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HillSeeker,
Thank you for your considered view, particularly re long-term prospects. Very informative and refreshing.
The first post is wrong.
Just check the major funds.
Look At RAM, they are 271k shares down, but this dates june 2020.
So yes, total funds holdings (first page) looks 330k shares down, but it isnt.
And this goes for all of it.
You need to count yourself all the précise holdings every month to have the full picture.
Thats what i do and havent notice any significative decrease. Little one yes, but from before april 9.
So sheeba , you have just outed your self for what you are , a de ramper !
Admitting you have sold at £4.28 and are editing for a lower entry point .
That explains all your negative , bed-wetting , woe is me posts .
From now on I am reporting your posts for distraction!
@ Bluelight
Yes, I totally agree with you there. For every sell there must have been a buy. Someone has bought them.
I have said before, at the time of the last AGM the company (and Mandy in particular) was scrambling around trying to collect a minimum of 25% of votes from some 25k individual investors in two different countries; something I should imagine they don't want to have to repeat this year, but a French legal requirement nevertheless.
It does seem strange to me that, as Porky and other investors have not infrequently pointed out, GM used the same phrase regarding an opaque outlook that has seen our SP plummet since January. There was no need to use it again in the latest TU, especially when he knows what an adverse effect it would have. All he had to do was alert the market to the DHSC dispute and give the figures regarding sales (the private/internal and UK Gov split was useful, but even more detail here would have been advantages). The additional statement on an unclear outlook was completely unwarranted, so why did he do it?
There has been much speculation regarding suppressing the SP in order for at TO to happen. I suspect it is much less sinister. GM is probably thinking he is being matter of fact and honest with shareholders. If the SP drops short term – so what? It will only recover once all the figures emerge, as in his mind, longer term, this is going to be a leading mid-cap £1-2bn diagnostics company. He may be thinking, he has already told shareholders this, and if you don’t believe him, more fool you. If a few thousand PI with small holdings of a few hundred or a thousand quid drop out and are replaced with three or four II that will make counting votes at the next AGM much easier for Mandy. Three or four II holding 25% between them would be ideal for Novacyt.
Keep the faith and joining those dots – £1bn and SP £15 will take a while to achieve but could well be in the realms of this year, with 2bn a little further down the line.
[Note: The SP has strongly correlated to UK infection rate over the last 12 months; at some point this correlation has to end and will begin to reflect sales income instead. IMO this is company is materially undervalued (a bargain) and a clear long term hold if ever there was one, DYOR, GL all.]
Bluelight,
I agree with you and am very interested to know who may have bought all the shares. Given the current fall in sp, could it have been a shorter? GM himself? No clues. Just speculation, again.
By unreported holdings, do you mean that they are unreported due to the time frame? Entirely possible. I forget how long they have before they need to report.
You say that the the shift to move shares from retail to II, was a stated goal of NCYT. Is this for real? Did GM actually mention it at the AGM or on an RNS? Someone else had mentioned it here but I thought it was speculation.
If it was based on facts, and I'd known about it, I certainly wouldn't have bought any Nova shares. Is such an aim even legal? If you're right, it would explain a lot of things such as negative RNSs.
SC, looking at the bidstats, it’s looking more promising than where we were a week ago!! I’m one of the fortunate ones in this stock. I’m not underwater as when I initially joined this over a year ago, I took out my initial investment and left the remaining profit. It’s still a massive drop but those underwater I’d say are still in for a good return if the PR machine comes out of hibernation and update us on progress. Not mailed me tut tut lol. I’m well, hope you are too. Off hiking this afternoon, one man and his dog:)
I take any of these holding numbers with a pinch of salt. If retail and II investors have both reduced someone has bought them, and yet we don't see a holding report on that. Personally I feel the unreported large holdings will have increased. The fall was a play to shift more shares from retail to II, a stated goal of NCYT.
I have no idea what they did after the last RNS. I didn't check at the time. I was too much in shock and like you, didn't see the RNS until it was too late. I sold at 442.78 because the sp was dropping so fast that I thought I might lose every penny. I've stayed here to see how far it will go before I can buy again with some certainty that the sp will not drop again.
Some say that there's a lot of manipulation going on by IIs, MMs, shorters, rampers, derampers, pumpers & dumpers. I prefer not to comment anymore and just stick to the facts. As I said, the big holders may have a change of heart tomorrow or even this evening. There was certainly a very big movement from yesterday to today. I'm going to keep an eye on Morningstar to see which way the sentiment is going.
That’s quite a drop but to be expected following last RNS announcement. Did they dump at last RNS?
By the time I had read the last RNS the SP was already in free fall!!
If the tenders come good then there will be a turnaround and IIs will be back in. The problem with IIs on aim, they can run a good stock down and leave the PIs underwater before they get the bad news!!
Not a big fan of IIs on aim!
Exmex,
I checked the Morningstar a few minutes ago and both the Funds and Institutional holdings have gone down considerably:
Funds have sold some more and now stand at aggregate -331,531 shares (-9.43% drop in holdings).
IIs have gone down from + to -117,676 (-3.77% drop in holdings).
Total holdings for the two branches are now down -449,207 (-6.77% reduction of holdings).
Of course, there's every chance that they haven't heard about the new tenders, and these holdings change all the time.
Thanks for pointing out that there was another page for IIs.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xfra/nyz/ownership