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Just the way its going to be for a while Woody. When your only a 5% profit margin business like spoons it doesn't take a big impact on the top line to send you red. If 20% of your customers decide to stay away for a bit that will hurt. Inflation rising, bills come first so expect some regulars to become irregulars. VAT rate rising soon. Tax rate rising but I don't expect you'll be seeing any profit anytime soon so that's fine.
On the other hand, UK will probably start reducing testing in the Spring/summer. Hell, if BJ's doing away with self isolation then what is going to be the point of testing right. We are world leaders in prematurely treating this pandemic as endemic but it will take months and months if not years for this to become globally endemic. 2 thirds of our business is conducted overseas. It's called risk diversification. Spoons are bound to the policies and culture of one government.
Don't forget the seasonal ramp up of testing come October, oh and the testing ramp up for the next variant.
I'll say it here and now. Expect another VOC by April.
Drb83 why not just live in the garden shed until your 80....
Maybe so, what does the market see though. A covid free UK with economy booming and everyone jetting off on fun filled holidays. Spoons jam packed. No more risks of variants. Everyone just cracking on as if 2020/21 didn't happen. UK immune to what is happening in the rest of the world. If so, then yes I see a nice little bull run on sentiment. However, it is a very unlikely situation in my eyes. Call me pessimistic or realistic but a new variant of concern is mutating as we speak and regardless of its qualities the world will likely fall straight back into mayhem. That is where a strong balance sheet will come in. Spoons bs is going to be dipping under £300m very soon. What is your mcap again?
Trading update was poor because of the covid crap, but the sp has recovered because the market is looking 6 months ahead...... Booooommm
I don't short Capri so no. Any ideas how loss making Spoons are funding the day to day working capital. Back in July they only had £45m cash, which covers just over a month of wages. I bet they can feel those loan covenants breathing down their necks. The economy can't open quick enough for spoons. Just hope everyone is happy mixing with Covid positive people when their vaccines wear off. Tim's hopeful though.
Drb83 your short on spoons must be getting painful....
It has to been seen as a top up opportunity imo.
Balance sheet strong
Thousands of machines out there
POC market set to grow significantly
Hundreds of tests to CE mark
R&D constantly working on the next big thing
Bioinformatics dept ensuring no quality issues.
Global distribution chain already established
In with the NHS
In with WHO
In with UNICEF
70% op margin
40-50% EBITDA margin
35-40% PAT margin
32% cash conversion
Cash burn is minimal (biggest spend is people)
Dispute mostly priced into balance sheet (nothing favourable priced in, yet very good chance we'll get something favourable)
Two thirds of total sales in ROTW so no longer bound by 1 nation and 1 customer.
ATH global covid testing
Our top 2 products approved and selling in UK. More to come.
Soon to be released self test LFT
BJ on the ropes, a new leader may want to restore faith in British diagnostics, security against global shortage.
Very competitive on price
Very competitive on quality (good combination)
Plans commenced on US growth strategy
World will learn to live with covid but not in 2022/23.
Highly likely that a new variant will pop up somewhere and cause a new wave of testing demand. Likely this will be repeated.
Mcap of £180m with £100m in cash and £40-50m annual profit.
CEO still needs to prove himself
Even at £180m mcap, where are the director buys
What happened with DA options
Absolutely shocking IR
We have unfortunately been lumped in with all of the other shyte covid companies that haven’t sold a bean yet .
The government are yet again acting as if covid is over . Even though cases are sky high , as are hospitalisations and deaths have never been higher .
So what do the government do ?
Reduce testing thus reducing cases .
So the sun and mail readers and avid bbc viewers believe them .
It will back fire , mark my words .
So in the meantime we are been marked down , I imagine many will be loading up before results and could quite easily double their money before results .
Unfortunately to many long term holders even £4.50 is after results will not be enough to excite after the big losses this SP has incurred recently .
Ignore them K, nothing but traders trying to get in at a lower entry point .
Think most folk on here have sussed who they are now .
At least you have always been consistent with your support .
Hear, hear, Kaeren.
Concerted group doing their thing of distraction and spreading fear, panic even. They are using figures off a chart and by stating them as fact and repeating them are trying to get into investors psyche. Shout 250 or 220 if only to get it down another 10p and buy back in.
The chart is a rollercoaster, and it has been going up and down whilst the facts remain the same. That is due to a degree of uncertainty, fear and changing sentiment only.
Our decisions as investors should be based on fundamentals and not sentiment, as the later can change in an instant. Another one from Warren Buffet:
“If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes”
We know that revenue will be very close to £100m this year; that’s phenomenal for a company this size, and they have no debt and plenty of cash to weather any storms and to build out the business. Plus, further windfalls can come at any point. We know that UK Gov have put all sorts of obstacles in Novacyt’s way for unfathomable reasons but that the company have, again, been agile and taken this in their stride. They are expanding very successfully in the private sector and overseas markets.
Yes, DA is probably not overly focussed on the SP at the moment – he will be concentrating on product development and driving sales. The tradeshow this week is critical in building the kind of long-term business links for which investors strive.
By all means use the dips to gain bargain entry points but don’t so anything silly – stay focused on the fundamentals and the long-term value. The results will be out next week and after that (probably Feb) an R&D update. Better times are ahead for sure. The more we respond to the background noise the louder it becomes.
All IMO, DYOR, GL LTH
Kaeren…..I think our views are 90 percent aligned so no worries. I know you say it straight as do I.
If you are having hate emails, I would strongly suggest that you report the emails, especially being female (no disrespect intended). I had the very same thing happen to me, that’s why I removed my old profile photo and why I deleted my original account on here as it showed personal details leading back to my real name. We all have a duty to protect others by reporting hate mail.
Just general sentiment causing the sector to fall. That'd be fine if we didn't have c£100m plus cash in the bank. At the end of the day thats why I'm so relaxed. We are the only one who has a war chest to use to turn us into a huge player in diagnostics. Wjat I'd like to see next week is a plan and ideally an indicator of how we will use the cash to grow. It has been sat in the bank for a year now, time to put it to use. Get us away from being lumped in with the likes of ODX, GDR, AVCT etc.
BYP to make it clear our posts crossed and pigs was not a poke at you , it was used as some people are just pigs as a kid used the phrase pig dog as the worst someone could be. If I had something to say would level it directly.
Yep illegal use of being positive I'm one of them dam rampers as well, tryed a new tactic today didn't look until ten mins ago that didn't work. How can we possibly be down these amounts(I know low volumes yada yada yada).
I'm now of the mind giving anything away now would spoil the surprise but also beginning my own meanderings re a large holder lending their shares.
Some posters here are definitely making the most of their posting history being unavailable to see.
They can play their games now. Fuck 'em...
Youre not on your own Kaeren.
Not long now until we see whats really happening.
The worst scum are those who were supportive and then come on here talking crap. Without doubt a group trying to force price down, no idea about Anders and his supposed millions , missed that rumour mill. All I know is the vile messages to me via email have increased. Supplied by me to Shaun P and used for many years with no issues.
Vipers nest when genuine holders are attacked and constantly called rampers. Pigs who revel in ODx's issues and those prolific posters who continue here with the same old distraction techniques engaging all day long with paid lackies to disrupt the board.
Charts are crap on a share like this, used to manipulate price only.
So this ramper has gone nowhere , sold feck all and await inf.
ODX is a completely different story. They had nothing before, had nothing over the last two years and are still at nothing so the sp is moving back. I always called this company out as being a joke too.
Yes we are trusting this new guy but that’s how it goes. He looks good in his investor relations in Amryt. We should have cleared out the rest of the BoD in Novacyt including the non execs like James. I’ll also be pushing novacyt to remove Mandy from her current role. It’s a joke that she still holds that position.
Is there a need to know how 88e are doing on the NCYT board JMarsh1? Maybe cos we are down (yet again) you are helpfully pointing out other shares that aren't!!! However let's stick to how badly NCYT are doing.
I've lost faith because of lack of communication. Whether they aren't communicating because they can't be bothered/aren't allowed to/there is nothing to communicate I don't know. Either way it's not good news. I'm at the stage where my investment has gone down so much I might as well hang in there.
What is seriously worrying is that we’re just putting faith in some bastard we have never met. Look at what has happened at odx with their outgoing CEO on £0.5m a year. Ok they haven’t sold so that’s a key difference but could we be going down the same path? Perhaps they have no ****ing clue and it is just jobs for the boys.
Harchris….I said at the beginning of the month that this might go to 220 prior to results as there would be no communication before then. There’s no point selling though in case those results are announced earlier and there are some nice surprises. If this rises or falls 50% on results it will still have hardly any effect on my holding due to the current losses on paper. So I’ve already written this stock off in my mind. If the results are poor, I’ll trade this but won’t do what other people do and announce my buys and sells as those people are scum.
7%. ****ing hell, this is ugly
You're right on this byp without a doubt - the average person takes their cue from the share price however so now they've lost faith because of the slide, not because of the lack of communication.
@yellow
Not thinking to sell. That’s Already to late
Just disapppointed About BOD Leasing us in the smoke