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Can't complain about 132 million profit, now nailed to the mast. Still running in dark mode for variant detection, promate use, LFT, and antibody detection (if vaccine passport has been binned what is this going to be used for, maybe plasma treatment?).
Think the market is too fickle for a boom at least the fear has been removed. Novacyt are running a tight ship, nothing too radical in here, back to waiting.
Wasn’t aware of that b2hs2l . Thanks.
Saintsmith - for your info:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NCYT/completion-of-novaprep174-business-sale-rxqni7r68dtcdl9.html
Don’t forget we were heavily involved in HPV and cervical cancer screening back in 2014 . I expect us to revisit this strategy via NPT q16 testing once we have our Q machines more in place with NHS and private companies .
Novacyt Strategy 2014
The focus of management in 2015 is to develop the infrastructure required to accelerate the commercialisation of the NOVAprep® platform initially for cervical cancer screening. The target markets will include Asia Pacific and those developed markets which have yet to convert to liquid based cytology which represents over 50% of the cervical cancer screening market. The current global cervical cancer Pap smear screening market (according to Transparency Market Research) is estimated at $3.0bn in 2014 and growing at 6.3% per annum. In Asia and other developing markets Transparency Market Research estimates the Pap screening market is growing by over 8.1% per annum. The Company therefore believes the cervical cancer screening market represents a significant opportunity for the NOVAprep® platform.
Some countries are evaluating the use of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing as the primary cervical cancer screen and in 2014 Transparency Market Research estimated the HPV testing market to be worth $624.5mn and growing at 8.3% per annum. While some parties believe HPV testing is a threat to cytology testing for cervical cancer screening, Novacyt believes the market opportunity for NOVAprep® remains strong and is growing.
I know all the well researched know this off by heart but for those fairly new or a bit nervous.
Novacyt has invested significantly in supporting the UK market during the past 12 months and now has over 50 field specialists servicing the NHS across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. In addition, Primerdesign and Microgen Bioproducts, Novacyt's wholly owned subsidiaries, have been included in the National Microbiology Framework for Diagnostic Goods and Services (Lot 1) published by PHE for a full range of clinical products, including tests within the Company's accredited portfolio.
That's over 50 field specialists covering the uk.
@ Truimph1 , Novacyt will never" go back" to being a one trick pony. It was a small relatively unknown company struggling financially but already first to market during the Ebola crisis and numerous others. It has over 550 diagnostic tests in its portfolio and now it is a recognised brand and with the cash it has this will be transitional for Novacyt. I have no doubt that their current portfolio sales will grow immensely, just by being recognised as a go to brand.
With regards to a roadmap I totally agree with you 100 % but feel due to the dispute G.M has deliberately kept plans low key for obvious reasons.
I did wonder if he had a major acquisition planned pre dispute and decided to shelve it , again for several reasons , not least he may be having to keep a lump sum in reserve, dependant on outcome of dispute.
With the amazing R & D and ability to bring their products to market fast I personally am not at all concerned about their ability to move swiftly to the midcap they desire to be both through organic development and new acquisitions. If you hold GL if you don't please refrain from unsettling holders,we have all endured more then enough of that for the last few months. Nothing new we have not all debated to within an inch of our lives.
Sorry triumph. To late in the day to wade through that. Results tomorow are the all important.
I've done my research. Let's see what tomorow brings.
Best you sell up then triumph1 why ever have you bought in if your so down on the prospects.
To clear things up butchers, my definition of a one trick pony:
Revenues derived from one, or "from a group of products that solves only one specific problem". Your definition may be different and you may see versalab as a new revenue stream despite it being marketed and pretty much solely used for covid testing only, but I believe my definition is aligned with the markets definition and the reason why it is valued as such.
Mr Market no longer cares for covid related products unless they are groundbreaking and lead to significant contract wins, which even then will still only lead to a step change in SP approximately equal to the cash vale of the contract give or take the weeks of SP overshoot (good enough for 95% on this BB, but not good enough for large institutions). Diversification in revenue stream is key to sustainability which will lead to organic SP growth, but is currently non existent, unless as you say i have missed something due to lack of research.
Those two words again; diversification and sustainability. We haven't seen either as of yet or any credible roadmap to take us there. Just more "next generation" covid related products. So will NCYT become a specialist in covid related testing? Nothing wrong with this, but i do get the distinct impression that the company is unsure of what path to take next. NCYT are at a juncture where they must decide on a path to take and have a solid roadmap in place that investors can rally behind. Otherwise, if covid disappears, NCYT goes back to being a nobody.
Triumph1. Versalab and their mobile labs are being rolled out.. it's easy enough to research.. also it-is have expanded its manufacturing premises and hired more staff. There are now around 50 new staff to cater for the new nhs framework. Microgen have the the pathway series of tests and are up for a new contract.
Lots going on..if you care to check.?
Our end game is for a pharma or diagnostic giant to buy up NCYT and all of us can retire for good or buy the holiday villa or yacht we always wanted. GLA.
I have throughout all the ups and downs over the past 18 months held on to my shares , never once have I thought of giving the away.
I read this BB with admiration and sometimes despair..Mostly admiration with all of the efforts from those who really know the markets admittedly I am not one of those , but have full faith and confidence in where this can go.
I have in the past added comments that some may feel are somewhat strong criticisms of the CEO.
If we do ring that bell tomorrow I will retire, which has been on my agenda for some years now as I am nearing my past sell by date already.
I truly wish everyone new and long term holders that this delivers what we are all here for.
Good luck all.
Bowtie
Pretty certain that they have plans and that the company is ahead of the curve, let's face it, if they were not ready to deliver, would not have brought the results forward by a week.
Also, unless NCYT have ambitions to become an MMF, a "high growth" company with ambitions to be at the sharp end of the diagnostics market with half its value in cash is a bit odd. Have they ran out of ideas to take things further? Not sure what to do with a big pile of cash? Plans about how this cash will be used would be nice and now is exactly the time to make a move.
The NCYT wish list is growing. Lets hope GM doesn't leave us with more questions.
Fail to see how the entire DHSC revenue can be under dispute, not like they have paid nothing to date and not like they are not still using our equipment.
Porky, I agree. The market needs audited figures, that will give NCYT the foundations to move onwards and upwards. The entire DHSC revenue can’t be up for dispute, therefore x amount will be discounted which will at least provide some transparency.
As long as the cash hasn’t vanished it will give funds the facts they need to be able to start buying in. The PE, NAV, EBITA will actually start to show how undervalued this is rather than still displaying 12 month old data.
Whether we rise, stay flat or drop a little we will all at least understand where the company is at in its journey.
I have not posted anything for some time, suffice to say I am fully invested in the company and have not parted with a single share as values fell significantly. Tomorrow shall be the first indication of whether my faith in the company and its products is justified. I am quietly confident.
We already know that pre-dispute the revenue for the year was going to come in at €311.6m which is about £ 267 m. It was also suggested that EBITDA was going to come in at €210m which is about £180m and that cash at bank to the year end was coming in at €101m which is about £ 87m.
The burning question will be what will the provision for DHSC dispute come in at? This is what I am looking for clarity on tomorrow.
Mcap tonight is a mere £ 251m so its already priced in on worse case scenario imo.
Once this is out the way, it will be a couple of weeks until the H1.
Based on what we know: -
Last FY H1 came in at €72.4 million (£63.3 million)
Cash at bank of £ 18m - SP was £3.20
Rally started soon after
This FY H1 will likely come in €130 to 140 million+ (£110 million) we already know that Q1 was €83.0 million (£72.6 million) so another £ 35m in Q2 looks plausible?
Cash at bank of £ 120m to £140m+ - Currently our SP is a fire sale values under £4.
No matter which way I dice these numbers they reflect a materially higher Share Price than where we are tonight. And that is without all the additional product line revenues.
I genuinely think we are on the cusp of a major bull run here. Unless they announce that they are going to write off £200m of sales tomorrow which Is highly unlikely the only way from here is up.
Not long to wait now anyhow
Good luck all,
Pork’s