Sativa Wellness Group #SWEL, the UK-based CBD business give London South East an operational update Watch Now
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Your Comment "One comment made in AGM that is not yet reflected is that they are taking advantage of the R&D tax scheme which should limit corporation tax to 10-12%, not 15% and 19% you use for 20 and 21."
I would tend to agree, however the interim report, page 20, note 9 (income tax), indicates not 100% certainty.
My judgement was therefore to keep to the conservative side until we hear more. They have utilized 12% in their figures, where it could be finally 10%. As with anything new, I am cautious, in particular when dealing with HM Inland Revenue
I will update the analysis file indicating my cautious view!
I have however incorporated the "Tax losses" that have been bought forward from 2019 within the 2020 calculation (hence the 15.73%)
superb as always shaun fella, greatly appreciated
Thanks Shaun , lot of commitment to this share
Your time is much appreciated
Off to work a happy investor
ShaunP, again thanks for your excellent speadsheet of forecasts. One comment made in AGM that is not yet reflected is that they are taking advantage of the R&D tax scheme which should limit corporation tax to 10-12%, not 15% and 19% you use for 20 and 21.
Top notch estimating Shaun, much appreciated :-) Mouth watering and I think you have been a little conservitive.
With regards to PCR detection of viral load, if it is increased those who are presymptomatic or asymptomatic with same load levels as those with dead virus will be missed. In key settings its no good detecting only the most infectious.
The LightCycler 2 has been discontinued since 2018. Wonder if Roche failed at building their own.
Hearting the spreadsheet
Should have added although unit sales pale in comparison to test sales a purchase would secure exclusive supply for Nova which is far more valuable than units sales of 300x£10k, 700 units in phase 2.....
There are some valuations for competitors of IT-IS at end of doc https://tracxn.com/d/companies/mygopcr.com
Just read report Shaun, thank you , fantastic job, would take me a year!
In section waiting approvals is France , earlier in rep think page 3 you have as approved. K
There's barely any money in machine sales. Nova are relabeling units with some customisation to software. IT-IS have been supplying Q32's to Nova since 2014. They signed a world wide exclusive deal with Roche in 2011.
Possible "vertical integration" target?
Thanks Shaun, will enjoy studying the calculations. The situation is evolving daily for the better wrt the sp and that is going to keep you busy for all of 2021 and some!
highlighting the versatility of genesig tests to run on many platforms ...the lamp tests trials were with optigene at a local hospital along with the new antibody test trials in southampton i live about 3 miles from primerdesign the lights are on. Sorry i dont really understand figures but they must look good as share price rising and testing figures are rising i play chess though badly and try to work out next move in the story
Yes , thank you very much Sean .
I’ve just read through that in the bath after a 12 hr shift and it’s kept me more than awake .
Regards to your comment on the Covid 19 passport for cruise ships and monthly checks . They indeed will be huge and I feel this will be the norm for airlines and immigration departments to and from many of the worlds largest countries .
I feel the pressure for this Covid free passport will mount from politicians and world leaders to help get the travel and tourism sector back moving again as so many people’s livelihoods depend on it .
There are too many islands and countries that only really have tourism as an income to not do this .
Although the hardware for the q16 & q32 is IT-IS, the software is likely to have been a joint effort
To get the best from a manufacturer's test kit, tailoring of software is likely (good guess)
No doubt at the present moment the big question, how many thermal cycles should be programmed, in order NOT to pick up old debris or insignificant "viral load" that nobody would get infected from and the patient is showing no symptoms.
Quote from the web -
"Introduction. Most users of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) would describe it as a fairly fast technique, taking about 45 min to an hour to complete 40 cycles, depending on the particular protocol and instrument used."
But is 40 cycles too many??
Thanks so much Shaun P.
You clearly have much financial insight and are prepared to devote a great deal of effort to keeping our feet on the ground.
Fair Value ranging from £7.24 to £9.79 seems to accord with what we appear to know in the public domain.
There may be much more but we can only speculate on what we don't know at the moment. It's so easy to get carried away with NCYT until we have all the facts.
Profit jumping from 60.2 million (30 June 2020) to 266.6 million (31 December 2020) should be a major milestone unless something more significant occurs before then.
Thanks again. I frequently spend hours working on spreadsheets for scientific analysis so have some understanding of the effort involved.
ShaunP, just to add to your post regarding It-is life science ,their name is on the rating plate inside the q32 lid .
"largest shareholder now is Octopus-I am very reliably informed that L&G have sold out."
Nothing yet showing on Stockopedia (not sure how good their holding information is for AIM)
Legal & General Investment Management Ltd.
Investment Advisor/Hedge Fund holding 2.5 million (no change since April 2019)
Octopus Investments Limited - 300K ( reported 31st July 2020)
It could be an interesting development, especially if more UK Institutions get involved
Not that many shares to buy!
There are lots of very strong links between various companies including I suspect Roche & Primerdesign.
I think from memory the key person who started up IT-IS was from Roche
What does the above instrument remind you of ? perhaps the q32?
Current IT-IS http://www.itislifescience.com/
It is a small world within diagnostics, and I suspect in these "darken days", there has been plenty of co-operation in the development of new technologies - eg the Hampshire Hospital LAMP trials
"Inspirational and I suspect you were very much respected by colleagues in your 'day' job. Thank you."
You are most welcome
As a retired "Financial Controller" to a previous German trading subsidiary (very profitable) it is great to receive a few thanks.
My monthly managements (Excel with links via MS Query) were very detailed, they would spot a "potential problem" a mile away. You could say that the UK Trading subsidiary set the "gold standard" for management reporting back to German HQ.
Having comprehensive timetables (who is doing what & when) for producing year-end accounts, very important, it also told the Auditors when they should come in!
Much was lean't in the "rag trade" (listed LSE company) as a trainee accountant, ACMA & ACIS, (Chartered Secretary)
My gut feeling is that Graham Mullis has the support of some very able & hard working staff, with the added help of professional outsiders when required. eg Chartwell Consultants who were appointed on 15th April.
Again today, a close family member reminded on how good the wording is within the Novacyt RNS announcements. As qualified Company Secretary I review the words very carefully, not just once but again & again. (then compare to previous announcements, eg the difference between the words "Sold" 30/3/20 and "Supply" 29/09/20
The wording can tell a great deal about the Chief Executive Officer and the company and what the company is achieving!
ps, No respect from my wife during the day job! (wife works as a Midwife, but fortunately she sleeps a lot during the day time hours as she works nights)
Hi shaun ... Usa ...roche highly thought of in states touted by trump very publicly. Genesig. Runs on roche diagnostic remember reading early roche pcr all had genesig labels on
"This is awesome work. Hugely appreciated!"
Thanks for your comment
This is the eleventh upload since the start of June, when I wanted to get the key points from the RNSs being issued.
Many of the links have come from contributors on this web-site, which I monitor fairly closely
Very often they remind me - Eg ShaunP , please note this, which is very useful
By working together we can get a much better idea what is happening,
It is important to note that "outside factors" are of key importance
I was reminded this morning that there was a strong correlation during the summer of the number of new Covid-19 cases around the world to Novacyt's share price!
Keeping up to date what is happening around the world is key to our successful investment, what are the threats etc, eg vaccine (which I think is along way off, and may not even materialize)
Looking forward to Primerdesign obtaining a few more large contracts eg supporting care homes and a contract
for the supply of Covid-HT (Cambridge Lighthouse).
Another major aspect is that they have delivered on everything they said they would, the only exception perhaps is not getting a major contract in the USA Market (still to come?)
Excellent piece of work Shaun-thanks for sharing , extremely magnanimous of you and hugely useful.By the wat I think the largest shareholder now is Octopus-I am very reliably informed that L&G have sold out.
One of those was me, just need time to read and digest. This is a brilliant piece of work.
This is awesome work. Hugely appreciated!
Sterling job Shaun!!
You the man.. (fist pump emoji)
You are a legend Shaun for the effort you have expended on your financial analysis document. Inspirational and I suspect you were very much respected by colleagues in your 'day' job. Thank you.
ShaunP you do a fantastic job baring in mind you don't have a sales ledger in front of you, I noticed you've put the price back at 7.15 going forward , also estimating conservatorily that govt contract will only use 500 machines a month second half of contract?
The requirement for testing will taper off through the year and you are obviously unable to factor in new products obviously, however it still gets to 1 billion pounds of sales by the end of 2021, remarkable, and yet with a big sign off in any of the other big countries it places that figure significantly north.
I'm not an accountant so be gentle but you lay it out so well. Tks again.