position we are now. I want to start seeing what the company intends to do with its pile of cash, to grow it into a bigger pile. I am confident from all the job roles relating to the NHS and inf discovered, that a contract is imminent. I am especially frustrated by lack of inf regarding split of earnings , I have a feeling, no proof, that we are less dependant on the UK then we imagine. I also think it would have taken very little to drop a short RNS of Jan earnings , it would have reassured the market in general. They are obviously not concerned by the SP intraday or they would have dropped the Jan earnings. This to me indicates that whatever is in the pipeline will sort out the now floundering SP. I think all will be a lot clearer within the next 2/3 weeks. Regarding T/0 , it is almost a dead cert but as to timing and who , haven't a scooby. K
Hi porky , I do remember you been massively against a take over a few months ago . You seem pretty positive towards one now .
What has changed in your opinion ? I understand the 8 out of 10 factors from the grip room article may have changed your way of thinking , it certainly struck a chord with me .
If Porky is correct then I will be retiring at the ripe old age of 31 before the year is out!
I hope this prediction of yours is correct Porky... cos your £50.00 prediction is a looooooong way off now!
Yes, there is. A bid is due soon imo, lets see.
Watch this space.
T1 either later today or tomorrow confirming Blackrock increased holding.
They can declare that within "a reasonable time frame" normally 48 hrs, probably still adding today. SP could spike north this afternoon when they remove any artificial sell orders that don't actually exist that are keeping the SP in this channel,
SP kept in this channel to enable block buying around the £7 level. 100% market price manipulation.
But with little retail SH activity they can get away with it. Lets see what happens
On a positive note we will find out soon enough
Radio Silence from GM because "unofficial discussions have taken place" and its a case of completing the DD before something official is released to the market as an effective done deal.
Last thing they need is pesky retail buying in and forcing the SP higher but with 70% in France probably little chance
I could obviously be wrong but this is what it looks like imo
There has to be logical reason why,hold for gold.